This board is sacred to me. Amazing people like JonWayne share their knowledge/analysis/concerns/epiphanies. There is underlying trust that it is done in good faith. If someone breaks that faith (usually newcomers), we shoo them away by calling them trolls.
Yes, JonWayne is critical of UPST, but he backs it up with his reasons. I would want to listen to his every single reason to make sure I am aware of it.
Going into Q3 earning I had 42% invested in UPST. I sold my house and entire proceeds went into buying UPST at $207. I saw it hit $400 and then back to $79. UPST was ~16% going into Q4 earnings just because of price fluctuation. I know it hurts, but NEVER disrespect or suppress an opposing voice which is reasonable, otherwise you will end up in the echo-chamber.
We don’t deserve to be rich just because we stumbled upon this board. Ganges of wisdom is flowing here because good people are paying it forward… let’s not insult that… water is beautiful, but your stomach might not be ready to digest it, use filters, drink it with caution…
Thank you JonWayne for all the research and all the sharing… please keep it up!
I absolutely agree. I want to hear John’s opinions and his reasoning behind them. I think we all need to learn; History repeats itself. Prior to UPST Q3 report, we had hundreds of posts praising the company. We also had double that number after the report came out, asking why no one predicted the results.
Right or wrong, everyone one has an opinion, and it should be heard. I can totally understand why John is reserved on UPST. If we don’t let all the opinions be heard, we will end up with hundreds of posts praising a company, leading members to a false sense of security.
I would like to second this opinion! I find JonWayne’s thoroughness and attention to detail incredibly inspirational, and while I don’t always necessarily agree with his conclusions, I would hate to see fewer posts of that quality on this great board. Cheers
I think mizzmonika’s post in the other thread (83158) summarized the situation well. While it’s very important to have intellectual tension around our stocks, I’ve noticed a consistent pattern of Jon Wayne being extremely negative towards Upstart, I think largely to validate his own decision to sell a few weeks ago.
I think the thread Jon Wayne posted on Jan 21 about deliquencies did a lot of damage. Several members pointed out the flaws in his argument, but it still resulted in a lot of people bailing on their position at what was close to the bottom of this current correction (so far). Making a half-researched ALARMIST post like that on a HIGHLY EMOTIONAL day for anyone in growth stocks was really poor form and no doubt resulted in people losing lots of money by getting scared out of their position. And the stock has recovered 60%+ since then. I think Jon Wayne should consider taking a breather for a few months before chiming in on Upstart again, as he is still hyper-influenced by confirmation bias imo.
Making a half-researched ALARMIST post like that on a HIGHLY EMOTIONAL day for anyone in growth stocks was really poor form and no doubt resulted in people losing lots of money by getting scared out of their position.
I challenge you (and all of us) to do half as much research as Jon has, and share it on the board! And if anyone acted on what he said, that was their decision and theirs alone. No one here is responsible for the decisions others make!!! If anyone followed him and borrowed his conviction whether to buy or to sell, that was their own fault.
I think Jon Wayne should consider taking a breather for a few months before chiming in on Upstart again, as he is still hyper-influenced by confirmation bias imo.
I think he should do as he wishes. You are free to ignore his posts, rebut them, learn from them, or whatever you wish. PLEASE, NO MORE POSTS FROM ANYONE complaining about what other posters write. We are all entitled to our own opinions! And we all must MAKE OUR OWN DECISIONS.
I vehemently disagree with your argument above. JonWayne is not responsible for the choices other people make. Period. This board is about the exchange of research and ideas. Having different ideas and points of view is CRITICAL. You are free to disagree, but calling on him to take a break because you disagree with his views? Calling him alarmist? characterizing his post as half-researched?
Give me a break.
I disagree with him. But I want to be challenged, so I can interrogate my decisions and choices. Otherwise, we might fall prey to groupthink.
Like many said on this board, this board is not investment advisor and we should do our own research and make our decisions.
Jon’s original post about deliquencies was not completley useless. It brought out the fact UPST is venturing into other credit worthiness customers thus causing increased deliquencies. This was confirmed by CEO from what I’ve read somewhere. This is not fault of AI but the branching into lower tier of credit worthiness thus increase UPST’s risk going forwarth. It’s no longer seeking hidden prime borrowers because deliquency is going up. The reason they did it is the pressure to keep the hyper growth in revenue. JMHO.
I think mizzmonika’s post in the other thread (83158) summarized the situation well. While it’s very important to have intellectual tension around our stocks, I’ve noticed a consistent pattern of Jon Wayne being extremely negative towards Upstart, I think largely to validate his own decision to sell a few weeks ago.
I think the thread Jon Wayne posted on Jan 21 about deliquencies did a lot of damage. Several members pointed out the flaws in his argument, but it still resulted in a lot of people bailing on their position at what was close to the bottom of this current correction (so far). Making a half-researched ALARMIST post like that on a HIGHLY EMOTIONAL day for anyone in growth stocks was really poor form and no doubt resulted in people losing lots of money by getting scared out of their position. And the stock has recovered 60%+ since then. I think Jon Wayne should consider taking a breather for a few months before chiming in on Upstart again, as he is still hyper-influenced by confirmation bias imo.
First, you have no right to ask anyone to stop posting for a few months.
Second, it is Jon Wayne’s (or anyone’s right) to post negative (or positive) analysis about a stock, especially when he provides detailed reasoning for it.
Third, have you posted anything well researched yourself to criticize Jon Wayne’s post as “half researched”? please point us to it.
Fourth, people are responsible for their own investing decisions. There are thousands of opinions being offered about Upstart everywhere on the internet these days - not just Jon Wayne’s post or this board. If they are “scared out of their position” by a post, it only shows their lack of conviction. Nobody else can be held responsible for it.
Jon’s original post about deliquencies was not completley useless. It brought out the fact UPST is venturing into other credit worthiness customers thus causing increased deliquencies. This was confirmed by CEO from what I’ve read somewhere. This is not fault of AI but the branching into lower tier of credit worthiness thus increase UPST’s risk going forwarth. It’s no longer seeking hidden prime borrowers because deliquency is going up. The reason they did it is the pressure to keep the hyper growth in revenue. JMHO.
CloudL - I think you missed the point where the CEO pointed out that delving into higher risk credit is a “feature, not a bug”. Really, this is pretty well understood now and some useful posts on this board clarified that, as did Bert Hochfeld and others on Twitter, and Brad Freeman at https://stockmarketnerd.substack.com/p/upstart-deep-dive
This is what the CEO said in the Earning Call:
“Note that this recent upturn in loan default is not to be confused with the longer-term secular vintage-over-vintage increase in absolute default profile on our platform, which has been alluded to in some public forums. This phenomenon is almost purely a function of change in borrower mix, as our models expand the frontiers of approvability and pull more applicants into the lendable universe over time.
Viewed in this context, rising absolute default rates that are correctly predicted and priced are not a bug but in fact, a feature of our platform and a trend we expect to see continue as we successfully progress against our core corporate mission of expanding access to credit.”
Going into Q3 earning I had 42% invested in UPST. I sold my house and entire proceeds went into buying UPST at $207. I saw it hit $400 and then back to $79.
Is this a reasonable risk profile even for a highly concentrated portfolio? Anyone want to comment on the wisdom of selling your house to put it all in one stock?
Going into Q3 earning I had 42% invested in UPST. I sold my house and entire proceeds went into buying UPST at $207. I saw it hit $400 and then back to $79.
Is this a reasonable risk profile even for a highly concentrated portfolio? Anyone want to comment on the wisdom of selling your house to put it all in one stock? – PP
I assumed it was humor.
If not, I would think:
If you have enough money/assets, it doesn’t matter if you have your entire home equity into one stock.
Maybe he didn’t have much equity in the house and it doesn’t matter.
If essentially the entire net worth is in one stock, it depends on the ability to recover from a major loss. We lost just about our entire net worth in a home construction business (1993) and I was able to recover and retire 17 years later (2010).
I wouldn’t advise a mega-concentration for most folks, but as a TMFer… I’m not supposed to give individual investment advice.
Rob
Rule Breaker Home Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
