Thank you for this idea, MagellansQuest, and for posting your findings. I was curious about this, so I ran the numbers.
Going off of (fellow Gaucho) Chris’ suggestion, I went back to September when the SaaS’s peaked, and used 9/12/18, as that’s when many of them hit their highs that month.
Specifically, I was curious as to how these SaaS companies compared against not only the 3 major indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ), but also against the FAANG stocks, and several other solid growth stocks, such as Mastercard, Microsoft, Adobe, and Starbucks.
Here’s what I came up with. The “Dip” refers to the performance from 9/12 to 12/24. The “Bounce” refers to the performance from 12/24 to 4/15. The “Net” refers to the performance from 9/12 to 4/15.
9/12/18 12/24/18 4/15/19 DIP BOUNCE NET
FB: 163.25 123.1 178.5 -24.59 45 9.34
AMZN 1994 1343.96 1844.87 -32.59 37.27 -7.47
AAPL: 224.94 148.15 198.58 -34.13 34.03 -11.71
NFLX: 359.08 242 350.71 -32.6 44.92 -2.33
GOOG: 1172.72 973.9 1218 -16.95 25.06 3.86
MA: 213.05 173.15 239.52 -18.72 38.33 12.42
MSFT: 111.43 97.68 120.94 -12.33 23.81 8.53
ADBE: 267.83 206.9 271.86 -22.74 31.39 1.5
SBUX: 55.2 61.48 76.67 11.37 24.7 38.89
DJIA: 25989 22317 26407 -14.12 18.32 1.6
S&P500: 2888.29 2400.56 2908.32 -16.88 21.15 0.69
NASDAQ: 7958.87 6278.49 7987.16 -21.11 27.21 0.35
AYX: 62 48.75 83.1 -21.37 70.46 34.03
MDB: 84 70.48 142.88 -16.09 102.72 70.09
OKTA: 73.87 52.29 95.07 -29.21 81.81 28.69
TTD: 149 103.68 199.28 -30.41 92.2 33.74
TWLO: 85.9 74 125.3 -13.85 69.32 45.86
ZS: 41.37 34.41 66.59 -16.82 93.51 60.96
Misc. Comments:
–As MagellansQuest noticed, the “Saul SaaS stocks” performed much better throughout.
–Since this all occurred during the several year window when these SaaS stocks were on a massive meteoric rise (which many people on here have said that those days are likely over), I can’t help but wonder how much of the lack of drop is simply just due to this counteracting things.
–Because of this, I’m especially curious to run these same numbers during our next market dip, and I’ll make sure to post them on this board.
–One of the motivations for this original post (I think) has to do with all of the discussion on here about a possible SaaS bubble. I really don’t want to restart this, but I’d like to add one quick comment that I don’t think I’ve heard (sorry if I missed it). Such bubbles often happen after a wave of Fear-of-Missing-Out (FOMO) hits the general public. We’ve all heard the saying about when your taxi driver tells you about an investment, then it’s time to get out. Everyone knew about internet stocks in the late 1990s. Everyone knew about bitcoin by the end of 2017. But I’d venture to say that most of the general public doesn’t even know what SaaS even stands for, and there’s a good chance it’ll stay that way. In the coming years, this is something to be aware of. If it gets all over the news, and prices shoot even higher, beware.