The climate is setting its self up for a historic hurricane season. While we do not know what will happen, we have seen setups like this before. The analog years are 2005 and 2020. That sentence should make you nervous if you: Buy gasoline, live on the Gulf Coast or the Eastern seaboard, or have property that must be insured on the Gulf Coast or the Eastern Seaboard. If you own property in Florida, anywhere of any type you should be stocking up on Xanax, you are likely to need it.
The prognosticators are making predictions like 25 11 6. Twenty five named storms, eleven hurricanes and six major hurricanes. Then making qualifiers like, these are conservative, and the high pressure in the northern Atlantic will likely drive most of those into North America.
Dr. Levi Cowan does not make predictions like that, he simply looks at the conditions and the models of those conditions. In the last day or so he pointed out that the conditions are right for a tropical storm to develop the end of May or early June. This would mark a very early start to the hurricane season and would be a harbinger of things to come.
However, one must remember what Yogi Berra said about making predictions. Also, most predictions made before May have an accuracy no better than random guesses. Still, the climate looks ominous.
Last year Warren Buffett maxed out his exposure to the Florida reinsurance market for hurricane risk. Berkshire reported a $2.6 billion underwriting profit at its insurers, up from $911 million a year ago. The light hurricane season, with the worst storm hitting a sparsely populated area helped limit losses.
Depends. In his maps he pointed out a storm could develop. He did not say where it would develop or where it would go. There is a lot of coast line between New York and Belize.
Right but I like fishing in Destin, Florida and the Season is in June. I guess if I plan it a week ahead of schedule I might be able to do it but the problem is getting a boat that late.
Our classic Peruvian ceviche pairs a high-quality white saltwater fish of your choice with citrus juice (lemon or lime), salt, hot peppers, onions, and cilantro. For this recipe, you need chile rocoto , or chile manzano as it is known in Hispanic supermarkets.
I went to Carlsbad, Ca and fished out of Oceanside instead. Caught a 35 pound halibut. I am going to Seward, Alaska for Halibut and King Salmon in about a month. I just didn’t feel like messing with Florida this year although we love the panhandle area.
Destin has been fine, best I can tell. We have had strong easterly winds in June from an elongated high pressure system that settled in and brought wind here and rain in Houston.
I don’t know about the grouper, but my friends in the condo (We have a marina and a bunch of retires guys that fish when the weather is best) have done ok since red snapper season opened.
Personally, my wife and I generally try to take a head boat out very early in snapper season but it has been so windy and hot the entire month of June, and we have had health issues so we skipped this year. (I still work so I have to catch a window where the weather is good and I have time off. Not easy. The retired guys live to fish.)
Exactly. Late start but wham, what a start. Right now it looks like it might not be a major hurricane if it hits the US. But predictions are hard to make especially about the future.
Dust from the Sahara can inhibit hurricane formation. Now it seems that moisture can as well.
Past research has suggested that warmer ocean water and a moister atmosphere could cause hurricanes to become more intense with greater amounts of rainfall. But how atmospheric moisture, which is predicted to increase in a warming climate, may be impacting hurricane formation itself has not been studied in detail until now.
The researchers found that a moister environment produced weaker and slower-moving African easterly waves, or disturbances which are the primary precursor or “seed” for hurricanes in the Atlantic. The addition of moisture moved the location of thunderstorms within the wave, making it harder for the wave to grow. Increased moisture also slowed the movement of the wave resulting in weaker and delayed hurricane seed formation by the time it reached eastern Atlantic waters.
Never, in the 20-plus years it had been issuing outlooks, had the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted so many tropical storms to develop in the Atlantic hurricane basin, with conditions across thousands of miles of ocean aligned perfectly…Yet, after the dissipation of Ernesto, the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, went dead quiet…This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2, said Klotzbach.
What explains the lull? “That’s still an open question,” said Matt Rosencrans, the Climate Prediction Center scientist who is NOAA’s chief long-range forecaster. While the meteorological head-scratching proceeds and the atmosphere shows off its complexity, hurricane specialists do believe a prime suspect is the unusual behavior of the atmosphere over West Africa.