It has already come and gone many times over. I’m thinking this day will come again!
It’s possible to score goals whether you’re shooting at your opponent’s goal, or your own. The MOU would then be an own goal! Happy World Cup!
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but but but, where’s da’ Groundhog and da’ news man?
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Just the facts, Ma’am:
The facts lead inexorably to only one conclusion. This was a surrender by the U.S.
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So, you are accepting that the US can’t be trusted?
Do you think that is a good thing?
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Neither can anyone else. So what?
I think TFG is smart not to go to war. The BRICs would need to supply Iran. China in particular. With the fees on bulk, China might change her tune. It might break up the BRIC. Then China and the US will be on the same side. We do not need to be on opposing sides like the EU/Russia over Ukraine. Russia is paying a horrible price that the US sponsors.
I urge you to carefully read the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which was signed by the presidents of both countries. Documents on this level are very carefully drafted with high level negotiators on each side painstakingly selecting each word.
First, there is a 60 day timeframe to hammer many of the details especially related to their nuclear program. BUT many provisions are effective immediately. Scroll down to paragraph 11 (emphasis added):
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U.
They get all their frozen funds back immediately and it goes onto say there are no restrictions where the money goes. It could be used to fund terrorist groups, for example. The document goes onto say that 60 day window doesn’t start until we’ve fulfilled the terms of Paragraph 11 (and some other sections).
In other words, we give them the money up front. Then they start negotiating.
Paragraph 10 is pretty interesting too:
The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
The Obama-era deal only lifted sanctions related to their nuclear program. This document removes sanctions related to terrorism and their missile programs too. And again, we do it up front, before the negotiations start.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but we’ve already given up the two biggest tools in our tool box, before we even start talking about the nuclear program.
The original goal may have been to give them nothing, but minute POTUS signed that document, we gave them a lot, and we got virtually nothing in return.
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Nothing except lowering the rage level toward us of most of our long time allies and friends….
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Not to put too fine a point on it, but we’ve already given up the two biggest tools in our tool box, before we even start talking about the nuclear program.
The original goal may have been to give them nothing, but minute POTUS signed that document, we gave them a lot, and we got virtually nothing in return.
post by flyerboys 3 mins ago
Nothing except lowering the rage level toward us of most of our long time allies and friends….
Those were Obama’s tools. The conventional tools. We need China on our side. The regime can now charge China for bulk. That is our tool of choice.
The other tool, if Iran makes war we kill the top brass. That is a reason for them to pull back. The fees are a reason for them to pull back.
Ideally, the regime would be progressive, pull back, and become part of the general global trade. Parts of that might happen with the MOU. Some of it will not happen because a leopard does not change its spots.
We should never get into a war where China is supplying the other side. But China can change sides.
Relatively speaking frozen assets from 1979 are peanuts for a nation of 90 million. Iran needs money, and will charge everyone for passage.
Ah, I knew you would return to the Iran discussions.
Anyway, I think the above reflects a misunderstanding of the “frozen assets.” Nearly all of the “long ago” frozen assets were moved back to Iran during the time that the JCPOA was effective. Some weren’t, but mostly because Iran had previously done a bit of an end-run around earlier imperfect sanctions by using the frozen assets as collateral for new loans.
The assets that are currently frozen are those that were in the international system during the JCPOA period, when Iran had access again to global financial networks, and were then newly frozen when Trump ripped up the JCPOA and imposed his “maximum pressure” campaign. It’s about $80-100 billion in assets.
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But this gets interesting. The Chinese government and banks are putting $400 billion into Iran. The smaller companies getting bulk from Iran are not usually part of that. This puts Iran and China at odds. China often does not get paid back. Smaller shipping companies paying the fees make other Chinese industrialists less competitive globally. Not a happy ending.
While no fixed decade-long payment is finalized, China committed to up to $\$400$ billion in long-term infrastructure and energy investments under a 2025 China-Iran Strategic Partnership. Regarding bulk oil shipping, China is the destination for roughly $80\%$ to $90\%$ of Iran’s oil exports, but future transaction amounts will depend on the newly negotiated interim peace framework and the lifting of U.S. sanctions. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
Historically, China accounted for the vast majority of Iran’s unreported oil trade, purchasing roughly 1.38 million barrels per day. During the recent blockade and crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese shadow fleet vessels relied on paying de facto transit tolls and security fees in Chinese yuan to bypass the conflict zone. [4, 7, 8, 9, 10]
However, the exact amount China will pay Iran over the next decade on bulk shipping is currently speculative due to two major variables:
- Sanction Waivers: Under a recently drafted interim agreement to end the war, the U.S. agreed to waive many sanctions, allowing Iran to sell its crude on the open world market rather than relying exclusively on discounted Chinese sales.
- Transit Tolls: While Iran had been imposing and collecting transit fees in yuan (up to $\$2$ million per tanker) to secure passage through the Gulf, the U.S.-led memorandum of understanding is changing how the strait operates, bringing the future of these tolls into question. [6, 8, 12, 13]
Because of the recent peace frameworks, experts anticipate total revenues will be dictated by standard market forces and broader geopolitical agreements, replacing the wartime shadow “toll booth” system. [8, 11]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7gepOOcBr0
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-heavy-reliance-iranian-oil-imports-2026-03-21/
[3] IEA sees gradual Hormuz recovery tipping into significant 2027 surplus - The Economic Times
[5] China Bet Its Middle East Strategy on Iran. That Bet Has Failed. | Hudson Institute
[6] Iran suggests deal with US may be signed by American and Iranian presidents
[7] Potential Revenue Of $20 To $100 Billion For Iran From The Strait Of Hormuz - WANA
[10] https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/iran-oil-stranded-chinese-ports/
[11] What do Iran and the US stand to gain from their deal? Here's what to know
[12] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzEX2wrIElo
[13] [2026-06-17] Ranking Member Shaheen Statement on Reported Iran...
I had a new concept you have faced hundreds of times. The contract/deal/mou that neither side wants no matter how much you focus on it…at the end of the day means only that the Strait is open. The rest is the nature of things as they are regardless of contractual obligations. Contracts of all sorts are broken every day.
I will talk about the strategic and tactical issues. Arguing contract law is a waste of my time.
It also means that we had to give Iran the full unfreezing of assets and removing all of our sanctions on their oil and gas industries. And that we had to eliminate the blockade. And that we had to cease all of our military attacks. Just to get the Strait open. Because we couldn’t tolerate having the Strait closed, we had to basically stop the war and give Iran a host of economic incentives before negotiations on nuclear weapons even started in order to induce them to open the Strait.
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But there is a purpose in all of that. It won’t at the end of the day work well for China.
On paper for now.
Calling you back to reality.
Israel never signed. OFW Does Iran want the agreement regardless? Money. A future for their families even if the entire world does not turn Muslim?
And the Strait is open on paper for now as well. But the deal is there. The strait stays open if the assets are unfrozen and the sanctions are lifted so Iran can sell their oil. And their oil is already moving along, unblocked by either the blockade or sanctions.
Of course. The agreement is amazing for them, regardless of whether Israel goes along with it. They got a fantastic array of benefits from the U.S. They get their assets unfrozen and massive sanctions relief. The U.S. stops bombing them and undoes the blockade. They don’t have to do anything on nukes except go to negotiations. And the whole world knows who prevailed in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran (hint - it’s not the U.S., and that’s why Israel is so apoplectic about this). Even if they get nothing at all from the Israelis, Iran has to be delighted.
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Makes you wonder if the deal was made to be so sweet for Iran because the US knows Israel is uncontrollable. Iran is going to have to choose whether they want to blow up the deal if (and when) Israel decides to escalate their crusade in Lebanon.
On second thought, that would take a certain level of strategery that we haven’t seen outta this administration.
Not at all. The deal is so sweet for Iran because the U.S. had no bargaining leverage, and had to take a bad deal. The closure of the Strait was weeks away from precipitating a global energy crisis, as everyone was about to start running short of actual physical oil in inventory. So Iran was able to ask for assets to be unfrozen and all sanctions on the oil and gas sector to be removed up front, and the U.S. had to swallow it.
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Israel didn’t sign, they weren’t even a party to the negotiations. That is a huge problem for us.
Today in a press conference, the POTUS stated that Iran could have a nuclear program. The only question is what will their nuclear program look like, that is still to be negotiated. But if Israel were to attack Lebanon, the agreement has been violated. This gives Iran leverage more favorable terms for their nuclear program. They can even use their Hezbollah proxies to provoke an attack if they like. He also stated Iran can keep a ballistic missile program.
The 1919 Treaty of Versailles was a humiliation for Germany. It is amusing that Macron arranged for the public signing of this treaty to be at Versailles also. I wouldn’t have expected the POTUS to pick up on something like that, but his protocol people certainly should have.
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Seems like a waste of Iranian and Chinese money, but ok.
We are on track to have an oil glut.
Excuse me but Iran is borrowing money from China and China’s costs for plastic are going to rise relative to our costs.
Who do you think is paying?
We get very little from the Strait. The Chinese do. Iran can not shut the strait on them again.