Record US oil exports

Will this help our balance of payments?

The Port of Corpus Christi has never been busier as tankers from around the world flock to the U.S. Gulf Coast to load up on crude oil during the Iran war…March was the busiest month in the history of the Port of Corpus Christi, and the first quarter was its busiest quarter ever, said CEO Kent Britton…

U.S. oil exports have jumped to 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, a more than 30% increase over the 3.9 million bpd exported in February before the war, according to data from Kpler…

Some 50 to 60 big tankers called very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are heading to U.S. ports on any given day right now, double the volume seen last year, Kpler’s data shows. VLCCs can typically carry up to 2 million barrels. Many of those tankers are coming from Asian countries that imported their oil from the Middle East before the war, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.

DB2

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Probably, but any improvement will be more than offset by the estimated $1 billion a day we are spending to create this temporary market.

Your link suggests an extra 1.3mm barrels a day. If we assume a value of $100 per barrel, we are still running about $900MM short.

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There are larger, more important reasons than to create this temporary market.

Question: is the $1 billion a day estimate net of normal operating expenses? Any links for data?

DB2

In March, Pentagon officials told Congress that the war cost $11.3 billion in just the first six days.

More than $890 million a day

The war is costing about $891.4 million per day, according to a think tank based in Washington, DC, that analyzed the information the Pentagon has shared about targets it struck and the assets involved in the operation.

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The balance of payments always balances. I think you mean current account deficit. According to information released today, the trade deficit in March increased 4.4%

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-grew-in-march.html

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Which would be what, exactly? We were under no threat before. We had a working treaty before (that was torn up, and not replaced, by the current moron in charge).

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So what you’re saying is that…

Upping exports by 1.3 million barrels per day generates $130 million, if oil is $100 per barrel. With the war costing $890 million per day, we’re only digging ourselves a hole of $760 million per day!

I’m no mathematician, but it seems like we only have a couple options to stop the bleeding:

  1. Expand export capacity by another 7.6 million barrels per day (impossible).
  2. Do something crazy to increase prices to $585 per barrel (becoming more likely by the day).
  3. Agree to open the strait (NACHO).

Seems overly vague…what reasons are worth $760 million per day?

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Preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

DB2

Which, as stated before, we were successfully doing before the treaty was torn up by 45 and never replaced.

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Ya, if only we had something like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was accomplishing exactly that.

Edit:

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2018/05/the-strategic-fallout-of-us-withdrawal-from-the-iran.html#:~:text=Commentary,inspections%20required%20to%20verify%20compliance

This week, President Trump got the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

He did this despite a lack of evidence that Iran is violating the agreement. To the contrary, the International Atomic Energy Agency has verified Iran’s compliance numerous times.

This war was preventable. Twice.

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It is the “successfully” part that wasn’t…

DB2

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according to…

Pete

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According to anyone who actually knew what they were doing, it was successful. Stop listening to bogus news “sources”.

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That’s hardly a done deal. If anything, we may have accelerated them getting one. Maybe we set them back to where they were right before the JPCOA was axed…but we probably didn’t.

I’m glad we’re exporting more oil, I just wish it wasn’t at the expense of everything else. This is how one can bankrupt a casino.

Apart from the monetary costs of this war, how can we measure the macroeconomic impacts of…

  • Signaling our strategic weaknesses to the world?
  • Completely destroying the trust from our allies?
  • Completely destroying our ability to negotiate with adversaries?

But booyah, we’re exporting more oil!

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If the JCPOA wasn’t successful, then it’s hard to imagine what could possibly come out of the end of this war that would be. Iran had: i) agreed to keep their uranium enrichment vastly below weapons-grade (~3% enrichment); ii) agreed to allow inspection and monitoring of those efforts by IAEA representatives; and iii) the parties retained full ability to go back to the status quo ante of enforcement.

There’s nothing more that can be obtained on obtaining a nuclear weapon in the future. Because that’s a future event. All you can do is get Iran to promise they won’t build a nuke and get the ability to monitor and enforce. If you think that’s not good enough because you don’t trust their promises, or because Iran still “has the will” or the desire to get a nuke, or because you think they always have the ability to pursue a nuke in secret without getting caught…then what are you going to get at the end of this war that’s any different?

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Ya, but we don’t. Even if we did it would have expired by now, and we don’t know if it would have been successful. The agreement also did nothing to address ballistic missile capability and the support of terrorism.

DB2

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We have no way of knowing whether any agreement that comes out of this war will be successful, either - you can’t know the future. The JCPOA was working just fine before it was abrogated in just the third year.

So? Not every agreement solves every problem. The agreement was intended to prevent Iran from getting a nuke, and they honored the agreement until we ripped it up.

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California may need to import some of that oil.

DB2

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We could literally take that $890 per day, split it 50/50 between US and Iran.

US pays Iran for their nuclear material and to not develop wmds and the other larger, important reasons.

US pays itself the other 50% for healthcare relief.

Bonus outcome: People and property and economies and goodwill are not broken due to war.

Entire planet would be better off than current state.

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Yes, and we should be looking constantly and long-term to create a surplus.