It could be a nasty hurricane season

What explains the lull? That you can not connect the dots with Complex Systems.

2001

12th European Colloquium on Quantitative and Theoretical Geography.St-Valery-en-Caux, France, September 7-11, 2001. St-Valery-en-Caux, France, September 7-11, 2001

Modelling complexity : The limits to prediction

Modélisation de la complexité et limites à la prévision

Michael Batty and Paul M. Torrens

The Limits to Prediction

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Synopsis The problem is the models, they are simpler than the system they model.

The Captain

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Butterflies actually fly slightly off to the right on a curve. The flapping wings send storms to the left.

As they say in the Rumsfeldian universe, there are both known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

DB2

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Atlantic Niña is the cold phase of a natural climate pattern we call the Atlantic zonal mode. (Zonal means “along lines of latitude.”)…Typically, sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Atlantic have a somewhat surprising seasonal cycle. The warmest waters of the year occur in spring, while the coolest waters of the year—below 25 degrees Celsius, or 77 degrees Fahrenheit—occur from July to August…

These steady southeasterly winds are strong enough to drag surface waters away from the equator, which brings relatively cold water from deeper ocean layers to the surface. This process, known as equatorial upwelling, forms a tongue of relatively cold water along the equatorial Atlantic during the summer months…

2024 began with extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Atlantic during February to March…Equally remarkable was the rapid transition from warm to cold SST anomalies. Never before in the observed record has the eastern equatorial Atlantic swung so quickly from one to another extreme event…

Plus, Atlantic Niños have been shown to increase the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing near the Cape Verde islands. NOAA’s seasonal forecast of above-normal 2024 hurricane activity is based in part* on expected La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific and warm ocean temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. It will be interesting to monitor whether this Atlantic Niña fully develops, and if so, whether it has a dampening effect on hurricane activity as the season progresses.

DB2

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