I’m guessing at least 100,000 units. (Note: The Cybercab is a 2-seater without a steering wheel or pedals)
Would Tesla’s Board of Directors ever shut Elon down?
intercst
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Why should they? They didn’t create Tesla, Elon did.
The Captain
The Board is supposed to be looking out for shareholder interests. Purposely hollowing out a successful auto manufacturer isn’t doing anything to enhance value.
intercst
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Who is doing that?
Why would Tesla shareholders have the company stop at EV? Why ignore the future, become another Ford or GM? I’m most happy with what Tesla/Musk are doing. I would not want a Tim Cook or a Mary Barra running my company or some other cookie cutter MBA.
In any case, if the board had such worries they would not have given Musk the pay package that we shareholders voted in favor of.
No worries!
The Captain
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Currently the NHTSA has a rule that each manufacturer can only put 2,500 vehicles on the road without manual controls (steering wheel, pedals, etc.) each year. Not sure if Musk would just go ahead and manufacture 100,000 steering-wheel-less Cybercabs without trying to get this rule changed or not.
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You can say Tesla shouldn’t stop at EV’s, but that’s not really an argument for letting the EV division become uncompetitive. It’s the overwhelming source of the company’s earnings. If Tesla’s never going to introduce another new “conventional” EV again (except maybe the limited volume roadster), then a clock is ticking on how long it can support its moonshot efforts in true autonomy (rather than ADAS) and robotics. In the face of advanced competition in EV’s, Tesla’s not going to be able to maintain even a slow rate of decline in EV’s relying just on the Model Y for the next few years. So if they can’t start generating real revenues from robotaxis and/or robots in the next several years, they might have some problems funding their capex dreams.
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All you need is to change one word in this narrative to put it on its head.
In this narrative you used a synonym of the right word.
The Captain
In furtherance of discussion, perhaps you might just explain your argument….rather than being cryptic? What do you think is the issue, here?
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I am waiting for the one article in the Wall Street Journal or Barron’s or wherever to do an analysis of what Tesla’s revenues are going to look like for the next two or three years, and then it’s gonna be so fugly it won’t be funny.
It might not be on the scale of the one that sank Theranos in a single week, or others like Enron or WorldCom or Weinstein, (Lehman Brothers, Adelphia Cable, Nikola, Lordstown Motors, etc.) many of which were engaged in fraud - but some were laid low by simple bad business which came to light via investigative journalism after defying gravity for months or even years.
Even if there is a market for a humanoid robot, I doubt it will launch into the tens of thousands as Tesla’s cars did when it “crossed the chasm”. Meanwhile the car company, (absent Robotaxi, which is not a given) is already fading. Can the combination of Robotaxi rollout & Optimus early adapters make up the difference and continue to support the 300pe? It’s a question I expect somebody, somewhere is trying to figure out.
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Well, and here’s the other thing. Even if they cross the chasm, how long will it last?
Tesla had about as commanding a lead on EV’s as a company could ever hope to have. With the initial sales of the Model 3 in Europe and China starting in early 2019, Tesla dominated EV’s the three largest auto markets in the world: the U.S., China, and Europe. Massive, enormous market share.
It only lasted about five years.
That’s how long the head start got them. Five years. Maybe six, if you want to date from the first mass production of the Model 3 in early 2018. They were able to get maybe three or four years of really good profits out of automotive during their period of dominance. Now they face sufficient competition in the three major markets that they are down to sort of ordinary automaker margins, despite whatever revenue they get from sinking so much investment into their ADAS systems.
So even if they manage to get either full (or near-full) autonomy and/or Optimus to actually work, how long before they’re competing against a host of other firms offering substantially the same or better product - with a better idea of how to handle a consumer-facing brand in the face of competition than Tesla has?
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