Hurricane Milton is now a Cat 5 storm, and while it is expected to weaken a bit before landfall, it’s almost certain to hit the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane. There will be a lot of emergency management agencies and media reports urging residents to evacuate, particularly in the Tampa Bay and Fort Myers regions, because those people are in great danger.
Note - it is still very possible that the storm won’t be catastrophic. That’s because storm surge is usually the most damaging part of a hurricane (and the deadliest), and where the surge hits hardest can be a matter of miles. If the center of the storm passes 10-20 miles north of Tampa Bay, it’s catastrophic for that area - the winds will push water up the Bay, with nowhere to go. But 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay and the winds are blowing in the other direction, pushing water out of the bay. With the center of the forecast track running right over Tampa right now, whether that major metro area is horribly hit or only badly hit is on a knife edge.
I don’t recall if we have any Tampa fools, but stay safe and heed the evacuation orders, everyone.
An old telecom friend, discussion boarder, not MF, but others back in early Yahoo days, is in the Tampa area, last one knocked several of his papaya trees down as well as one banana tree, so he is still cleaning that up… And here comes another, rather than get stuck in traffic jams, he’s going to hunker down, ride it out, as many others are likely to do… No fun at our age, definitely interrupts out ‘norma’ lives, interests… Hopefully it works out OK…
As the old saying goes, “Run from the water, hide from the wind.”
If you’re not in a place that’s in danger of flooding and you can be in a sturdy building, sheltering in place is often the best option. He just needs to make sure that the specific location is not in danger of storm surge.
And today, for the first time, the “news” did not run the same disaster pron video, they had been running every day, for over a week, about the last one.
Not surprising. The spotlight is going to move to Tampa/Ft. Myers. Which is terrible for the folks who were devastated by Helene. They had a much better chance of getting help and resources timely while the news media was keeping people aware of the ongoing need for help in that region - the “disaster pron” you disparaged, which is critical for keeping resources and attention focused on a recovering area.
Now, they face a horrible scenario. They’re still devastated - but if Milton hits the Florida west coast in the wrong spot, not only will it suck up many of the resources that had been diverted to help out in North Carolina and the surrounding areas, but all the media focus will shift down here also. Without the constant reminders that drive charitable donations, pressure and supervision on relief agencies, and everything else that helps a recovery effort…things are about to get much worse for them.
A couple years ago, I received several phone calls about a property for sale in Palmetto. Apparently, that RE listing was not the only one that my phone number was added to. Before the last storm hit, I received a couple automated calls from the Manatee County emergency management department warning of a 6-10 foot storm surge, and providing evacuation directions. I mentioned that to my neighbor this morning, and wondered when I was going to receive the same automated calls about Milton. Yup, at 3:30 this afternoon, automated call advising storm surge 10-15 feet, shelters are open, dial 311 if you need a lift to a shelter.
the constant reminders that drive charitable donations, pressure and supervision on relief agencies,
The professionals at Red Cross, FEMA, and the state and county agencies, don’t need to see the same video, day, after day, after day, to know where the need is.
The media keeps running disaster pron (the Fool will not allow the word written the other way) to keep the ghouls watching.
I was watching this video from the Hillsborough County (Tampa) Emergency Management Agency. They advise evacuating at least 10 to 15 miles inland.
I wouldn’t touch Florida real estate with a 40 ft pole.
Also saw this $20 MM real estate listing in the mountains around Asheville NC that appeared to have survived the storm. Zillow puts the rental value at $3400/month.
“No matter where the hurricane hits, half the area affected is going to be on the “wrong” side of the storm.”
No doubt. It’s coming, and it’s hitting land somewhere. But like Al was saying, if it lands 20 miles south then the waters of Tampa Bay will head out into the ocean, instead of being forced inland. That’s gotta be a big deal.
I am so glad I’ve never had the itch to live in Florida.
Looking ( hoping ) for a full on good old fashioned Winter in a couple of months ( or sooner ). The Southwest would be the most attractive place in America in April or early May, when finally sick of Winter and the rain-mud season of 1st half of Spring, not Florida.
Only been to FL a few times, first time to see our youngest Granddaughter born, Pensacola, in '97, then in '99 to watch the Columbia take the Chandra X-ray telescope up to orbit, and once or twice to Orlando for classes for Lucent… Way too flat for this CA guy… Not going back!
Yeah. Once these things form or get into the Gulf, they’re going to hit somewhere. So the best case scenario is if they hit where there are fewer people. Tampa’s the biggest metro area on the west coast of Florida. So even though you don’t wish the storm onto anyone, you’ll have fewer people impacted and less loss of life if Milton hits south of Tampa Bay than if Tampa gets a direct hit by the bad side of the storm.
You aren’t going to escape the negative impacts of climate change. Bouts of wildfires and torrential in rains in California. Prolonged droughts and extreme heat waves in the Southwest. Texas is drying up in the summer and hit with more frequent ice storms in the winter. The list goes on. Where are you gonna hide?
Florida is the canary in the mine. There will be a point when rising insurance costs will make development along the Florida coasts unaffordable. Florida will either have to substantially raise taxes to pay for state-subsidized insurance or downsize its economy. Seems inevitable.
well yeah, we all live under the earth’s atmosphere, everyplace is affected.
Americans have flocked to the warm coastal areas. They luv being able to walk around in shorts and t-shirts year round.
But they live adjacent to that great hurricane incubator, the Gulf of Mexico. Their choice.
It’s kind of turning into a “play the odds” game. Pick your poison. I don’t like the odds in the Gulf coast. But a lot of citizens abhor winter, and would rather facedown 'canes than deal with cold and snow.
I’m donating to relief efforts, do not want to see Americans suffering. FEMA is not going to be able to help everyone.
The “advantage” of hurricanes is that you can see them coming. Gives some time to prepare or run. Compare that with an increase in severe weather and tornado frequency. Night tornadoes are the scariest thing to me. Very little warning, can’t see them coming, and not much you can do about them.
As for risk, I suspect a lot more people are hurt or injured from icy roads in the Midwest than from hurricanes in the Gulf Coast. It’s about probabilities and costs/benefits. The hurricane risk in Florida is balanced by living near the beach. The severe winter risk in the Midwest is balanced by living next to a corn field.
