Immigration Labor Shock

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-s-immigration-population-census-bureau-46dfac4a?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

America’s Immigration Labor Shock

The Census Bureau says the U.S. is on a path to net negative migration.


By The Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal

The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that U.S. population growth slowed significantly in the past year amid lower levels of immigration. Restrictionists will cheer the news, but a flagging labor force won’t make America more prosperous. … [end quote]

Moving from the overall U.S. data to state-by-state data, five states—California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia—lost population in the latest period. California (-229,077 net domestic out-migration last year), New York (-137,586), Illinois (-40,017), New Jersey (-37,428) and Massachusetts (-33,340).

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/what-the-census-says-about-the-u-s-population-in-six-charts-ecb647fb?mod=hp_lead_pos9

What the Census Says About the U.S. Population, in Six Charts

The South continues to gain more people than it loses, while the Midwest sees its first influx from within the U.S. for the first time in years

By Jon Kamp, Max Rust and Brian McGill, The Wall Street Journal, 1/28/2026


<snip interesting charts.

No region adds people like the South, and that remains true—South Carolina was the nation’s fastest grower. Also true: The pricey Northeast and West continue to send more domestic migrants elsewhere than they gain…

The U.S. added slightly more babies, but not enough to move the needle significantly on population growth. … [end quote]

With an aging population and drooping Labor Force Participation Rate the U.S. needs immigrant labor. This is a pendulum that will swing back in the future.

Wendy

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Except for the actual bleeding part:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/health-care/public-health/mortality-rate

Pete

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It will raise wages, supply/demand.

The Captain

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The numbers seem to include asylum seekers and maybe even illegals.

We have a quota system for legal immigration. Does this imply quotas go unfilled? Isnt there a waiting list?

Yes we need a temp worker system that fits our need for immigrant labor. But first we must deal w masses of illegals and asylum seekers waiting years for cases to be heard.

Then maybe Congress will update our immigration system.

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The annual cap is 675,000 for all legal immigration.

It has not been increased since the cap was created in 1990.

ONLY 140,000 are allowed for employment purposes. The other 480,000 are for family sponsorship.

The longer we wait, the worse this gets. Plus, we just got rid of a bunch of immigration judges so those asylum cases are now going to take even longer.

https://hias.org/news/trumps-attacks-immigration-court-system-what-you-need-know/#:~:text=In%20just%20six%20months%2C%20the,on%20individuals%20applying%20for%20asylum

As we’ve mentioned, 65 immigration judges have been removed from office under pressure from the Trump administration. To put this number in perspective, just six judges were removed during President Biden’s four years in office. Those judges who remain, now with an even more daunting number of cases in their dockets, face pressure to decide cases hastily — without the deliberate thought and care that asylum cases deserve. One recently departed judge described this process as an “attack on the rule of law.”

The administration has also instructed ICE to arrest immigrants at courthouses around the country, part of a broader effort to target immigrants at locations — also including schools, places of worship, and hospitals — once considered off-limits.

In just six months, the impact of these changes has been significant. Asylum seekers have fewer opportunities to seek assistance or counsel in navigating an already complex legal system. Judges with higher caseloads and less time to deliberate are more likely to rush decisions, enabling the administration to turbocharge deportations without sufficient reasoning or cause.

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Aren’t you the dude who was whining about politics on METAR?

Anyhoo, with the influx of domestic migration into the Midwest and South, maybe the federal aid received per capita in those states will finally come down.

Why can’t we do both at the same time?

This may be shocking, many of those being deported were in the system, going to their check-ins, with work status. Somehow it was determined that we’re far better off just deporting them. That’s true for both undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers. Super dumb.

Changing our immigration laws alone won’t help us. We’ve managed to allow an extremely hostile anti-immigrant ambience to take hold in the US. Any immigrant still wanting to come here must be facing some ridonculously dire situations at home. Immigrants with options are already choosing to study, work, and live in other countries.

There’s a growing trend of citizens leaving as well. 2025 marked the first time in 50 years that the US experienced negative net migration. 2026 is fixin’ to be worse. Booyah, we’ve joined the club! Time to celebrate with our fellow countries Pakistan and Sudan!

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Very true.

We’ve been trying to get immigration reform for at least 25 years. Probably longer. What we are seeing now is what one party has wanted the entire time, hence why no reform has been enacted (i.e. they didn’t want it).

There was the bracero program after the War, but it was shut down for various reasons (including abuse of the workers, and that one side didn’t want them). And we’ve been stuck with the current “system” ever since.

The irony is that we are now dependent on migrant labor, and it’s going to hurt business (especially ag) when they don’t have enough workers, which will also result in higher prices for the rest of us. Which brings us back on topic.

As a side note, I’m not sure how visas are allocated for people bringing over fiances and spouses. 1poorlady came on a fiance visa (1990s), and it probably took about a year to process. Either some of the 675K are allocated for that, or they are separate (and uncapped?).

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I think those are excluded from the 675k.

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Yes, and just maybe they move instead because of:

  • Better job opportunities or promotions in another state, company transfers

  • Lower cost of living, especially cheaper housing, utilities, and everyday expenses

  • Lower state and local taxes (income, property, and sales), especially for high earners and business owners

  • Wanting to be closer to family, including parents, adult children, grandchildren, or extended relatives; (this is frequently cited as the single largest stated reason for interstate moves)

  • Moving to support or care for an ill or aging family member

  • Following a spouse or partner who gets a job or transfer in another state

  • Relationship changes such as marriage, divorce, or forming a new household

  • More affordable housing, including larger homes or homeownership opportunities unavailable in high‑cost states

  • etc.

I suspect moving for political reasons alone is probably not the driving (ha-ha) reason.

Pete

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Re: why can’t we do both (deporting illegals and allowing temporary immigrants) at the same time

We are doing that w our temporary visa programs such as H1B. But flooding the system with lots more temps while we have millions of illegals makes no sense.

Logic says more temps should be phased in as illegals are removed.

Let’s hope Congress has an eye on this and decides to take action.

It seems many illegal aliens self-deported.

The 2.2 million voluntary exits dwarf the 675,000 deportations through more aggressive means, such as being forced out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

“To celebrate one year of this administration, the U.S. taxpayer is generously increasing the incentive to leave voluntarily for those in this country illegally — offering a $2,600 exit bonus,” Noem announced.

I wonder if a self-deport person can sneak back over the board and self-deport again?

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10 more Thanks!

The Captain

This is so cute.

They’ve had decades to “take action” and can’t. The Legislative part of the government is effectively paralyzed, and seems to be unable to do anything about it. That’s why so much is now being done by “Executive Order”, which numbers keep growing exponentially under administrations of both parties.

If we don’t figure out how to solve this issue, I suspect we will not have the opportunity again to solve this issue.

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I apologize, I should have been clearer. That’s not what I meant. You had mentioned…

By both I meant strengthening a temporary worker system AND dealing with undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers. In my mind that doesn’t necessarily mean deporting them. We need more resources to help work through the immigration court backlog.

I think it’s stupid to deport people who’ve been productive members in our society. My preference would be to create a path toward citizenship for them. We have several industries in dire need of labor.

That’s logic? What’s logical about that?

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The system is the way it is because that’s how those in power want it. Let me let you in on a little secret…shhh. Uncle Milton and the Miltonians LOVE illegal immigration.

"But are things as clear as they seem? Elsewhere, Friedman also said:

Look, for example, at the obvious, immediate, practical example of illegal Mexican immigration. Now, that Mexican immigration, over the border, is a good thing. It’s a good thing for the illegal immigrants. It’s a good thing for the United States. It’s a good thing for the citizens of the country. But, it’s only good so long as it’s illegal."

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There can be no solution to our illegal immigration problem without doing what every relatively advanced nation in the world does EXCEPT the USA: issue an difficult/expensive to counterfeit photo ID card linked to a unique social security account, and make the employers seriously liable for any payments made to illegal workers. US citizens would get it for free, immigrants or their first USA employer would need to pay for theirs.

KABOOM. The incentives for foreigners to enter the USA and break the law would greatly diminish. No card, no work, no money, no retirement. Effective nforcement without creating an oppressive police state would become possible. Without such a system enforcement is a joke or a horrible tragedy.

ALL DISCUSSION OF THIS ISSUE THAT IGNORES THIS SIMPLE FACT IS LUDICROUS. Or, am I an idiot, and somebody can explain to me how our current system is supposed to work?

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Turns out I am a bit more at risk than I expected. We are turning out our excess management. We are top heavy in management according to our executives. The rank and file workers are going nowhere. They have jobs. This can change as the economy changes. For now management is the target.

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You’re not an idiot. I have for -literally- decades been saying that you have to go after the employers. You do that, and suddenly 90+% of the problem goes away. The employers are why the workers come…because there are jobs there. If the employers aren’t incentivized to verify documentation, they won’t, and they will exploit the cheap labor. It’s not difficult (our employer was very diligent with 1poorlady, keeping track of her valid permit dates until she got her citizenship). But with few penalties, the incentive favors the cheap labor.

Deporting maids at the Motel 6 (disclaimer: picked at random; I have no idea about their hiring practices) is not productive.

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As it probably should be. It’s something of a conundrum. My former company rewarded performance with promotions (that was really the only way to get a significant raise). Eventually, you end up with so many VPs that you have to “re-org” to give newly promoted VPs something to do. Stock helped keep the VPs from leaving. So we became (and possibly still are**) top heavy.

Some of the lower-level managers could get laid-off in bad times. But it seems no VPs ever did, and I think only one or two directors (and they were the Peter Principle in action).

**I have no knowledge about the current situation since I retired and have almost no contact with anyone there now.

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In this, I think our company is going after the VPs and below. The VPs are not immune.

Think of it this way: these layoffs are worse for the US economy.