Here is what is driving NKTR today…

Many more innings to be played in the IO game.



I bought more share of NKTR at 11:30 AM at $84.68.

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Same, I picked up a few more at $84 around the same time. Looks like the market is realizing this was an over reaction and its at $92 as I type this.

The drop today is pretty silly. The market definitely overreacted to something it probably shouldn’t have even reacted to. I believe the #'s were 51% for Keytruda and company vs. 42% for Opdivo and it’s helpers in progression free disease or survival.

Here is the problem. First, these are two separate clinical trials with two separate patient populations. The only similarity is the drugs mechanisms of action and the fact that the patients studied had non-small cell lung cancer. You CANNOT compare two separate trials in this manner. You just can’t. There are too many unknown variables between the study groups that can change outcomes. Opdivo’s patient population was specified to be a group with a high number of tumor mutations or high tumor mutational burden (TMB). Merck’s patients were essentially all comers without regard for mutational burden (PDL1 status was determined but didn’t keep you from receiving Keytruda). However, one should note the safety data for Opdivo did look better compared with Keytruda.

The other issue is this: What does this have to do with NKTR? Nothing. NKTR is collateral damage here because of it’s BMS partnership. Nothing material has changed with NKTR 214 or 262.




Monkey wants to offer you a banana sundae with a cherry on top for the above post. Why? Because no matter how grizzled an investor you are, when one of your companies nose-dives upwards of 16% in one day, the feeling in the tummy is not so yummy. And given the complexities of the bio-pharm space, us primate investors basically have no real assurance we know the reason for the drop is or isn’t legit. So we wonder and try to read headlines which either say nothing––the price is dropping!!!–– or uses a whole bunch of jargon which might as well mean nothing.

So we wait, however patiently we can, for anyone who actually understands things to come along and say, yes, there’s something to worry about, or no, there isn’t.

Your above post makes it clear which of the two situations we have at hand, and it gives excellent reasons for that. That takes away a lot of the tummy ache. That’s an act of genuine kindness to your fellow beings and is deeply, deeply appreciated.

By us all being in this together, we all prosper together. Thank you again.

Monkey (long NKTR as of today at @89.4 'naners)


FYI ……


“The drop today is pretty silly”

I think the good Doctor is right. Zero here clinically or scientifically. If anything, a reflection of the shares that were in weak hands. That’s biotech investing.

Again, the entire IO field is in the early innings. Better get used to this. This happens during every AACR and ASCO meeting. A lot of noise, little signal.



The drop today is pretty silly.
Good I’ve been wanting to pick some up.