Beyond Meat (BYND) IPO’d today. So far the stock is up 135%
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/BYND/#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheS…
Makes ZM look like a bargain!
I’ll take 5 shares with a SAM IPA and some fries, please.
Mmmm, hamburger (not)…
Swift…
No position…
Only up nearly 180% by now for today, what can possibly go wrong?
Paul said: Only up nearly 180% by now for today, what can possibly go wrong?
Indeed!
Current market cap: $3.9 Billion
Annual Revenues: $85ish Million.
Those numbers give me indigestion.
Pass the Tums, please…
Mmrurp, Swift…
TTM is $115M. Rev Growth accelerated to 200% in Q ending 3/31 (see latest S1). Rev growth has been above 120% last 2y. Too bad I cancelled my IPO request and kept my SQ shares:(
TTM is $115M. Rev Growth accelerated to 200% in Q ending 3/31 (see latest S1). Rev growth has been above 120% last 2y.
GMs increase dramatically to 20%. Before that they weren’t even covering the cost to produce let alone OPEX. Will they reduce costs, raise prices? How will they ever be profitable?
From S-1:
We have experienced strong revenue growth over the past few years, increasing our net revenues from $8.8 million in 2015 to $32.6 million in 2017, representing a 92% compound annual growth rate. We have generated losses since inception. Net loss in 2016 was $25.1 million compared to $30.4 million in 2017, an increase of $5.3 million, as we invested in innovation and the growth of our business. In the nine months ended September 29, 2018, our net revenues were $56.4 million, a 167% increase from $21.1 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2017. For the nine months ended September 29, 2018, our net loss was $22.4 million. Going forward, we intend to continue to invest in innovation, supply chain capabilities, manufacturing and marketing initiatives as we believe the demand for our products will continue to accelerate across both retail and foodservice channels as well as internationally.
https://sec.report/Document/1655210/000162828018014471/beyon…
Today’s market cap: $3.9 Billion…
New name: “Beyond Insanity.” AKA, “how Mr. Market lost his mind.”
Swift…
Long ketchup, mustard and pickles…
No position BYND
GMs in this industry is low. Take mature company like HRML. It has GM of 20% but OP of 12% and net margin of 10%, about half of our SAAS companies at maturity. That is reason for the P/S to be half of our companies. The 200% rev growth last quarter and expectation for 2019 is pushing this valuation. 2019 Q1 is projected at 200% growth (TTM of $115M). See article below. Also chk amended S1 link.
Beyond Meat Should Be Cheap Enough - If You Believe In The Product https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256625?source=ansh $BYND
texmex:
Just curious, can’t actually tell from your posts, are you making an investment case for BYND?
From the article you linked, entitiled, Beyond Meat Ought to be Cheap Enough:
And as for BYND stock, there’s an interesting growth case here, at least at the midpoint of the planned pricing range of $19-21…here are risks, to be sure. The stock isn’t cheap, at roughly 10x EV/revenue (on a trailing twelve-month basis). We’ve seen more than a few ‘better for you’ stocks tumble in categories like gluten-free and organic food. Beyond Meat will have plenty of competition. Post-IPO trading is likely to be volatile, to say the least, given the limited financial history and the “garbage in, garbage out” problem of modeling future results…That said, there’s an intriguing case here at a reasonable price.
The stock closed at $65.75 today.
Best, Swift…
If you have read my posts in the board over the last few months you would have found that I have been bullish on this company. I even put in an order for the IPO but chickened out in the end when they raised it from 20 to 25$ and I had to sell my SQ shares which was reporting that evening. I think the market reaction was crazy just like ZM though.
I think the market reaction was crazy just like ZM though.
Ok, just checking. Clearly someone is bullish on on BYND at this price, given the run up today. If you were one of those investors I wanted to hear the bull case…
Sorry you missed out on pre-IPO! I was kicking myself recently for missing out on Zoom Technologies (ZOOM):
Starting around the time Zoom Video Communications filed for its initial public offering in late March, Zoom Technologies’ price began flying upward. It peaked at more than $5, and it’s about $2.70 today, a rise of about 54,000 percent that can only be explained by a massive case of mistaken identity…
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/zoom-ipo-zoom-technologies-…
Ah well, you win some and you lose some!
Foolin’ on! Swift…
Are there any BYND bears here? Anyone? Bueller?
Yes. Wouldn’t touch the stock.
They had their own case at Whole Foods up front and center near the registers. I bet they paid a pretty penny for that placement. This only happen in the last month as their road show and push for recognition leading up to the IPO. It will be interesting if they pull those cases now that the IPO is over.
Their real problem going forward is that Impossible Foods has a superior product. Most restaurants are signing up with Impossible Foods, proven by the fact Impossible Foods cannot keep up with demand.
That’s the company you want to be invested in. I tried to invest in them a couple of years ago, but they weren’t looking for chump change.
Beyond Burger is riding a wave, but like any wave eventually they crash.
If you are thinking of investing at the very least try a Beyond Burger, and then try an Impossible Burger at a local restaurant. They can only be found in restaurants at the moment, but going retail I think this summer. Beyond Burger is a Ford Pinto to Impossible Burgers Lamborghini.
Thank TryingMB. That was actually supposed to read are there and BULLS here? But, unfortunately, TMF boards still have no edit function! Thanks for this image:
Beyond Burger is a Ford Pinto to Impossible Burgers Lamborghini.
Swift…
Who thinks this thread should probably be shuttered now…
Hi Swift,
I’m a BYND Bull and would’ve bought in the 30s if given the chance.
Similar to Zoom, anything below 8 billion and I was in, stretching to 10-12 I would’ve considered. Again on opening day, at almost double, that scared me away.
BYND is trebling their revenue yoy. If that’s not a growth stock, I don’t know what is. I posted my thoughts over on the NPI but a lot of the conversation devolved into the purpose of meat-free alternatives. For investing purposes I think that’s wasted breath. This is a trend that is happening right infront of us. There are only two big players worth talking about in the market at the moment, BYND and Impossible, and there’s space for two winners.
I have no doubt that both companies will do amazingly. Others may disagree, but this is the way I think.
So BYND, in my mind, will continue to grow fantastically (maybe slower growth but still more than doubling for a few years). But ultimately this comes down to valuation. Currently sitting at a market cap of 4 billion, it’s P/S is 45, forward P/S of 16.
It’s a food company, so margins are going to be absolutely nowhere near our SaaS companies like AYX. Realistic future operating margins aren’t going to be over 10%. They are also supply constrained and fully reliant on one pea supplier for the time being, which may limit future rapid growth.
I see great things for this company, but a lot of yellow warning signs that could cause hiccups. At current super high valuations, I’m staying away. In 2-3 years time, I may end up regretting that decision, but oh well, such is life.
I see great things for this company, but a lot of yellow warning signs that could cause hiccups. At current super high valuations, I’m staying away. In 2-3 years time, I may end up regretting that decision, but oh well, such is life.
My views are similar. While I like the whole notion of Beyond Meat, I wonder about the ultimate growth prospects. We have here a product exalted because it tastes just like beef. Cool. But it costs lots more than beef. After all the hoopla dissipates, we’ll have the majority of beef-eaters asking themselves why they should pay lots more for a beef substitute than simply buying cheaper actual beef.
majority of beef-eaters asking themselves why they should pay lots more for a beef substitute than simply buying cheaper actual beef.
Not buying the stock either but to answer your question, the same reason why people pay extra to recycle their trash. The same reason people pay extra for cage-free eggs, or for organic produce, or zero calorie, or any other of the dozen or so things for which we make conscience choices to pay more for a substitute.
There has never been a worthy substitute for beef - even at a premium price. The company that can get that right will likely make a lot of money.* I’ve tried the impossible burger and it is pretty close. Burger King and White Castle sell them in my area. I think Wendy’s is up next.
The problem as I see it is that while it may be better for the environment, it is not necessarily better for your body. In a few ways, it is worse - more calories and potentially more saturated fat - especially when compared to lean beef.
https://www.health.com/food/veggie-burger-beyond-burger-impo…
*Companies will need to find a way to make it both better for the planet and better for your body before I really see such a disruptor. I’d probably pay a premium for that.
I get a pack of two less processed (than Beyond Meat), very tasty Indian-spiced vegetable burgers at Dollar tree. Some more conventional vegetable burgers taste and chew pretty close to hamburgers already, and they cost about $3-$4 for four, and I can get several kinds at Aldi for maybe under $3.
I don’t think this stock will have quite the staying power of, say, Alteryx.