However, top AI expert Gary Marcus has issued a call to action which I trust he wants to be circulated as widely as possible. Marcus has been warning that AI companies, who have no hope of ever achieving an adequate return on their massive investments, will soon do the obvious, which is to see a massive taxpayer rescue based on their presumed-obvious too-big-to-fail status.
Keep in mind that Marcus has been early and accurate in depicting the failure of large language models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT to live up to their promises, and has also debunked the idea that they could ever achieve true artificial general intelligence. More recently, he provided a series of sightings of how uptake and use of generative AI were slackening and even falling. This is consistent with various reports of AI not delivering in corporate settings, where its big applications were set to occur. For instance, a MIT study ascertained that 95% of corporate pilots of generative AI had failed. Similarly, Rand has determined that as many as 80% of AI implementations fail, twice the level of other software projects, and TechRepublic put the kaput rate at 85%.
Gary Marcus
A few days ago, Sam Altman got seriously pssed off when Brad Gerstner had the temerity to ask how OpenAI was going to pay the $1.4 trillion in obligations he was taking on, given a mere $13 billion in revenue.*
In a long, but mostly empty answer Altman pointed to revenue that hasn’t been reported and that maybe doesn’t exist, attacked the questioner, and promised that future revenue would be awsome
What Altman couldn’t say then was that he has a plan, to reduce the cost of his borrowing … by having the American taxpayer (indirectly) foot the bill.
The cat came out of the bag today, at a Wall Street Journal conference, from the mouth of OpenAI’s CFO, who seemed to be test-piloting the notion
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ChatGPT creator OpenAI had issued a clarification on Thursday that the company is not seeking US government loan guarantees to fund its massive infrastructure build-out.
This follows OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s comments at the Wall Street Journal’s business conference, where she said government backing could help attract the huge capital needed for AI computing infrastructure, especially given the uncertainty around how long AI data centers remain viable.
According to Friar, federal loan guarantees would “really drop the cost of the financing,” making it easier for OpenAI and its investors to borrow larger sums at lower interest rates.
If approved, the guarantees from such a proposal would lower OpenAI’s borrowing costs by shifting the risk of loss to the government should the company default.
So is the above a clarification or obfuscation of a burst trial balloon?
Did CFO Ms Friar let the cat out of the bag too soon?
