Hey remember that inverted yield curve?

Sure, you know, the one that happened in July of 2022, that predicted for sure that a recession was soon to follow? Remember, in 6 to 18 months?

My calendar informs me that it’s been almost two years now, and I’m still waiting.

What’s up?

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@Goofyhoofy while you’re at it, how about the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators? It’s been negative since 2022.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

Also the NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent which has been falling for months even though the NAZ itself has been rising all year until recently.

What do you make of that?
Wendy

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I’ll bet a bob either way on that man.

What else would an Irish man do?

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I think it means they pulled off the soft landing that everyone thought was not possible. And I think it means the economy has been well managed during this time as well. My hats off to them.

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Maybe or maybe not. Goof’s timetable was not for the bottom but the top? I donno

https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SPX

https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24COMPQ

Retail and restaurant sales are up. Hurray. Big ticket sales are down.

I am buying a heat pump soon. Should get interesting. I am getting my second bid tomorrow.

After they screwed the pooch on the front end of inflation they managed to stick a landing on the back end. Overall grade: C+

DB2

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We did better than every other first world country.

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Because of the IRA.

Those Irish.

How would you rate Japan?

DB2

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Stunningly weird for decades now. But conceivably turning a corner and shifting to stunningly abnormal.

d fb

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Hey! Don’t tempt fate! :sunglasses:

Be careful what you ask for you might just get it. Most recessions begin long before made official so that window is far from closed. In fact my calculations see the beginning of an official recession.
Looking on the bright side is this will not be a repeat of the great recession and should quickly end setting up a bull market beginning at the end of 2024

I’d be curious what calculations those are. The stock market goes higher. Company earnings are generally higher. Employment keeps outpacing expectations. Wages are rising. Are there some metrics I’m missing here?

In fact, this link from another thread is … weird, but weirdly interesting. Basic thesis: boomers have a ton of savings, they’re making money because of high interest rates, not in spite of it.

Fascinating, sort of.

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I’m not sure how that’s likely. 2 quarters of negative growth.

There are only 3 quarters left. Need to dramatically turn down for the balance of THIS quarter AND next, then turn back to positive by Q4?

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With the massive amount of government spending going on right now, there is not much of a chance of going into recession. And that spending is going to continue for at least another couple of years.

I like it David. I believe we have a winner. Could it be interest rates have become a positive metric? Not in my world​:rofl::rofl:

Is that what they say around the inverted yield?
I also have read that the recession usually typically follows 18 to 24 months after the peak interest rate rise by the Fed, almost 100% I believe but would have to go back and confirm. Last interest rate rise was 26 July 2023 so may want to start the 18 to 24 month count down from that date… assuming they do not raise rates again

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That would be described, at best, as a weak relationship.

Peak in      Start of     Lag
Fed rates    recession
Jun 69         Dec 69     6 months
Aug 73         Oct 73     2
Jul 74         Oct 73   - 9
Oct 79         Dec 79     2
Mar 80         Dec 79   - 4
Dec 80         Jul 81     7
Jun 81         Jul 81     1
Mar 89         Jul 90    16
Jun 00         Mar 01     9
Jul 06-Jul 07  Dec 07    5-17

DB2

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Mexico, Japan, UK and US ride together into demand-side economics. Want to get poor fast go to Germany. That is where the rich will get richer but not really. First many of the rich will repeatedly lose their companies.

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Meanwhile we wait for the yield curve to un-invert. That probably requires the fed to reduce short term interest rates.

Its not over til the fat lady sings.