It could be a nasty hurricane season

The climate is setting its self up for a historic hurricane season. While we do not know what will happen, we have seen setups like this before. The analog years are 2005 and 2020. That sentence should make you nervous if you: Buy gasoline, live on the Gulf Coast or the Eastern seaboard, or have property that must be insured on the Gulf Coast or the Eastern Seaboard. If you own property in Florida, anywhere of any type you should be stocking up on Xanax, you are likely to need it.

The prognosticators are making predictions like 25 11 6. Twenty five named storms, eleven hurricanes and six major hurricanes. Then making qualifiers like, these are conservative, and the high pressure in the northern Atlantic will likely drive most of those into North America.

Dr. Levi Cowan does not make predictions like that, he simply looks at the conditions and the models of those conditions. In the last day or so he pointed out that the conditions are right for a tropical storm to develop the end of May or early June. This would mark a very early start to the hurricane season and would be a harbinger of things to come.

However, one must remember what Yogi Berra said about making predictions. Also, most predictions made before May have an accuracy no better than random guesses. Still, the climate looks ominous.

Cheers
Qazulight

6 Likes

Last year Warren Buffett maxed out his exposure to the Florida reinsurance market for hurricane risk. Berkshire reported a $2.6 billion underwriting profit at its insurers, up from $911 million a year ago. The light hurricane season, with the worst storm hitting a sparsely populated area helped limit losses.

I wonder how Buffett is betting on this season?

intercst

2 Likes

Dang there goes the Grouper fishing.

Andy

1 Like

Depends. In his maps he pointed out a storm could develop. He did not say where it would develop or where it would go. There is a lot of coast line between New York and Belize.

Right but I like fishing in Destin, Florida and the Season is in June. I guess if I plan it a week ahead of schedule I might be able to do it but the problem is getting a boat that late.

Andy

1 Like

Is there some kind of ‚Äútraveler‚Äôs insurance‚ÄĚ for situations like that?

DB2

1 Like

Grouper makes great ceviche! But keep it simple:

Our classic Peruvian ceviche pairs a high-quality white saltwater fish of your choice with citrus juice (lemon or lime), salt, hot peppers, onions, and cilantro. For this recipe, you need chile rocoto , or chile manzano as it is known in Hispanic supermarkets.

The Captain

5 Likes

You know Bob that is a good idea I never thought of that.

Andy

2 Likes

Andy