Jason’s February Portfolio Sumarry

Since the time I began to try to follow Saul’s advice and listen to the contributions from everyone here:

Year % Change
2018 +38.9%
2019 +32.9%
2020 +203%
2021 +46.8%
2022 (-)58.55%
2023 +66.27%
2024 Month to Date Year to Date
January (-)4.31% (-)4.31%
February 16.32% 11.3%
2/29/24 1/31/24 12/29/23 11/30 10/31/23 9/30/23 8/31/23 7/31/23 6/30/23 5/31/23
Tesla 34.35% 31.93% 33.61% 34.84% 33.35% 31.46% 31.63% 35.02% 33.69% 33.11%
Nvidia 24.04% 21.75% 16.75% 13.58% 14.26% 6.84%
Snowflake 13.73% 14.11% 18.84% 19.07% 20.3% 19.21% 14.95% 20.01% 15.99% 16.03%
Cloudflare 13.77% 12.85% 12.95% 12.88% 12.59% 12.58% 17.93% 19.26% 19.80% 33.8%
Pure Storage 12.80% 11.31% 9.65% 8.7% 10.64% 10.08% 8.97%
Samsara’s 1.32% 8.06% 8.82% 10.93% 8.87% 9.69% 8.38%
Crowdstrike 0% 5.26% 9.98% 14.11% 13.34%
Zscaler 0% 4.89%
Monday 0% 8.15% 7.89% 14.26% 16.16%
Datadog 0%
MongoDB
Cash 0% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.42%

The following is not investment advice, it’s just my own way of thinking about my own portfolio.

This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep, on average, less than 1% in cash.

February

I’m keeping my number of positions small because I don’t have any confidence in the when or even how the current phase change disruptions in AI, Energy, and Robotics will play out. A smaller number of companies allows me to keep a closer eye on where each company is, in the technological adoption curve. I’m trying to ignore the hype.

We often praise innovative companies; but, I often feel that when a company moves into the ‘adjacent possible’ it’s often because they’ve stalled in expanding their prior niche. I’ve come to appreciate how Deep Tech is different than simply being innovative.

My understanding of the term Deep tech is when successful road-mapping is combined with putting together very difficult technological advances that then must be stacked perfectly, with the purpose of achieving a phase change disruption. I’ve come to understand that deep tech companies that are investable, even given my high risk profile, are rare. I see both Tesla and Nvidia as examples of successful Deep Tech ventures. They clearly have had to have had extraordinary leadership. If building a compelling Electric Car was not Deep Tech why could it 2000 Apple employees, Billions of dollars and ten years not enough. If accelerated computing was easy why is Intel belong leased out as a chip foundry by Nvidia.

I see Cloudflare, in their remaking of the internet, as less disruptive and less in this category of deep tech; yet, they are perhaps similarly successful in executing the stacking of very difficult problems, not just being innovative.

2/12/24

After Monday.com reported for last quarter, I sold 56% of my Samsara position and bought 16% more Tesla.

My reasons are likely controversial. I didn’t believe that the buyers of BI tools would be reluctant to spend, as long as AI was currently being incorporated into these solutions. But my thinking goes like this…when AI can make sense of near any type of raw data why would anyone need other less targeted and more complicated middleware tools. Yes, Samsara seeks a turn-key solution set and they manufacture the sensors; but, I now believe there’s going to be a shift, sooner than I once thought, to Enterprise buyer rolling their own, with ‘Co-pilots’.

Microsoft team cited their own research that elucidates the role AI will play in transforming work. They claim to have facilitated outcomes with as much as 70% improvement in productivity, using generative AI for specific work tasks (eg:KPMG averaging 50% increased productivity within their own organization).

PeterOffringa, SSI -bolding is me.

And this is just for knowledge work. The next and I think bigger application of AI services will be in the physical world. The combination of AI-driven software services, plus devices (robots, cars, IoT, cameras, equipment, etc.).

Me Here:

More intelligence, that’s a very good thing, IMO.

Nvidia may be the largest beneficiary during the next 1-3 years and perhaps longer. This AI hype could turn into a very real 10+ year super-cycle, remaking nearly all of the inefficient systems in this :earth_americas:.

I also continue to believe that humanoid robots are going to be the ‘killer App’ for AI and Tesla is going to win most of this market albeit in 1-3 years from now.

2/28/24

I sold 60% of my~3% position in Samsara to add 18% to my…what was a 14% position in Snowflake before the 20% AH haircut.

I believe the low guide given by Snowflake management was to bolster the new CEO when he reports with a good beat next quarter. The Snowflake CFO actually said that in the CC, after he was unable to explain the low guide given the re-acceleration in bookings during a usually limited Q4.

2/29/24-one data point.

❖ Tesla’s utility battery business may (one day) be worth more than car business, says RBC

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan keeps an Outperform rating and $297 price target on Tesla. The firm’s takeaway from its battery storage facility tour is that the unit may be worth “substantially more” than the company’s standalone car business, even though it continues to view autonomous driving for FSD and Robotaxi remain central to the investment case for the stock, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

The point I’m making with this Analyst note is that Tesla’s non-Auto businesses are enormous and should not be ignored.

Thanks to you forever Saul!

Best to ya’ll,

Jason

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