HoHumYNWA Q1 2023

Yes, Q1 2023 has been delayed due to other items

#1 - Per prior quarters, I have a “big 3” in sectors. This quarter, technology is the largest with 19.88%, followed by finance - @ 17.86% and shipping 12.88%, With technology, additions primarily to QCOM and GSM. Smaller additions to other tech names. Finance - additions to RA, BNS. Started a FRC position. Shipping - trimming bulkers (GNK, GOGL, SBLK) and quickly building up FRO. Started trimming ZIM from Roth ac. Not significant - but expanded on the miners - had a tiny BHP stake. Added to it. Then started a VALE stake

#2 The dividend basket. In theory, this basket should not be shook up too much. But, since some of the holdings are shipping ideas with variable dividends, I lowered expectations for the dividend basket. But now with tanker additions, the dividend target is periodically being bumped up. GNK and GSL have dropped out. FRO and TRMD have been added. CLCO has potential, but not in the basket currently.

#3 Opportunities to monetize
0-15% - Okay: AMKBY, NAT, GSL, GNK, GSM(3)
15-30% - Good: NAT(2), SBLK(2), GOGL(2), GSL(2),
30%+ - Great: NMM, GNK, VATE, SBLK(3), GOGL(2),

#4 Realized losses
Only the bigger ones (> 8%)
Ugly: NAT (but this still worked), GNK, GOGL
Fugly: VATE, BDRY, ZIM (3)

#5 ETF changes
Slow restart. Added to XLV, started QYLD. Dumped BDRY during Jan 2023 spruce activity.

Not done, but it is a start.


#6. Negative surprises

  • Dry bulk shipping names were somewhat surprising. They pulled back (SBLK, GNK) less than I expected, then bounced more than I expected. Now, some (GOGL, GNK) are pulling back again (that could set up for a better Q2/Q3)
  • ZIM not having a better bounce after decent Q4 results AND the hefty div.
  • GSM’s pull back in early Mar 2023.

#7 Positive surprises

  • Though it has pulled back some, like that QCOM bounce
  • The VALE rise is also a positive
  • Tiny stake with NVDA. But really like the bounce YTD
  • VATE seems to have stalled around $3, but nice recovery.
  • CLCO quietly listing during the bank run drama. Might be an opportunity to snag a position on a company that behaves similar to FLNG.
  • AY end-of-quarter run-up

Top 10

  1. Atlantica Sustainable Infrastucture (AY) - Utility - 6.71%
  2. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Technology - 6.68%
  3. Berkshire Hathaway B shares (BRK-B) - Financial - 4.56%
  4. Apple (AAPL) - Technology - 4.51%
  5. Verizon (VZ) - Technology - 3.89%
  6. Icahn Partners (IEP) - Financial - 3.87%
  7. Real Assets (RA) - Financial - 3.83%
  8. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) - Financial - 2.94%
  9. Flex LNG (FLNG) - Shipping - 2.86%
  10. FerroGlobe (GSM) - Technology (materials) - 2.81%

I should be more thrilled with the result (Q1 +8.02%) than I am. But, I am quite interested in a few ideas now - CLCO, FRC, FRO, RA, GSM that could bounce in Q2 and beyond.

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