"Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves
April temperatures at unprecedented levels have led to critical water and electricity shortages"
54c - 129f.
"As the heatwave has exacerbated massive energy shortages across India and Pakistan, Turbat, a city of about 200,000 residents, now barely receives any electricity, with up to nine hours of load shedding every day, meaning that air conditioners and refrigerators cannot function. “We are living in hell,”
On a globe that is struggling to provide food, water and energy when and it’s needed, Elon Musk tell us we need more people to avoid an economic meltdown.
I wonder if a person dying in 129f heat with no water thinks much about economic meltdown?
Hopefully the future of TMF will include an ‘edit’ feature.
“On a globe that is struggling to provide food, water and energy when and where it’s needed, Elon Musk tell us the planet needs more people to avoid an economic meltdown.”
“On a globe that is struggling to provide food, water and energy when and it’s needed, Elon Musk and the U.S. Supreme Court tell us we need more people to avoid an economic meltdown.”
Fixed it for you
(First time ever a draft opinion has leaked. Politico published the likely reversal of Roe V Wade by the Supreme Court and contraception is likely next.)
The highest they quoted was only 121F (49C). Which is really hot with no air conditioning. Speaking as a person in AZ where it routinely gets up to 45C every summer. Our record is 50C (122F).
At 129F, air conditioning will start to fail anyway, even if they had electricity. I read a few years ago that part of the middle east could experience those conditions in the future, and that those conditions are incompatible with human life. People will have to leave (or, if possible, move underground).
Back in '72 I drove across the Mojave Desert in summer in a heat wave. It was 119. Our car had no A/C, and it was hotter with the windows open than closed! Some plastic stuff in the car started to melt, including a folded tarp, which remained permanently in its folded state. Ah, that '63 Comet wagon sure was a great car…
Reminds me when we were boondocked in the RV one summer in central Wisconsin of all places. It was 95 AT NIGHT in the RV with the windows open and the vent fans running. We had a problem (forget what) that prevented using the A/C–oh, yeah. In the midwest ordinary gas is often 15% ethanol, which I hadn’t noticed, and it prevented the generator from working. No more than 10% ethanol for the genny, I learned painfully that night. I was up half the night with a battery-operated personal fan (a work tchatchke) pointed at my face. The hubster snoozed away as usual. Perhaps I’m the princess (and the pea).
I grew up sans A/C in a slab ranch. On hot nights I curled up on the asphalt tile floor, which was cool.
In fact I’ve only had A/C for about half my life. My first car with A/C, I was well into my 30s.
…The U.S. Supreme Court tell us we need more people to avoid an economic meltdown
This is the one trend in economics that no-one wants to broach: population growth. India is the worst example of population growth that is out of control. By 2060, India will have 2 billion people, and that is with an exodus of 300,000 million. Indira Gandhi carried out a controversial population control program in the late 60s which included a sterilization drive for men with three or more children. To this day, Indira Gandhi has been the subject of wild criticism claiming that she enforced a policy of forced sterilization; in fact there were never any laws or requirements enforced by the government under Indira Gandhi for men to be sterilized. There are articles to this day that state that… 6.2 million Indian men were sterilized in just a year, which was ’15 times the number of people sterilized by the Nazis’”
The population in Germany under the Nazi government was 86 million, the population in India under Indira Gandhi during the time of the so-called “gruesome campaign” to sterilize poor men was 640 million. Eventually, anti-birth-control parties joined together and threw Indira Gandhi out of power. The number of sterilizations fell to almost zero, and birth control was abandoned. In just the next thirty years, India’s population grew from 660 million to 1.2 billion. Population control had failed when it was left to the people as a voluntary measure. Today, barely 2% of sterilizations in India are performed on men. Today 17.9 million emigrants from India work abroad or have relocated abroad to a permanent status annually. India has not been able to sustain its population growth for the last seventy years.
The problem is not global climate change, it is global human population infestation. As India, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Central Asia (notably Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) add another 2 billion people to the planet in the next twenty years, stories like this (North-west and central India experienced the hottest April in 122 years, while Jacobabad, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hit 49C / 120.2F on Saturday, one of the highest April temperatures ever recorded in the world) will multiply.
This is the one trend in economics that no-one wants to broach: population growth. India is the worst example of population growth that is out of control. By 2060, India will have 2 billion people, and that is with an exodus of 300,000 million.
People broach the topic of population growth in economics all the time…and I think your information is out of date. India is far, far, far from the worst example of population growth, and it’s not out of control. India’s total fertility rate has plummeted with economic development. In fact, India’s total fertility rate has now fallen below replacement, and is now only slightly higher than the fertility rate of the U.S.:
For the next 60 years, India continued to focus on sterilization as well as contraceptives and education for girls. Now, Indian health officials say the task of defusing their population bomb is finally done. Late last month, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), a periodic investigation of half a million households, announced a milestone: The country’s fertility rate had for the first time fallen below the widely accepted “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman. (The U.S. rate is 1.8.) “Women are seeing the wisdom in having fewer children,” says Poonam Muttreja, director of the nonprofit Population Foundation of India.
As pointed out in the article, India’s population will continue to grow, because they have a lot of younger people reaching prime childbearing age due to past high fertility rates. But for the most part, they’ve solved their population growth problem. No one thinks that India will ever get to two billion people - the UN puts their population peaking at 1.64 billion, and they’re among the highest of estimates among demographers on population growth. Others predict a lower peak and a sharper fall. As noted in the article:
As India dips below replacement fertility, demographers are now arguing less about how scarily high its population might get and more about how scarily low it could go.
India’s total fertility rate has now fallen below replacement, and is now only slightly higher than the fertility rate of the U.S.
The average age of the population in India is 28, the US 39, Germany 40, UK 40…
which country has the most people of childbearing years? India’s total fertility rate has plummeted … after increasing from 470 Million to 1.1 Billion in 40 years ('62 to '02). the UN puts their population peaking at 1.64 billion These are big unknowns… projections. If the current 2.0 births per woman remains constant… India’s population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060 before declining to 1.5 billion by 2100. The low projection assumes more rapid fertility decline to well below replacement level—about 1.3 births per woman
For example, if India’s current fertility of 2.0 births per woman remains constant that is the UN projection (around 1.7 billion) but if this current generation should increase to just 2.3 births per woman, its population would grow to 1.8 billion by 2050 and 2.5 billion by 2100. I agree that women today are more receptive to family planning in India than in the 70s. But India will fast become the county with the largest population on Earth. India’s total fertility rate has now fallen below replacement…
That number is quoted in Urban areas where the rate is thought to be 1.6, however latest numbers still has the current fertility rate for India in 2022 as 2.159 births per woman https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/fertility-ra….
Apparently, heat induced an increase in testicular chemical reactions and produced oxidative stress, free radicals AKA ROS, which decrease the number of functional sperm.
.
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And, WebMD weighs in on a related subject. (Assuming red light therapy also raises testicular temperatures?) https://www.webmd.com/men/news/20220420/you-want-me-to-tan-m…
These are big unknowns… projections. If the current 2.0 births per woman remains constant… India’s population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060 before declining to 1.5 billion by 2100. The low projection assumes more rapid fertility decline to well below replacement level—about 1.3 births per woman
They’re also the more conservative projections, since the UN tends to have the highest estimates of future population growth. Given the speed with which India’s fertility rate has been falling (it collapsed from nearly 6 children per woman back in the 1960s to about 2.1 today), it’s not at all unreasonable to think that the trend will continue - especially since industrialization, economic development, and urbanization have resulted in declining birth rates in a wide variety of cultures and nations.
For example, if India’s current fertility of 2.0 births per woman remains constant that is the UN projection (around 1.7 billion) but if this current generation should increase to just 2.3 births per woman, its population would grow to 1.8 billion by 2050 and 2.5 billion by 2100.
But there’s no earthly reason to suspect that would happen. India’s fertility rate has been falling, invariably and consistently, for seven decades now. The fertility rate has declined every single year since 1950. That’s a natural consequence not only of the many formal steps the Indian government has taken to reduce the fertility rate, but also as a predictable consequence of the economic development of the country. We’ve seen the same thing happen in nearly every other developing country - as income levels and urbanization rise, population growth falls. There’s no plausible likelihood that this would suddenly reverse.
Regardless of whether the macrotrends site or the Indian ministry’s estimate of the TFR is correct (2.159 vs. 2.1), there’s no way that India is “the worst example of population growth that is out of control.” Large countries like Pakistan and Nigeria have much, much higher fertility rates. India’s one of the largest countries in the world, so it’s big on absolute numbers - but they’ve basically got their fertility rates down to replacement or slightly below, and it’s utterly implausible that they would suddenly start increasing again.
…many formal steps the Indian government has taken to reduce the fertility rate, but also as a predictable consequence of the economic development of the country. We’ve seen the same thing happen in nearly every other developing country - as income levels and urbanization rise, population growth falls.
Also, look at Bangladesh. Over the last two decades the population has increased from 125 to 168 million. The population growth rate has decreased by half, from 2% to 0.9% a year. At the same time their GDP has increased from $51 to $325 billion. The GDP per capita has gone from $410 to $1970, a 380% increase.
there’s no earthly reason to suspect that would happen…
I sold a second home in 2005, saying, this housing (prices) market is gonna crash. For the next two and a half years I continued to hear … there’s no earthly reason to suspect that would happen, this is real estate! It’s “Real”
(A little aside as to predictions…)
I don’t give much weight to the fertility rate numbers for 2022. The best we can actually say is that in 2020, fertility rate for India was 2.2 births per woman.
Furthermore, I should probably correct myself saying that India was “the worst example of population growth that was out of control.”
The urban centers (in India) are some of the most densely populated places on the planet. Immigration out of India has for decades been the greatest number of the any country. India has created an unsustainable growth rate and it has greatly contributed in the global warming that they currently are having to experience.
Going forward at our current rate of depletion of natural resources especially oil and gas I don’t believe that the Earth can sustain more than 2 and a 1/2 billion humans… but that will not be my concern. I’m too old for that to matter… but this was all predicted back on the First Earth Day April 22, 1970.
The GDP per capita has gone from $410 to $1970, a 380% increase.
A better gauge is what has happened the the % of population living in extreme poverty. It matters not only how much bigger the pie has gotten but also how it’s cut up.
I don’t think oil and gas (and coal) are the gating factors. Not anymore. Last time albaby provided numbers, oil and gas consumption was down globally compared to 2018(??). I think per capita, but if he’s reading this I’m sure he’ll correct me if I’m wrong. I suspect some of that was COVID lockdown, but not all of it.
I’d link something, but the sources I’m finding stop at 2016…
The problem is not global climate change, it is global human population infestation. As India, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Central Asia (notably Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) add another 2 billion people to the planet in the next twenty years, stories like this (North-west and central India experienced the hottest April in 122 years, while Jacobabad, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hit 49C / 120.2F on Saturday, one of the highest April temperatures ever recorded in the world) will multiply.
This is an investment board. Please stay on topic.
How can a Fool capitalize on the misery as water issues, energy issues, pollution issues, food logistics snowball?
I mean, if Elon and the Supremes insist on forcing women to bear rapists kids, and then watch them get gunned down in elementary school by ammosexuals, while others starve and get traffiked …well, by God, why not make some money off of it?
India is far, far, far from the worst example of population growth,
I’m sure that’s heart warming consolation to Asian and African people dying of thirst in outta control heat, as their crops fail, and energy prices soar due to wars and Gods whims. But hey, economic figures have improved and GDP is up, and gosh, even if we can’t get it where it’s needed, we can grow the heck outta corn.
What thread count do you suppose the sheets will be on that Motel 6 in space? Complimentary mini-bar?
The GDP per capita has gone from $410 to $1970, a 380% increase. — A better gauge is what has happened the the % of population living in extreme poverty.
Poverty and extreme poverty have decreased. The poverty rate in 1983 was 97%. By 2016 that had fallen to 84%. www.macrotrends.net/countries/BGD/bangladesh/poverty-rate
It has continued to decline since then. Using different measures, the Asian Development Bank found that “the population living below the national poverty line dropped to 20.5% in 2019 from 24.3% in 2016.” www.adb.org/countries/bangladesh/poverty
Not surprisingly, poverty increased some during 2020.
Wheat price unlikely to rise as Govt to continue exports on back of bumper crop www.cnbctv18.com/agriculture/wheat-price-unlikely-to-rise-as…
A government official told CNBC-TV18 that India is well positioned on wheat availability and the stock in April is estimated at 190 lakh metric tonne (LMT) versus a stocking requirement of 75 LMT.
Further, India’s current buffer grain stock stands at 513 LMT and this is double the requirement of 210 LMT for April.
