Hot models

Hot models. No, not the fashion kind on the runway. There is a long thread here
https://discussion.fool.com/climate-models-running-hot-30886689…
on climate models running hot.

This week Science has an article titled “Use of ‘too hot’ climate models exaggerates impacts of global warming” about a publication in Nature.

www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-e…
One study suggests Arctic rainfall will become dominant in the 2060s, decades earlier than expected. Another claims air pollution from forest fires in the western United States could triple by 2100. A third says a mass ocean extinction could arrive in just a few centuries.

All three studies, published in the past year, rely on projections of the future produced by some of the world’s next-generation climate models. But even the modelmakers acknowledge that many of these models have a glaring problem: predicting a future that gets too hot too fast. Although modelmakers are adapting to this reality, researchers who use the model projections to gauge the impacts of climate change have yet to follow suit. That has resulted in a parade of “faster than expected” results that threatens to undermine the credibility of climate science, some researchers fear. Scientists need to get much choosier in how they use model results, a group of climate scientists argues in a commentary published today in Nature.

DB2

3 Likes

Wasn’t it back in the 70s when climate models ran too cold?

I wasn’t expecting my town on the coast of SC to get so hot so fast. It snowed (lightly) the first winter we lived here (20 years ago), and only snowed again once since. Winters are shorter, spring & summer start earlier–gardeners especially notice. Even the local ocean fish stock are changing…no more cold-water bluefish in winter, more sub-tropical fish in summer.

1 Like

Wasn’t it back in the 70s when climate models ran too cold?

I don’t remember reading about that. There was some concern that all the aerosols we were putting in the air would block enough sunshine to trigger another Little Ice Age.

I wasn’t expecting my town on the coast of SC to get so hot so fast.

Things certainly are warming, just not as fast as the models project.

DB2