There has been a lot of talk on this board about getting in an out at the right time…using 200dma, or divergence or other “obvious” things. So this is a call to action. Those of you that timed it so beautifully before the fall, let us know now - was this the bottom, was it a dead-cat bounce, are you now 50% in, 80% in, 100% in.
Thanks for your assistance! We will keep providing you good fundamental stocks and you can provide us with your exact market timing moves in real-time.
Thanks!!
Posting TA metrics here will start WWIII on this board. I’m trying to respect the board’s desire to shove people like me to the sidelines. I never start a thread and I rarely comment.
That said, there are a few of us here that refuse to blindly follow a charismatic leader. Quit asking us to leave. Let’s just co-exist in peace and Fool on.
I, for one, will keep my comments to a minimum.
That said, there are a few of us here that refuse to blindly follow a charismatic leader.
Who said that you had to blindly follow Saul’s advice? Each investor should make their own decisions, all he asks is that for this specific board you post based on his methods (stock picking). I wouldn’t go to A board on the Red Sox to post about the Patriots, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like the Red Sox. All we ask is what you said, just keep technical posts here to a minimum. We aren’t trying to drive you off we are just trying to drive technical posts off.
" There has been a lot of talk on this board about getting in an out at the right time…using 200dma, or divergence or other “obvious” things. So this is a call to action. Those of you that timed it so beautifully before the fall, let us know now - was this the bottom, was it a dead-cat bounce, are you now 50% in, 80% in, 100% in.
Thanks for your assistance! We will keep providing you good fundamental stocks and you can provide us with your exact market timing moves in real-time.
Thanks!!"
I don’t buy the market. I buy stocks. I just bought some INFN mid $14s.
I like today’s candle on the weekly. We shall know in the fullness of time if this was a good buy. I have more cash if necessary.
Rob
was this the bottom, was it a dead-cat bounce, are you now 50% in, 80% in, 100% in.
clearly you do not understand how data based timing works. It never gives anything but probabilities based on history. It won’t say “this was the bottom” just maybe at best that there is s good chance this was the bottom, and even that is based on the extent of the move.
Are you asking whether this was the bottom a bear market? If so the answer is no, because we don’t yet know whether this will turn into a bear. So far it is just a correction and I am not into the soothsaying bit.
This methodology
is not about predictions. Just about the odds. And the odds are this was not “the bottom” But that is constantly subject to revision, my best systems use weekly (not available until Friday close) and monthly data ( not available until end of January)Actually my only losers are Saul type stocks because I sold all my index based ETF months ago.
.If I wrong about the general market my loses will be small.If I am right my gains will be larger. Odds again
The recent turn around was predictable just as I posted earlier, it is all based on market internals. The market was way oversold. After a week or soon this factor will be gone and we will be back to the fundamentals of overpriced stocks.
Will I post how much market exposure I have? No. It’s my business not yours. And percentage exposure to the market should be based on age,other assets., pension income etc, things unique to each of us. And as I have said several times only a part of my portfolio is involved in timing. I have several stocks purchased with a B&H 3 to 6 year , sometimes longer, outlook.
Even if my timing systems had 6 to 1 chance of being perfect I still would not put everything into it .Just as I wouldn’t play Russian Roulette with the same 6 to 1 odds.
Mauser,
In general, I’m in the “Saul camp” of I’d like this board to concentrate on investing discussions of great companies with great fundamentals selling at great values.
But I appreciate this clear, civil, explanation of yours regarding how you use “timing” to give you probabilities, not predict tops and bottoms.
I hadn’t realized that’s what some “market timers” do.
IBD has a pretty impressive track record of calling market trends and reversals. In mid-April 2009, they have flipped their view to “market in confirmed uptrend”. They have successfully called the bottom within a few days of it happening.
As for me, I am 90% in cash. I have one long position only. That’s CASY.
I assume folks are on this board because they’re interested in either Saul’s methodology or the companies discussed here. I don’t think anyone has a problem with other methodologies (like TA) being applied: all that’s being asked is that you have those discussions on another board where TA is on-topic and appropriate, as it’s not part of Saul’s methodology.
Why don’t you start a “TA discussion of Saul-board companies” board or something like that where people can go wild with TA talk about these companies? People who are interested or intrigued can very easily follow both boards, and people who wish to stick with Saul’s methodologies can pass without having to wade through a number of off-topic posts here.
That just seems like common courtesy to me.
Pete, is that something you could head up? Creating a board for TA discussion of companies featured on this board?
Thanks,
Neil
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/40-global-bear-markets…
the more global markets are synched the more likely the movement is not a random fluctuation I didn’t know Nigeria had a stock market…
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461 very well researched
momentum was the sole timing method used here - a 10 month simple moving average
conclusion - using this single tool momentum investing alone you will not see a lot of improvement in CAGR but will see much lower gut churning volatility. note that I use more sophisticated momentum measures plus other methodology and think can improve CAGR too.
Market timing as I practice it is NOT the same thing as what some call Technical Analysis, involving visual chart patterns, double tops descending trendiness , head and shoulders etc. Or any outset Candlestick thing.
And it does not preclude me from looking for individual stocks. Recently I presented to this board Berkshire Hathaway as being undervalued and prior to that Arcam.
While I agree that Saul method stocks should be the core to this board that does not preclude other related subjects. Because to anybody who bought these stocks near their peak (as I did with one) asking whether the general market was strong or weak might have saved them a lot of money.
If some people don’t like these comments, fine, ignore of individuals or even whole threads is only a click away. I posted here because the title of this thread is pretty obvious.
nevercontent,
People often ask on this board, “should I buy or sell XYZ?” where XYZ is one of the board favorites.
Am I allowed to answer buy or sell based on market trends? Or am I limited to consideration of PEG and company fundamentals only?
What if I discuss PEG and fundamentals, can I add TA as a value-add?
What if I discuss PEG and fundamentals, can I add TA as a value-add?
People often say that XXX is currently down, but their opinion of the company is unchanged, so they are buying. This seems like timing, but applied to the individual stock purchase decision, not a global issue.
Hi dovbgood,
Of course if you are discussing fundamentals you can throw in a brief remark about a TA indicator. What we are all having trouble with is running long threads about arcane TA indicators on a board which has a different topic.
Think of it this way: Would you go to the Netflix board, or the Google board, and start a thread about ETF’s. Of course not. It’s interesting but it’s not the topic of the board.
We’d be glad to have you here talking about stocks you are interested in. And saying this is a good time to buy stock ABC because it’s growing like mad and it’s PE is down to 15 with no good reason, is great. But it’s a good time to buy because “it looks like it may be forming an inverted head and shoulders” is way off topic, and not what THIS particular board is for.
I hope that helps clarify it a bit. Stick around and contribute.
Best
Saul
OT
Russian Roulette
http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2009/07/28/the-russian-rou…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette
russian roulette is more complex than it sounds.
In a revolver you can see the empty chambers by looking at the revolver from the front. But you would also have know the maker brand because some cylinders rotate clock wise ,some rotate counter clockwise .
And if the cylinder rotates freely the loaded chamber should wind up near the bottom more often than 1 in 6 tries.
Have to watch Deer Hunter again sometimes
The whole timing/not timeing thing has gotten a bit annoying here. Yes, lots of ways to look at it - e.g. trend following, price levels, technical indicators, macro backdrop, easy to manage risk levels, etc, etc.
Basically at the end of the day it’s just different ways to pick your spots to buy and sell. Maybe you buy and never sell, maybe you flip in and out a lot, maybe you buy a core position and adjust around the edges with some smaller buys and sells as prices dictate. Whatever works for you.
I know what works for me is not the same as everyone else, but it’s probably 80/20, so lets not start arguments over definitions or methods where they differ. I get it that no one wants to see others lose money so when other people see things differently it’s easy to get fired up wanting to help them and come off as if you are attacking their position. No one method is better than the other, but lets add value where possible and try to stay more on topic.
For me, the fundamental stuff is how I get my shorter list of investment candidates, but I use trends, macro picture, price movement, risk limits, and some technical indicators if they apply when deciding on a fair price. That doesn’t mean I’m right or that anyone else needs to, but I will try to add little bits of that if it helps because that’s how I see it. Many methods can peacefully coexist… but as the main topic is on fundamentals, will try to keep the other stuff short and only if it adds value.
Ok, rant over. Everyone enjoy the weekend and hopefully we continue the bounce next week.
IBD has a pretty impressive track record of calling market trends and reversals. In mid-April 2009, they have flipped their view to “market in confirmed uptrend”. They have successfully called the bottom within a few days of it happening.
As for me, I am 90% in cash. I have one long position only. That’s CASY
Dovbgood, thanks for being willing to answer a bit. I do like IBD for helping my “market” decisions. My 401K primarily only allows limited mutual funds, so the IBD market trend has been helpful. As I mentioned it helped get me to 80% cash in my 401k, but I decided to keep many of my individual holdings, including stocks matching this board’s philosophy.
In the past, a lot of people have been happy telling us how their methods helped them get out while suckers on this board held on. Since Saul is very transparent and does a monthly review and some in between revelations on crazy days, I was hoping critics would be just as open with their decisions and opinions. Sure there is not requirement to be open, but for those that criticize Saul, they should sure be as willing to be transparent.
This thread clearly got too long, I was not asking for WWIII or philosophical discusses, we have had plenty of those. Just some transparent statements. Thanks for yours, let us know when you come significantly off 90% cash.
I will let everyone know that when IBD declares an FTD, I will move a lot of my 401k back into funds. I moved 5% today as a nibble because we held the dreaded August lows and have had some encouraging moves since. I would say we are in the “IBD Window” and a 2% market move on strong volume any day next week should trigger the IBD FTD.
I have been more active adding to my Saul stocks over the last week or so.
Bottom line: we are all right and wrong at different times. Let’s stop the debate and if you are willing to make a call, then do it. If not, stop implying others are dumb or are suckers for holding growth stocks on the way down.
Thanks.
Just saw this. Interesting stats - https://theirrelevantinvestor.wordpress.com/2016/01/22/it-wa…
The final quote is good - “The most important thing, whether you’re attempting to time volatility or attempting to sit through it, is to understand the risks inherent in whatever you’re doing.”
I will let everyone know that when IBD declares an FTD
Please do! I went ~17% cash a couple of months ago which has grown to a bigger % now. I sold because because things just felt itchy. And now feeling better but am not convinced its the final leg down.
I would say we are in the “IBD Window” and a 2% market move on strong volume any day next week
I presume that would be a 2% up market move as opposed to down?
Thanks Puddin
Alex
Never forget JP Morgan’s Law of Markets, when asked what the market would do he replied: “It will fluctuate.” I believe that anyone who ignores this bit of wisdom underperforms his potential. Warren Buffett, a model value investor, also agrees when he says: “Wait for the fat pitch” TMF also agrees when they recommend buying in thirds.
Of course, finding the good stocks is fundamental but timing the trades is the icing on the cake.
Denny Schlesinger