Since no one has picked up on Hubs’ incredible results, I’ll comment myself:
This is what their adjusted earnings have looked like:
2014: -23 -21 -28 -25 = -97 2015: -18 -17 -27 -12 = -74 2016: -11 -07 -05 -13 = -36 2017: +03 +07 +03 = +20 estimate
Casual observers, who haven’t been following Hubspot, won’t understand what they are seeing, or what it means. Hubspot runs a big conference every year, usually falling in the the third quarter, in September, which normally impacts earnings by a negative 10 or 12 cents for that quarter. A glance above, at 2015 earnings will give you a great example when losses went from 18 and 17 cents in the Mar and June quarters, to 27 cents in the Sept quarter (probably would have been 15 cents without the conference), and back to just 12 cents in the Dec quarter, continuing a steady progression of decreasing losses.
In 2016, the conference was a few days later, at the beginning of October, so it fell into the December quarter, so the big loss switched around, and we had losses of 11 cents, 7 cents, 5 cents, and then a jump in December to 13 cents (without the conference, it probably would have been a loss of 1 cent). Are you with me so far?
This year we went positive 3 cents, positive 7 cents, and this quarter positive 3 cents, in spite of the conference, so it would have been at least 15 cents without the conference. That was a huge move. And next quarter, without the conference that held results back in 2016, they should make at least 18 cents as I see it, and move from a nominal loss of 13 cents to a positive 18 cents. And end up with earnings of 31 cents for the year!
Thus for the year, from 2014 to 2015, losses decreased by 23 cents. From 2015 to 2016 they decreased by 38 cents. From 2016 to 2017 my guess is that they may move by 67 cents. This is accelerating. I did add to my large position today.
I hope that this has been helpful.
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