Why is one stock bought (or sold short) and not another, if not due to the fact that it has become a good time to buy it, or a good time to short it?
Yes, the investing world seems to be divided into the two groups, them that are confident they can time their entries and exits, and those who are confident they can’t, but who, nonetheless --using fundamentals, technicals, or a combo-- do time entries/exits, no matter how they spin it otherwise.
For sure, discussion of methodology are uninteresting to them who’ve already settled on a methodology that suits them. But that isn’t everyone.
<b>From the FAQ for this board:
[Saul writes] <i>I sold out of Amazon, Yahoo, and AOL one day in January or February after Yahoo,
as I remember, had gone up $30 to $50 per day for three days in a row. I said to my wife,
“They may keep going up, but this is insane. I’ll let someone else have the rest of the ride.” The bubble broke about 3 weeks later.
Sometimes selling can be the most important thing you can do." </i>
[Saul again writes] <i>“Finally, I was down so much that even I got scared and started to think of selling out and going into cash.
All the talking heads were saying, “Sell! Sell! Sell! Get out! Get 100% in cash!”
I said to my wife, “If everyone is shouting ‘Sell!’ and even I am scared enough to be thinking about selling, there’s no one else left to sell…
This must be the bottom.” And it was (Nov 2008)."</i>
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**If that ain't “market-timing”, then 'up' is 'down' and "War is peace".**
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Before I read the FAQ, I wasn't aware that the intention of the board were 'long-side' only
--and only from a “fundamentalist” perspective --instead of just 'sound investing' from either market side.
So I'll back off from posting further, because I'm a “bear”, as might be suggested below
(tickers omitted, because I don't discuss currently open positions in public forums).
But I will say this. From a “charting" perspective, all of them were late being put on,
and none of them should have been put on if “technicals” were the only consideration.
But I was selling trash, and knew I was selling trash, because I had done my fundamentalist homework.
The positions --which are "investments in Ben Graham's sense of the term-- are working as well as could be hoped for.
Arindam
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Sold on Sold at Now P/L
01/14/16 4.04 4.09 -1.3%
01/14/16 1.16 1.17 -0.5%
01/12/16 7.25 6.83 6.1%
12/21/15 5.09 4.61 10.4%
12/04/15 7.74 6.76 14.5%
12/09/15 6.29 5.30 18.7%
12/08/15 4.00 3.03 32.0%
12/09/15 8.34 6.27 32.9%
12/21/15 2.61 1.89 38.1%
12/08/15 2.09 1.49 40.1%
12/04/15 2.17 1.53 41.7%
01/04/16 4.15 2.65 56.8%
12/08/15 2.57 1.54 66.6%
12/04/15 3.44 1.49 131.0%
12/09/15 9.17 3.75 144.5%
12/17/15 2.16 0.78 176.9%
12/08/15 2.44 0.43 467.2%</b>