Is a demo nuke baked in to stock prices?

The news and their talking heads have been mentioning the possibility of Putin using tactical nukes for a couple months. IMO, most of the opinions discount the possibility.

So, far, the market really seems more focused on Fed rate hikes and inflation (seemingly ignoring LOW unemployment and covid).

The market does not seem too concerned with all the atrocities being perpetrated on Ukraine and its citizens.

DrBob asked what will be the West response if Russia demo’s a small nuke.

I’m wondering what will the stock market do?

The market has digested (and mostly baked in) the commodity interruptions from Ukraine and Russia.
The China Covid-19 lockdown is a fait accompli, with some movement to “re-open”. The market has mostly baked this into its prices.

What will be the stock market response should a nuke get loosed?

:alien:
ralph

No, it’s not baked into stock prices. I fully expect stocks to fall hard if a nuke is set off. Even if a “demo” nuke.

If a demo nuke is set off and the world does not respond, very forcibly, that is bad news.

If a demo nuke is set off and the works does respond forcibly, that is bad news.

The only good news is a demo nuke is not set off. And I think the market is not pricing in a demo nuke.

If a nuke gets set off, of any size, my portfolio will not be at the top of my thoughts.

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So, far, the market really seems more focused on Fed rate hikes and inflation (seemingly ignoring LOW unemployment and covid).

Maybe the Fed is more destructive than Putin…

I think Russia is going to be a has-been power. Socialism didn’t work. The collapse of the Soviet Union became a missed opportunity. Now most of the world no longer fears Russia. Joke of the day, “During WWII Russia was the world’s second best army. Now Russia is Ukraine’s second best army.”

All the above does not mean that Ukraine will not suffer more carnage before this conflict ends. Without the Moskva it is highly unlikely that Russia can capture Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

The Captain

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