India in Temporary Catbird Seat as Result of Ukraine War

For months now India has been getting Russian oil at a discount and selling some to the EU at substantial profits. [According to Michael Tran]

(Why India is the big winner as EU's Russia oil ban redraws energy trade map - MarketWatch), global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets:

India is buying record amounts of severely discounted Russian crude, running its refiners above nameplate capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe. This was historically never the case, and it is why Indian product exports have been clocking in at all-time-high levels over recent months.

Indian-Russian integration is likely to accelerate despite US pressure and Ukraine throwing fits. Fuelled by a surge in import of oil and fertilizers, India’s bilateral trade with Russia has soared to an all-time high of $18.2 billion over the April-August period of this financial year, according to the latest data available with the Department of Commerce. That makes Russia India’s seventh biggest trading partner — up from its 25th position last year. The US, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Indonesia remain ahead of Russia.

The increased trade with Russia is a primary driver bringing New Delhi and Tehran closer together – largely a result of US efforts to sever Europe from Russia. According to Reuters, at the end of November Moscow sent India a list of more than 500 products it wants India exporting to Russia, “including parts for cars, aircraft and trains.” The report added:

Indian imports from Russia have grown nearly five times to $29 billion between Feb. 24 and Nov. 20 compared with $6 billion in the same period a year ago. Exports, meanwhile, have fallen to $1.9 billion from $2.4 billion, the source said. India is hoping to boost its exports to nearly $10 billion over coming months with Russia’s list of requests, according to the government source.

While the US does not like the increased closeness to Russia & Iran; there is little they can do about it as India is in the US’s strategic plan against China. China is definitely on the US “to do” list after Russia has been militarily crushed. Thus making the US the sole world super power. Such an event has not occurred since the Roman Empire under Augustus Caesar.

Relations between India and China have been worsening. The two world powers are facing off against each other along their disputed border in the Himalayan region.
The root cause is an ill-defined, 3,440km (2,100-mile)-long disputed border.

This comes in the wake of US military officials suggesting that India can be used as a “second front” against China in the event of a clash between the two superpowers in the Western Pacific.

India’s moves to build up its naval power come — not coincidentally — as China is rapidly building up its own.
“China’s navy is growing very fast,” Dr Hall told the ABC.


The Indian/Russian oil going to the EU is still possibly a major downward pressure on Opec. India can undercut Opec if only a dollar here and a dollar there over time.

A bit of video was posted on a Navy oriented board on FB a few weeks ago, 18s landing in horrible conditions, the lights of the planes only visible for a few seconds before they land. It took the USN a century to build up it’s experience in carrier ops to the level it is at now. Where are the Chinese on that learning curve?



China can defend its shore really well with 90% of its fleet. Only the other 10% can sail much of the Pacific ready to fight.

India will easily fight off the Chinese in the Indian Ocean.

The US can defend or attack across the globe.