Reminds me of the local rednecks who play a lot of golf where I live. They can barely move off their barstools. The golf carts get a lot of wear.
Three summers ago was brutal. Suddenly they became believers.
I doubt anyone in Louisiana is bright enough to listen. If they have made up their minds 40 years ago the maturity level is close to zero.
What are you saying that chart is telling you?
Here is a graph of the number of hurricanes/typhoons over the last 40+ years, both total and major (Cat 3 and above).
https://climatlas.com/tropical/
DB2
Have you read the ar6? Do you think your snippet contradicts it?
I agree Florida suck, don’t move here. We have large alligators, snakes, sharks, terrible weather. Absolutely the worst, repeat please do not move here!
Guaranteed.
Anywhere else. Somewhere decent. Somewhere caring.
LOL
How many thousand pages? No, but I did manage a fairly good job with the AR5.
There’s nothing quite like observational data. It is useful to compare them to climate model results (and media stories).
What do you make of the lack of increase in major hurricanes/typhoons over the last four decades as the earth has warmed?
From NOAA (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory):
“There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for changing observing capabilities over time), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity…”
"Concerning the potential detectability of Atlantic hurricane frequency climate change signals, Bender et al (2010) estimate that detection of an anthropogenic influence on intense (Category 4-5) hurricanes would not be expected for a number of decades, even if a large underlying increasing trend (+10% per decade) were occurring …
“As in the Atlantic basin, global tropical cyclone frequency timeseries do not show evidence for significant rising trends. For example, globally aggregated tropical cyclone frequency (tropical storms plus hurricanes, or hurricane-strength storms) and global landfalling tropical cyclone frequency for either Category 1-2 or Category 3-5 tropical cyclones (1970 to ~2017) do not show significant trends…”
DB2
Looking at future projections there is a fairly wide dispersion in model results. Some models use the absolute sea surface temps (SST) while some use relative SST – how much warmer the storm genesis is compared to average tropical SSTs. The absolute models project increases, the relative versions not so much.
DB2
Except NOAA does not say that. Your lame sources say that. You are misinforming yourself and others.
What does NOAA say about climate change and hurricanes?
Rapid intensification is also projected to increase. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain. The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.
Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
Google AI result
No, NOAA says that storms are not the same as they ever were:
The number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) in the Atlantic Ocean has doubled since 1980. The chance of a tropical storm becoming a Category 3 hurricane or stronger within 24 hours has increased from 3% between 1970 and 1990 to 8% between 2001 and 2020.
The most damaging hurricanes in the U.S. are three times more common than they were 100 years ago.
The probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has increased in the Atlantic, NW Pacific, and globally.
Warmer oceans add energy to hurricanes.
The warming atmosphere has more water to fall as rain.
NOAA predicts that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal.
Sea level rise is expected to increase storm inundation levels during hurricane surge events.
Rainfall rates within tropical storms and hurricanes are projected to increase by about 15%.
Actual number of storms in Atlantic by decade. A reliable source. Something you generally do not offer us.
Except they do. Did you notice the quotation marks?
"There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes . Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for changing observing capabilities over time), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.”
“As in the Atlantic basin, global tropical cyclone frequency timeseries do not show evidence for significant rising trends .”
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That means the models are not concrete.
This was for their 1000 year model.
The conclusions in the report were different. This paragraph is central to the study’s conclusion.
Downscaled projections using CMIP5 multi-model scenarios (RCP4.5) as input (Knutson et al. 2013) showed increases in category 4 and 5 storm frequency (Fig. 7). However, these increases were only marginally significant for the early 21st century (+45%) or the late 21st century (+39%) CMIP5 scenarios. That study also downscaled ten individual CMIP3 models in addition to the multi-model ensemble, and found that three of ten models produced a significant increase in category 4 and 5 storms, and four of the ten models produced at least a nominal decrease. While multi-model ensemble results are probably more reliable than individual model results, each of the individual model results can be viewed as at least plausible at this time. The projected changes in Knutson et al. (2013) were not as large or significant as those of the earlier study by Bender et al. (2010) but were based on a larger sample of models. Based on Knutson et al. (2013) and a survey of subsequent results by other modeling groups, at present we have only low confidence for an increase in category 4 and 5 storms in the Atlantic, but higher confidence that the fraction of storms that reach category 4 and 5 will increase.
The models are not concrete, but you are missing the point. The lack of trend is in the observation data (as the earth has warmed).
Also, as noted, even if there were a trend it would be decades from now before it would be a significant one and observable.
DB2
Not so.
The trends are for my powerful dynamic storms.
Meaning if the number stays the same that is not the issue.
The issue is how many of the storms do more damage. That is increasing.
Prior when the storms did less damage that would not matter. Storms that matter are increasing.
If humanity sees a lot of trees falling in the woods…
As of October 3 of this year, we had 12 named storms, slightly below the average in terms of total storm count, and an average number of hurricanes which would also fit this year’s total nicely within your chart of ‘number of hurricanes cat 3 or above.’
But Helene and Milton are not just ‘cat 3 or above’. They are larger, carry substantially more rain, and higher wind speeds, and rapid intensification because they were fueled by warmer waters than 50 years ago.
Not more hurricanes, but the worst of them are worsened due to climate change.
Helene and Milton are worsened by the increased water temps even if they do not change the total ‘cat 3 or above’ hurricane count. If you disagree, please feel free to buy uninsured property on the gulf coast.
The number of ruinous storms that matter is rising.
You could say the number of storms that do not matter is declining.
The most recent IPCC report (AR6) has a summary chart that indicates when a given climate signal is expected to rise above the noise of variations. This is called time to emergence (Working Group 1, Chapter 12, Table 12.12). One of the categories is “Tropical cyclone”. They show that currently “evidence is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal .” Not only is this the case currently, but also for between now and 2050. This is also the case for between now and 2100 under the extreme scenario (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5).
DB2
The damaged caused by hurricanes is a different issue than the trend in occurrence. Even with a lack of trend as shown above the damage can be greater because of increased population and much more built-up property (called value at risk, VAR).
Since the world is a richer place the losses have to be normalized for VAR.
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2020.1800440
“This paper reviews 54 normalisation studies published 1998–2020 and finds little evidence to support claims that any part of the overall increase in global economic losses documented on climate time scales is attributable to human-caused changes in climate, reinforcing conclusions of recent assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
DB2
One would hope we learn to build better-- stronger and in better locations.
In the Carolinas we relied on water transportation for years. Many communities are near rivers for water and transportation. Perhaps they learn that is no longer a good idea.
One would hope we learn to build better-- stronger and in better locations.
I am reading that a lot of the damage in the Carolinas is due to removing building requirements and blocking efforts to make houses safter. This wasn’t due to not knowing how, but it seems gov’t and building lobbies deliberately blocked the efforts.
That is always the battle when it comes to building codes. Better requirements raise costs for everyone. And builders are willing to go to court to fight changes. But there’s a price to pay in storm damage and insurance costs.
Let’s hope they build back better.
