The LGIH website has information where they are currently selling homes. The are organized by metro area and then they drill down to individual communities. There are maps available for each metro area designating where the communities are. It appears that most of the communities are on the outskirts of the metro area, sometimes a great distance from the city center. For example, the “Denver” homes are actually quite a distance North of Denver (East of Boulder). Based on the marketing words such as “Grand Opening”, “Sold Out”, “Last Chance”, etc. we might make assumptions about what fraction of homes are still available in each communities.
Below is a summary of the 66 communities on their website. Of these, 10 are sold out or almost sold out. Another 28 are just starting to sell or fairly new communities.
STATE CITY COMMUNITIES NOTES
AZ Phoenix 6 1 almost sold out; 1 fairly new
AZ Tuscon 3 1 new; 1 fairly new
CO CO Springs 1 new
CO Denver 5 3 new; 1 fairly new
GA Atlanta 9 1 sold out; 1 almost sold out; 3 new; 2 fairly new
GA West Athens 1
NM Albuquerque 2 1 new; 1 fairly new
NM Rio Rancho 2 1 new; 1 almost sold out
NC Charlotte 7 4 new; 3 fairly new
TX Austin 3
TX Houson 10 2 sold out; 2 almost old out; 2 farily new; 1 expansion
TX San Antonio 6 1 new
TX Dallas 10 2 almost sold out; 1 grand opening
WA Olympia 1 grand opening 3/16
Now from the Sept 2015 quarter results, below are the owned/controlled lots in each region. I’ve included the prior year’s (Dec 2014) lot inventory.
So while inventory in Texas is over 50% of the total, the percentage is declining. Also, within Texas there are communities in several metro areas including Houston, Austin, Dallas/Ft Worth, and San Antonio. Each of these metro areas can be examined for market dynamics that might affect supply and demand for new homes at the entry level.
Interesting information Chris. The strategy of locating further out with starter homes reminds me of Kaufman and Broad back in the mid 1980s. If you could not pay in cash you paid in commute. I bet it is easier to get through planning departments further out.
I don’t think it’s a strategy, but a ROI consideration. The quantity of available tracks in a metro area are few and expensive. New communities are typically build at the edges of metros where the land is plentiful and cheaper.
We have seen this in Phoenix, They keep building farther and farther out where we have cheap land in all directions.
Some people are willing to buy a big, cheap house in the boonies and deal with the commute.
“Some people are willing to buy a big, cheap house in the boonies and deal with the commute.”
As I recall when gas prices soared, those outlying communities withered on the vine as the cost to commute was an ungodly percentage of some people’s
income.
Fortunately in 10-20 years you’ll sit in your driverless car and be able to start work if you wish the moment your commute begins.
Unless of course you are a lifeguard…
Seriously though, the entire argument about commuting or living closer to work isn’t going to go away anytime soon. Both have advantages and disadvantages.
I tend to lean toward living closer to work and not spending as much time commuting with the time lost, wear and tear on the vehicle, fuel, etc.
Then again, I love the outdoors and like to be able to get to the mountains in a short period of time. Fortunately for me, I am close to both.
Having been in residential construction (currently in ag/industrial/commercial) for years in the past and watching the boom bust (hello 2007/8) has kept me on the sidelines of LGIH. Yet it is very appealing and I am trying to learn more before pulling the trigger… or not.
Fortunately in 10-20 years you’ll sit in your driver less car and be able to start work if you wish the moment your commute begins.
This is an interesting point from a LGIH perspective. Driver less (ICE & electric) cars are the future of personal transportation and I believe its going to hit alot sooner than most people believe it will and I think it’s a reasonable stretch to imaging people willing to live farther out of a metro area and not have to deal with the hassle of the commute. Highways will eventually become optimized with switching protocols like we have in networks which would decrease transportation times overall.
Highways will eventually become optimized with switching protocols like we have in networks which would decrease transportation times overall
That’s gonna be awhile. Judging by the pace I see highway crews resurfacing roads, outfitting all of them with sensors and whatever else is needed won’t be completed for decades.
No need for switching algorithms or smart roads. The cars will be networked together, communicating in real-time, and use the connected compute power of that network to optimize travel in the aggregate.
I say in 10 years, all-electric, autonomous cars will be widely available. In 20 years, they will dominate, and “old” human-driven cars will likely be banned from interstates and perhaps even congested zones in rush hour. In 30 years, all personal surface travel will be by autonomous, plug-in vehicles.
I keep imagining an autonomous car in NY city. Programmed to not run over people, so they just keep walking through the crosswalk. There you are, fuming and you can’t even inch forward or honk the horn. I guess the drones will have to swoop down and scare them out of the street
