My contributing less recently has to do with the many here who contributed here years ago having returned. I hope you all are here to stay and keep contributing. I am and will always be grateful to you. You know who you’all are .
This month I’m presenting a shorter accounting of things. I figure this is appropriate given that the bulk of change in my portfolio this month was due to my extremely short time in one very large position, Upstart.
September 30, 2021
Performance to date
2021 > +??.?% 2020 > +203.0% 2019 >. +32.9% 2018 >. +38.9%
2021>. MTD. YTD January >. +3.6% +3.6% February>. (-)0.87% +2.7% March>. (-)13% (-)11% April>. +13.56% +1.37% May>. +5.35% +6.8% June>. +15.2% +23% July>. +5% +29% August> +24.3%. +60.5% Sept> +2.9% +65.22%
August 31, 2021. **September 30, 2021** Upstart. 22.47%. Upstart 27.52% Crowdstrike 19.12%. Datadog. 16.39% Datadog 16.43%. Cloudflare 9.33% Cloudflare 14.45%. Lightspeed 8.78% Snowflake. 10.32%. Monday 8.72% ZoomInfo. 7.75%. Crowdstrike 8.14% Docusign 5.06%. Snowflake 7.51% Lightspeed 4.40%. ZoomInfo 7.09% Zscaler 6.51%
When reading the following keep in mind that although my portfolio has now grown to be more than 99% of what we will live on in retirement, this portfolio is what is in our non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep less than 1% in cash.
What I did and why during the month of September.
Note: I made 8 trades in my portfolio this month. Looking back 8 changes this month is both the mean and the average for me within the ten months where I counted.
I counted 1 to 15 trades each of the last 10 months.
In and out of Riskified with a scant ‘get to know you’ %age- private company competitor is growing at more than twice the rate. So Riskified is not crushing that market, IMO.
Out of Docusign after earnings
I appreciated the move to higher margins - makes me think CLM is moving along. I’m just not waiting around for it with this kind of deceleration in Revenue and Billings growth.
I sold a bit of Cloudflare and Lightspeed to start a small position in Monday.
I’m telling myself, Cloudflare has ‘only’ 50% revenue growth and Lightspeed has ‘only’ 50% margins and I really want the Workflow automation of Monday.com in my portfolio. I felt like I was one of the loudest voices here for owning Slack, I recently owned some Asana (sold too soon) and I also used to have a bit of Blue Prism. I believe Monday is the perfect version of these three combined. Monday provides the interoperability of Apps being used in an organization, similar to what Slack provided, and the customizability of the automation of those apps, similar to what Blue Prism is about. All this while Monday also provides turn key solutions in many verticals, one of the largest being Projct Management, often compared here to Asana.
Zscaler now has legit SASE (Secure Access Service Edge network), per Muji. so I sold a bunch of CRWD to purchase a 4% allocation in Zscaler, again. For the above Eash I elieve I’m in his time as on as number holdup the narrative.
GlobalE has a 6.5%take rate (before WSMs post I’ll be honest I thought it was closer to an 18% take rate) on the fastest growing segment of the largest TAM in the world, that is the cross border aspect of eCommerce. I suspect it’ll take 2-3 quarters before the Shopify integration is where the largest of enterprises will see it as slick enough to utilize. Nonetheless, with the top and bottom lines growing like they are, I had to add some to my portfolio.
To buy the Smallish position in Global-e and taking advantage of the block sale FUD Bear pointed out, I sold some Cloudflare and Snowflake. Cloudflare cause of their ‘only’ 52% Rev Growth and my having bought Zscaler again, with Cloudflare and now Zscaler being competitors. I sold 25% of my Snowflake position due to the decreased growth in RPO QoQ. Saul, Bear, Stocknovice and WSM all selling out completely was one of the reasons for me to question the value of this metric when thinking about Snowflake.
When Monday dropped this last week, on no news, I added 25% making it an 8.5% position. Monday’s known for their work productivity tool. But it’s productivity tool that competes with Asana is only a proof of concept for, IMO, one of the many verticals that their WorkOS will transform. Monday is a customizable automation tool for every industry. I sold ZoomInfo to get the money due to the relatively lower revenue growth, despite my very favorable view of the recent acquisition by ZoomInfo of Chorus.ai.
Sold Global E Online. It’s not often one counterfactual will completely change whether or not to hold a more than small position. Thanks WSM, for your explanation of the terms of the Shopify deal. This did it for me. I Also appreciate your breakdown of their Take-rate . Perhaps It’s worth the gamble that Global E management is as good as they seem, perhaps not. I say I’m not sure just yet. When I have nine other companies that are more amazing, IMO, I don’t need that question mark in my thesis. Global-e is back on my short list of possible future investments. I added back to the positions I sold from when I’d bought into Global-e.
I sold a bunch more Crowdstrike. This time to buy even more Cloudflare, making Cloudflare a 10% position again. I did so after reading Muji’s last two posts in his Premium Service where he makes the point of saying the SASE networks are able to provide end point protection and so much more. And this from the Cloudflare blog: Cloudflare’s global threat intelligence acts as an immune system for the Internet — employing machine learning models to learn from and mitigate attacks against any customer to protect them all? I’m not in a hurry to change out Crowdstrike. There is enough end points that Crowdstrike can hold an agent on and the IOT and 5G isn’t here yet, not really. But, I have to side with +50% growers (Cloudflare and Zscaler) when the +70% grower (Crowdstrike) could be disrupted by the 50% growers. I try not to trade on technology related issues alone; however, this looks to me more like TAM and Moat issues related to the technologies involved. I still have 9.5% in Crowdstrike so I obviously believe their TAM continues to be large enough.
Trimmed Upstart and Crowdstrike to buy some more Lightspeed. Upstart got to 30% of portfolio, too high for me. I don’t believe Cloudflare will disrupt Crowdstrike;but it’s not impossible. Did you see what Cloudflare did today, regarding pricing for storage, to AWS? And a short attack on Lightspeed was FUD IMO. Thanks to Prospero13 for linking the Shorts’ Twitter feed.
Global E Online (GLBE)
January Porfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-jan-port-summary-34738748……
February Portfolio Summary https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-feb-portfolio-summary-347…
March Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-march-portfolio-review-34……
April Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-april-portolio-review-348…
May Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-may-investing-decisions-3…
June Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/willo2006-june-investing-decisions-3…
July Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-july-portfolio-summary-34…
August Portfolio Summary here: https://discussion.fool.com/jason8217s-august-investing-decision…
Heartfelt thanks to every one on Saul’s Investing Discussions for following the rules of this great Board! I’m proud to be one in a group of individuals who’ve come together with an agreed upon goal, such as this.
Special thanks to all the Board Managers for insisting on these rules and to Saul specifically for his tireless efforts in making this, without a doubt, the best place to discuss Hyper-Growth companies.