Yet zero storms formed. Surprised experts point to unusual persistent dry air and a few other factors. But each time they and computer simulations think something is brewing, nothing comes of it.
“It has been surprisingly and freakishly quiet in the Atlantic,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said, pointing out that weak Tropical Storm Colin fizzled out on July 2 and there’s been nothing since.
DB2,
Where no man has gone before. Climate change is the proper term. When things change, the models cannot forecast. This season is so far out of the parameters of what would be expected from a La Nina and very high water temps that any decent scientist would be seriously re-thinking his weather models.
I was talking to an avid fisherman here in Panama City Florida. In 150 foot deep water, the surface temp is still 86 degrees. The fish have
moved deeper and there is no top water activity. The bay waters are so hot that bait fish kept in cages must be kept under the docks and out of the sun so that they do not die of the heat. (We are talking 8 to 10 pound fish)
The small bait fish indigenous to the bay are all hidden in the grasses. They can be seen in the evening sun, but must of them have moved under structures for shade or in the deepest water where the grass cover is available. (Small pinfish, 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch long)
This year is a significant anomaly. We (those that have lived on the upper gulf coast a long time) are watching every thunderstorm and the wind shear carefully. There is enough energy that a Hurricane Humberto in 2007 is a worry.
Cheers
Qazulight
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/projects_humberto07
Introduction
Humberto was the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma struck South Florida in October 2005 and the first hurricane to make landfall along the Texas coast since Rita struck the Texas-Louisiana area in September 2005. The intensification rate in Humberto was one of the highest that has ever been observed for an initially weak tropical cyclone. It is estimated that the cyclone strengthened from a 30 mph low into an 90 mph hurricane within 24 hours. This rapid increase in intensity is rare, and only three others storms (Celia/1970, Arlene and Flora/1963) have intensified more in 24 hours from below tropical storm strength. Humberto had a peak wind of 90 mph and a minimun central pressure of 985 mb when it made landfall around 2:00 AM CDT just east of High Island, TX.
Synopsis
For several days before the formation of Humberto, there were disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extended from western Cuba into the eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with an upper level low and a weak surface trough. Unfavorable wind shear initially prevented development of this system as it tracked slowly to the west-northwest. The shear began to relax on Tuesday the 11th, and early in the morning on Wednesday the 12th convection began to increase over a developing surface low pressure area. As the developing system began a northwest drift, quick organization was noted on radar imagery and buoy data. The disturbance was estimated to have become a depression at 4:00 AM CDT with the center located 120 miles south of Galveston. A ship report and radar data suggest that the depression quickly became a Tropical Storm Humberto around 7:00 AM, and it moved slowly to the north. MODIS satellite image of Humberto centered off the upper Texas coast (at 1655Z on 9/12/07) shortly before becoming a tropical storm.
Intense thunderstorm activity in well-defined spiral bands continued near the tropical storm, and the small tropical cyclone continued to rapidly strengthen just offshore of the upper Texas coast. Later in the day, Humberto turned to the north-northeast due to steering around a large middle-level high over the southeastern United States. Radar data indicate that Humberto became a hurricane about 20 miles south of High Island, Texas around 10:00 PM, and the cyclone reached an estimated peak intensity of 90 mph as it made landfall just east of High Island in McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge around 2:00 AM on Thursday the 13th. The hurricane moved over extreme southeastern Texas across the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, and entered southwestern Louisiana, weakening into a tropical storm about 75 miles west-northwest of Lafayette. The storm became a depression near Alexandria late on the 13th, and dissipated the next day over central Mississippi.
