Keeping up with China

America’s defense industry is struggling to achieve the kind of speed and responsiveness to stay ahead in a high-tech arms race with competitors such as China, an unreleased draft of a new Pentagon report on the defense industry warns.

The first ever National Defense Industrial Strategy, which is set to be released in the coming weeks by Pentagon acquisition chief William LaPlante, is meant to be a comprehensive look at what the Pentagon needs in order to tap into the expertise of small tech firms, while funding and supporting traditional companies to move faster to develop new tech.

As it stands now, the U.S. defense industrial base “does not possess the capacity, capability, responsiveness, or resilience required to satisfy the full range of military production needs at speed and scale,” according to a draft version of the report, obtained by POLITICO.



Of course not. It never will under the current system. Consider the N95 mask as an example. What has happened to the newly-expanded production capacity added 2020-2022? Or the needed ventilators? And so on. The problem can never be solved unless an ongoing investment is made (by the govt) to keep the machines AND supply chains feeding the production capacity for when they ARE needed. Preparedness isn’t free.

None of the economic meltdown in China currently happening is retrievable as long as Xi is in power and the RMB is pegged to the USD. This mess will take as long as three decades to clear up.

China in real terms has been spending $700 billion according to some US Senators on their military. The issue is capital costs. The military needs upkeep. China is coming to an economic halt.

OPEC is cutting oil production by 2 million bbl per day. That won’t be enough to support oil prices.

My goal back in September was $75. My new goal is $65 which will bankrupt the Russians after the hyperinflation printing to pay the army. By late spring 2024, Putin may be dead. Second half of 2024 at the latest Putin will be dead. Russia’s economy will need at least a decade to recover.

XOM is on its way to $80. It will probably never recover.