Is tracking Saul in xls a burden to Saul?

This board is very useful for many people, including Saul. Saul is kind enough to provide this forum and he is generous enough to provide his thoughts on stocks and on investing philosophy. This spreadsheet that Anurag has started may cause Saul more work that he wants to commit. It may second guess his own actions. I do not know and Saul can speak for himself. But I do know that I would not want someone constantly asking me to update exact trades that I do in my portfolio; I simply would not want that burden. If Saul wants to provide that info fine but we should first ask him rather than assuming that he will go along. Saul, you have the option to say no. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has thought this and I thought that I’d throw this out there…

Chris

22 Likes

It does not matter whether or not Saul or anyone likes it, I’m gonna track him based upon public info he shares and would question his claims if they appear unsubstantiated.

Anurag

10 Likes

Anurag,

While many of us might like to have a deeper peek into Saul’s holdings and trades I doubt you will be able to track his move closely enough to have much accuracy. It’s great that Saul shares as much as he does but to ask to know every move would be way too much to expect from anyone (unless they were taking our money to do so). I probably prefer the way Saul has done it so far and trust in his accounting.

Below are the prices I came up with that I think should be used for the start of the year. Already you don’t know the exact size of his holdings, you have used averages. You won’t know the prices he pays and gets for buys and sells nor the size of those. We may get a fair approximation but I don’t see that a spreadsheet will be very accurate unless it has exact values. I guess maybe we can see if this experiment works…unless Saul just stops sharing at all.

Steve


BOFI	77.81
SWKS	72.71
CELG	111.86
SKX	55.25
CRTO	40.42
FB	78.02
WAB	86.89
XPO	40.88
POL	37.91
SYNA	68.84
AIOCF	16.43
EPAM	47.75
INBK	16.74
PSIX	51.61
AMAVF	18.31

2 Likes

The purpose of tracking is to not prove Saul wrong or right. It is to help those who wish to emulate his results. The board is public. People get influenced. Anything shared publicly is up for tracking by anyone. If Saul truly wishes to provide stock advice then sharing the information in a timely manner will be useful. I will do all work involved. His portfolio is small set of tickers. He is not a day trader. He usually holds for at least 6 months. So a dozen buys or sells are not hard for him to report or for me to track. He also does not have to divulge any personal information or do any past digging. I have set the tracker to start from today.

Anurag

6 Likes

Anurag,

The purpose of tracking is to not prove Saul wrong or right.

Most of us like it the way it’s. If you want to track Saul’s record, you can do it, but don’t ask him to keep it up to date. I am surprised at this request and more so, Saul’s willingness to help.

What is real intention if not to prove wrong or right?

If someone is generous to give, let us not place demand on that generosity.

Again, please feel free to track, but do it for our own analysis using your own energy.

My 2 cents.

LegoAbs

13 Likes

…This spreadsheet that Anurag has started may cause Saul more work that he wants to commit. It may second guess his own actions. I do not know and Saul can speak for himself. But I do know that I would not want someone constantly asking me to update exact trades that I do in my portfolio; I simply would not want that burden. If Saul wants to provide that info fine but we should first ask him rather than assuming that he will go along. Saul, you have the option to say no. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has thought this and I thought that I’d throw this out there…Chris

hi Chris and everyone else. I actually have said many times that I won’t post my trades as I do them, as it would alter the way I invest if I had to justify every trade (even to myself). I’ll continue to give my positions roughly once a month, and significant changes now and then.

Saul

4 Likes

It does not matter whether or not Saul or anyone likes it, I’m gonna track him based upon public info he shares and would question his claims if they appear unsubstantiated. - Anurag

Gee Anurag, I’m glad I’m claiming 3.9% and you figure 7%, instead of the other way around!

:wink:

Saul

2 Likes

If Saul truly wishes to provide stock advice then sharing the information in a timely manner will be useful.

Anurag! How did you come to think I wanted to provide “stock advice”? I’ll provide my opinion in a discussion (as I did about SSYS this morning), but I’d be out of my mind to try to supply stock advice to a bunch of people with different incomes, amounts to invest, risk tolerance, etc. I’ve made it clear over and over that I won’t provide information about my trades as they happen. I like to share “investing philosophy,” which is an entirely different animal.

Saul

30 Likes

I’m glad I’m claiming 3.9% and you figure 7%

I think AEYE was in there in January sometimes and now it seems that Saul sold his position.

Anurag’s tracking will not be precise as to Saul’s actual returns but will provide an approximate (maybe +/-5%) performance of imaginary portfolio based Saul’s up to date picks. Weighting of individual stocks and buy and sell prices will be an approximation.

I’d be willing to wager that this portfolio will outperform any MF portfolio over the next 5 years.

Chris

3 Likes

This should be interesting. Some sort of monthy tracking on a spreadsheet will allow us to look back in time and gleen some additional insight.

Anirban.

I’d be willing to wager that this portfolio will outperform any MF portfolio over the next 5 years.

I think it will too but I think he’s trying to make the point that it won’t. He is the guy with hundreds of stocks all MF recommendations from the pay services? or maybe I’m thinking of someone else, I get the sense that this isn’t done out of kindness of heart but to say “see my portfolio has higher yield, my strategy is better”…who knows, I could be wrong…just my take.

Sweetadeline

7 Likes

Saul

An update once in a month also works. I am sure we can all learn from it. Who knows your calculations are totally out of whack? You may be scoring 60% per year instead of 30%. This past month accounting already proved how erroneous your claims have been. You claimed 3% and I got you at 7%. See?? :slight_smile:

Mirth aside, I have reset the spreadsheet to track from today. It is only fair since your percentage blocks are current and not what they were in late Dec. Let us have once in about a month update on your buys and sells. This should not be much of a burden or something that will influence your mind adversely. I promise to not comment on your trades or your results going forward - not now and not in future - but just record them faithfully.

Anurag

2 Likes

Below are the prices I came up with that I think should be used for the start of the year.

Steve, Those are the correct year-end prices. thanks for coming up with them.

Saul

I have reset the spreadsheet to track from today.

Hi again Anurag, I strongly suggest you track from the beginning of the year as that’s the whole point of this exercise. Use the correct year end prices that Steve posted in post #5663, and you’ll at least have a good approximation.

Thanks

Saul

1 Like

Saul,

No problem. I will put Steve’s numbers. Have a good start. :slight_smile:

Anurag

Hi Saul

I have updated as per 12/31/14 - Steve’s prices. I am still getting 6% instead of 3% but I have decided to let is stay. In the grand scheme of things it won’t matter. We are talking about smashing the SPY. Precise timing won’t matter a whole lot.

Again it will be helpful to folks here if you can post updates to your trades as soon as you have made them and feel comfortable disclosing them.

Anurag

1 Like

No problem. I will put Steve’s numbers. Have a good start. :slight_smile: Anurag

I get +5.6% after today. Using the correct numbers and the correct symbol for POL, I hope we’re not so far apart.

Saul

I get +5.6% after today. Using the correct numbers and the correct symbol for POL, I hope we’re not so far apart.

My sheet says 6%. We are off to a flying start and at a great reference point.

Saul - we have known each other for 9 years now since the GG days. We were in that Chinese small cap boat together - remember? I truly admire the leadership you have brought on this board as is evidence by this heavily trafficked boards. So I think this is exceedingly (F)oolish of you to participate in this tracking exercise. Regardless of the results at the end of 1 year or 5 years, this is infinitely valuable for everyone. People study stocks together and track them.

I wish I could do so with my ensemble of 250+ stocks and options. I trade almost everyday - 400+ trades a year. I need a better quality software than Quicken to share it easily. I don’t have the patience of John Sergeant to do the work on a spreadsheet and track it. So I am glad you have a manageable portfolio that we can all track and learn from. End results are truly immaterial.

Anurag

Anurag, I’m often trimming around the edges, taking a little off one position and adding a little to another (like adding a little to SYNA when they came out with that mammoth result and outlook), but as I said, I currently am content with all my positions so I haven’t even done a little tweak in several days.

Saul,

I will not fret about on small changes here or there since those do not impact the bottom line much and do not take away the educational experience.

I want to keep it simple and useful.

Anurag

1 Like