In depth Iren analysis

1. Company Overview

IREN (Iris Energy) operates as a renewable-powered compute infrastructure provider. The company began as a vertically integrated Bitcoin miner, building and operating large, power-dense data centers in regions with abundant low-cost renewable energy (hydro, wind). It is now pivoting to a dual-engine model: (1) Bitcoin mining and (2) AI/high-performance computing (HPC) data centers for large cloud and enterprise customers.

2. What the Company Does & How It Makes Money

IREN’s core competency is designing, building, and operating energy-efficient data centers at scale. It monetizes that infrastructure in three primary ways:

• Bitcoin mining: Deploys proprietary mining hardware (ASICs) to provide hashrate (computational power) to mining pools and earns block rewards and transaction fees paid in Bitcoin. “Hashrate” is simply a measure of how many cryptographic guesses (hashes) the hardware can perform per second; higher hashrate means a larger share of network rewards.

• AI cloud and GPU services: Leases GPU-based compute clusters and related cloud infrastructure (networking, storage, software stack) to AI and HPC customers, typically under multi-year or usage-based contracts. A key anchor is a multi-year AI compute agreement with Microsoft, which materially increases contracted revenue visibility.

• Data-center services: Provides colocation, power, cooling, and sometimes build-to-suit facilities where customers supply their own hardware but pay IREN for space, energy, and operational services.

Other income items (e.g., energy-related financial gains, rebates) have also been meaningful historically but are not core to the long-term thesis.

3. Revenue Mix and Profit Drivers (Recent History)

On the latest fully audited FY24 numbers (year ended June 30, 2024), Bitcoin mining remains the dominant economic engine:

• ~74% of total revenue + other income came from Bitcoin mining.

• ~1% came from early-stage AI cloud services.

• ~25% came from “other income,” including a large realized financial gain likely tied to energy/hedging.

Despite these contributions, IREN still reported a small net loss in FY24; the reported P&L was heavily influenced by the one-time financial gain. More recent FY25 figures from management/analysts (not yet fully audited) suggest rapid topline acceleration (roughly ~US$500m revenue and positive net income), driven by both expanded mining capacity and the initial ramp of AI compute contracts.

4. Sustainability of the Business Model

Positives

• Structural cost advantage: Long-duration access to low-cost, largely renewable power underpins competitive operating costs in both mining and AI data centers.

• Strategic pivot to AI: Multi-year, multibillion-dollar AI compute deals (e.g., Microsoft) and ecosystem partnerships (e.g., Nvidia/Dell) move IREN up the value chain towards contracted, higher-visibility infrastructure revenue.

• Conservative leverage (so far): Debt levels appear manageable relative to the asset base in a capital-intensive industry.

Risks

• Crypto cyclicality: Bitcoin price and network difficulty still heavily influence cash generation; adverse cycles can compress mining margins materially.

• Capex intensity: Scaling AI data centers and GPU capacity requires substantial capital commitments, increasing execution and financing risk.

• Customer concentration: Large hyperscaler contracts improve visibility but create dependence on a small number of key customers.

• Earnings quality: Past results were boosted by non-recurring financial gains; investors should normalize earnings for these items.

5. Growth vs Industry

IREN’s recent revenue growth is far above typical industry growth rates:

• Company-level revenue has grown triple-digits year-on-year off a relatively small base as it scales mining capacity and adds AI revenue.

• By comparison, the global cryptocurrency mining market and broader mining sector grow at low double-digit or single-digit CAGRs, while AI infrastructure and cloud segments grow faster but still generally below IREN’s recent pace.

This “hyper-growth” is unlikely to be linear or permanent but reflects a transition from a single-engine Bitcoin miner to a dual-engine renewable compute and AI infrastructure provider.

6. Key Watchpoints

• Execution on AI build-out: Can management deliver large, complex data-center and GPU deployments on time and on budget while maintaining balance-sheet discipline?

• Mix shift and margin quality: How quickly does recurring AI/colocation revenue scale relative to more volatile Bitcoin revenue, and what does that do to consolidated margin stability?

• Regulatory and policy risk: Changes to crypto mining regulation, energy policy, or data-center permitting in key jurisdictions could materially impact operations.

• Dependence on large counterparties: The health and durability of major AI/hyperscaler contracts (e.g., Microsoft) are critical to the long-term thesis.

7. Bottom Line

IREN is evolving from a high-beta, single-product Bitcoin miner into a renewable-powered compute utility with exposure to both Bitcoin and AI infrastructure. The opportunity is significant—especially if contracted AI revenue becomes a large, stable profit driver—but so are the risks, including crypto cyclicality, capital intensity, and customer concentration. For investors, this is best viewed as a high-risk, high-upside infrastructure/compute play where careful attention to balance-sheet strength, contract quality, and earnings normalization is essential.

33 Likes

Flying,

Its nice to have you here on the board. Some quick comments, this board highly values personal analysis. From my understanding of Saul’s posts he put limited emphasis on analysts.

AI is a wonderful tool but a lot of the research it gets when digging the internet is analysts and other people’s opinions. As much as I have to tried to train an AI to view stocks based on Saul’s wisdom the rest of the internet has poisoned the well to much.

I use AI all the time in my life from researching to coding to questions I should be asking a doctor (I do most of the time). But I don’t think sharing the words of AI are really relevant to other people, because they can get it just as quick by a quick question. What I want and think the rest of the board wants, is your opinion on the information your getting from AI or from any source. That’s the value in this board, the thoughts behind hundreds of people.

Drew

20 Likes

You’re right, this did come from AI, but I had a series of 7 questions, I asked it, and then had them summarize it all into one document. This is my own opinion. This is a high risk, high reward stock. They are being sued for misleading performance statements. The founders sold 100 million in stock recently. Some of the employees think they are not being compensated fairly. Nevertheless, I think the stock has great potential because of the recent Microsoft and Dell contracts worth about 12 billion combined. Also, I am good at options, so given the high implied volatility, in a pretty short time, I will have made the value of the stock back in premiums. Also, a lot of people a lot smarter than me, like the stock. Finally, the PEG ratio, my favorite is .1. You never see that. I am going to try an value it on a revenue based model.

7 Likes