Raised some cash

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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I am a bit puzzled by the market’s reaction, or non-reaction to the Ukraine situation. I Sold not quite half of my UPST. Not UPST related, but that was easiest place to grab cash. I decided to not sell the CRWD, ZS, etc., as cyber security is the new Lockheed Martin. OKE is up, as I assume most energy producers and transporters are.

I think the NATO leaders do not recognize how strategically important Ukraine is from the Russian perspective. They probably never sat on alert at an airbase in Germany…

KC

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Yeah. I call bs and assume headfake thus far.
Let’s see how it closes.

My opinions:

  1. Ukraine is short-term either way. May lead to quick retest of lows, and when war “ends” it may lead to relief rally. But it is all a distraction from the real game of Fed/Inflation.

  2. Fed/Inflation will take over narrative and/or get in the canoe and row alongside Ukraine. Either way, it is still sitting right there, smoking a cigarette and chilling with Brad Pitt-esque cool, while we whipsaw about in the market.

  3. I still like at least one more retest (or puncture) of the 1/24 lows. Feels like March to me. Earnings will be over, and no ER/CC good news to offset the gloom/doom of Fed raising rates news and possibly lingering Ukraine sideshow.

I thought about selling on the early strength here, confident we will still go lower, but my position cost basis are not all that bad, given they were procured on Friday after a couple down days. 85% cash. So I think I may be mentally (finally) at a place where I add but don’t subtract these little baby core positions. If after DOCN and MNDY announce and if they pop up, I may sell, because it seems all the recent ER pops have eventually faded back down a bit after the initial exhuberance. But I am using these ERs to cement confidence for the coming year. Feel good about GLBE, UPST, and of course feel good about DDOG/NET/TTD as businesses, while still not liking their stock prices.

I think your point on security is well-taken, but not sure if those security companies are looked at like NOC/Lockheed quite yet. So I think S (and CRWD and ZS) are bloated in valuation currently, but unsure how much they will drop vs being allowed to grow into them. ZS seems a bit silly, and I was a fan of them pre-IPO on TMF. We will see.

Should be an interesting week!

Dreamer

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I went to bed too early, by about half-an-hour. Could have sold more UPST at a better price. But, I sold 46% of my UPST, 30% of DDOG and 32% of MNDY. All were directionally correct. Won’t cry over being undecisive.

ZS and CRWD were relatively strong, DDOG flat but I sold it when it was up.

I think we end up with at least a bisected Ukraine with some ethnic cleansing. Sanctions lead to more obvious occupation which leads to more sanctions. If a split Ukraine is accepted as de facto, then the case for the remaining Ukraine to be in NATO is an easier sell and that would increase the odds that Putin’s 19th century brain “defends” Russia from 1812 and 1914 and 1939. We don’t know the worldwide impact on economy of sanctions and higher energy prices–particularly in Europe. Yes, inflation. I watched Boris Johnson in parliament via Al Jazeera. The Hawk, and the opposition was pushing for more, more, more.

POMO, Dreamer. Cash is king for the short term. I may grab some more.

KC

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I still think we have another leg down, perhaps in March.

I wouldnt rule out a “the market baked in ukraine” bounce tomorrow.

Also, today was pretty close to a retest of 1/24 and 1/28 lows. Maybe not for our stocks like ddog, but others like mndy and docn and the overall indexes. Glbe gave back their er bounce.

I finished only slightly lower but keep buying all the way into close and improved my cost basis on every stock.

If we have another 10-15-20% type rally in growth, in next few days, i probably pocket the gains and wait again for another retest of the lows.

If this is Dec 2018 or covid type corrections, we are ok.

If this is 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 type stuff, this whole year could suck.

Ukraine is just a distraction, imo, from the multiple contractions overdue from the 2020 and 2021 excesses. Free money over, kiddos.

I maintain the saul board gains of 2020 were a fluke of the market. The same market saw ttd mgni tsla gme amc bitcoin/crypto tdoc lvgo pins pton and the almighty ZM all go parabolic. It wasnt just saul stocks. It was monkeys throwing darts.

Bruce Brown still defends his gorilla game board deapite the csco jnpr rbak and other 2000 era busts. He touts msft gains but ignores how msft was flat for 15 years or so after 2000 peak.

But this time is always different.

Looking forward now is all that matters.
Annual cagr is all that matters.

Hoping to have a great monday on a wednesday. I say it is a 50/50 shot.

Dreamer

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I agree with you, mostly.

What I did after hours: Sold about 30% of my DOCN and NET, bought a couple of NLG exporters, CQP and LNG. Rationale: DOCN and NET have servers in Europe and worldwide. Cyber disruption. CQP and LNG, well, the obvious with NORDstream 2 not opening and a large pipeline through Ukraine… I bought just a little as a marker. Geopolitics and macro-stuff has proven to be a good way to underperform the market historically (for me and others who post on these boards). But my moves are at the edges. I think that we are in recently uncharted waters now, with the end of zero interest rates, reduction in the massive fed balance sheet, inflation, and the end of 35 years of Pax-Europa plus tanks rolling across European plains. Tanks? The 1960’s “strategy” in Europe was tactical nukes to blow down the forests in the Fulda Gap to stop/delay Russian tanks headed for Germany. I guess I am a fossil.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-03-01-mn-6926-s…

KC

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And Valero Energy and COP, just a little as another marker. Energy prices have to go up, no?

And, hey!, dividends. :slight_smile:

KC

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