Investment idea. A small company with huge potential. FBR

[gentleman]

Hello everyone,
My first post here (please be gentle with me…)
I was looking for a platform to share about an investment idea, I hope I’m in the right place.
I want to hear more opinions, and try to convince what I think.

Tell me if there is interest in the thread, then I will write reviews and analyses,

I have a lot of super interesting material on it. If there is demand I will write the material here.

The future of the construction industry,
3D construction printers,
An investment idea with a good chance of huge returns,

[GDavenport]

I love the enthusiasm around this company from you.

What is their total addressible market?
Are they profitable? if not, when does management think they might be?
Do they have an interest in selling machines as a one time product, or is there a sustaining cashflow from services (consumables, design IP, service parts, etc.)?
Do you trust management? Do they have positive employee comments? Prior established track record of success?

How does this make life easier for their customer? cheaper? better?

Does the ultimate consumer benefit? How?

Thanks for the post!

[gentleman]

Hey GDavenport ,

Thank you for the feedback.

The FBR company develops robots named Hadrian X, designed to build walls by placing bricks. These robots employ a unique technology called DST for accurate placement. They can build walls at an extremely high speed, currently achieving about 300 bricks per hour. By using larger bricks, they can construct the walls of a house in just one 9-hour shift.

Their potential market is enormous, encompassing much of the global construction industry. The brick market alone is valued at over a trillion dollars annually.

Currently, FBR is not profitable but has developed its next-generation robot, intended to be the commercial model. The immediate business plan involves constructing a house in Australia with this new robot, followed by the construction of 10 houses in Florida. FBR recently signed a significant agreement with CRH, one of the largest block producers worldwide. This agreement outlines that, upon meeting certain milestones, FBR will enter into a contract and partnership with CRH.

FBR’s product offers customers more accurate and significantly faster construction — reducing work from two months to just one day, without waste, air pollution, and with enhanced safety.

This product is a disruptor in the construction industry, promising to shorten construction durations substantially.

The value to the customer is considerable, and FBR stands to gain financially, planning to charge market rates for a faster, superior product, which will yield high profit margins, estimated at about $10-20K per house.

The cost to build each robot is about $1-2 million, with simple operation requirements: a tablet and three operators (one to load blocks for the robot, one to manage the tablet and conduct minor repairs, and a third to relieve the other two as needed). With clients filling 70% of the operational capacity, the return on investment is projected to be less than a year.

FBR’s business model doesn’t involve selling the robots; instead, it aims to establish WAAS (Wall as a Service) branches, where a partner covers all costs and then shares the profits.

The latest contract with CRH aims to establish CRH as a partner in WAAS, though FBR must meet certain immediate, seemingly attainable goals (previously achieved milestones) for this partnership. Even then, CRH has a short window to withdraw, making the agreement akin to a memorandum of understanding. If they decide to proceed, the contract will cover up to 300 machines in the partnership.

Regarding profitability, FBR is expected to start construction in Florida in the coming months, with CRH likely to formalize their partnership under agreed conditions. CRH has been involved with the product for an extended period, generating significant enthusiasm. Should the partnership with CRH not progress, other parties are expected to show interest due to the product’s value and profitability potential.

To become profitable, FBR needs about 15 active machines, fully booked with orders.

The potential market in the United States alone could utilize 3,000 machines, illustrating the scale of market opportunity.

FBR has steadily progressed with their product over a long period, culminating in the recent launch of their commercial model.

[GDavenport]

The company has tested it’s technology.
The company has built no homes.
The company has no track record.
The company is hugely cashflow negative (expected for such an early stage growth company)
The stock is so thinly traded, that the spread is ~1/2 the market cap.
There is no volume to discover price. (~$1000 US or 50,000 shares avg volume.)

Are you a shareholder?

[gentleman]

Hey @GDavenport
very happy for the discussion,

yes i am a shareholder,

I’m not entirely sure I understood your meaning correctly in everything you wrote,

The company did test its technology, as you wrote.

You probably mean the stock that is traded in the USA in Pink Sheet: FBRKF. The equivalent in Australia is a little more tradable (still very little), an average of about 5m units per day. Its symbol is: FBR and is traded on the ASX.
the American FBRKF is really impossible to trade.

The company did build houses, but with their old machine, you can see a breakdown here: Projects.

I would appreciate it if you could raise additional questions or arguments for and against.

Thank you

[GDavenport]

Thanks for the responses.

I have reviewed all of their promotional videos. I am impressed by what is NOT there.

Where is the mortar? A cursory review does not reveal how this essential portion of the construction process using blocks is covered in real construction.

Addressing this would aid the solution as a viable replacement for the current “all-in” process in use today.

Also, rebar, mesh and concrete fill are necessary reinforcement specifications for block built structures.

Do the machines handle this aspect of wall-as-a-service? If not, understanding how they partner with local labor or other processes is essential. Without this additional material and reinforcement, these machines are only capable of providing part of the labor intensive construction process.

I didn’t see anything in the tutorials, walk thru or sales demonstration materials that addresses this.

All of their development material is confined to a couple adjacent lots or the “HQ” proving grounds in perfect conditions(none is permanent or completed).

I love the idea. The company doesn’t appear to be investable at this time.

Too early
No sales record
No feedback from the customer (sales/quarter, gross margin, forecast, etc.)
No indication of technical start to finish service offering.

I suspect the last one is preventing movement in the second two.

[gentleman]

Thank you for the answer. You seem like an intelligent person who knows how to conduct research independently. In their videos, it’s hard to see, but they utilize a special adhesive instead of traditional mortar. This glue enhances precision in laying and offers a faster drying time. According to them, it is 2.5 times stronger than traditional mortar.

This adhesive has received certification from the Australian Standards Institute and the ICC. In applications where it is used, they incorporate metal rods and pour concrete into the blocks to reinforce the structure.

On one hand, they need to demonstrate the efficacy of their product on a larger commercial scale. I agree. However, on the other hand, they have garnered interest from significant entities and a lot of enthusiasm for their product. For example, see Here.

According to the information they’ve shared—if accurate—it appears they have developed a ready-to-market, revolutionary, and disruptive product with significant profitability. They are currently launching a new machine—the next generation—based on which they’ve initiated commercial marketing. Even before any commercial demonstrations, they’ve already signed an important memorandum of understanding.

So, I’ll put it this way: I’m not currently aware of any obstacles or challenges regarding the product itself. There remains some uncertainty until significant commercial success is demonstrated, but the proof of concept seems to have been established. Should future hurdles arise, they seem well-positioned to make the necessary adjustments.

Meanwhile, the current share price doesn’t nearly reflect their potential. Once they demonstrate their dominance in the global industry, the stock price is expected to soar far beyond its current value. Even at the onset of commercialization, it’s likely to increase significantly—not by 100%, but potentially by 1000% or more.

Yes, there’s risk and some uncertainty, but the potential for extraordinary profit is immense. The stock price currently does not at all reflect the company’s potential, making this an opportunity.