Life expectancy nearly doubled in the last century. That is a wonderful achievement and we are not likely to repeat that. Reasons are an end to smoking but also antibiotics, and clean water to drink. Plus much better health care.
Covid was a blow to those numbers. But also drug deaths from fentanyl, and too many suicides (often from depression and difficulty finding a good job when your plant closes).
Technology marches on. Better treatments for cancer and heart problems are coming along.
I think we expect more progress. But of course if we live to be 120, we might need more than knee replacements. Hope they make some progress on quality of life for those in that age group.
We’re pretty close to being able to offer folks the ability to upload your consciousness into the “cloud” and achieve immortality.
It won’t be long after that, that Private Equity will be offering the ability to download your consciousness into the body of a 20-year-old kidnapped from some third world country.
I think if you exclude infant and child mortality (i.e. what is the life expectancy of a 10 year old, it would be about 50-60 years old 100 years ago and in the 80s today. So much of the increase is from better medical care for infants, reduction in childhood deaths (disease and accidents)
All of us will probably reach 90. Both parents and my sisters barring any accidents.
My mother’s father is interesting. The mitochondria on the mother’s side is excellent into mid 90s. The father’s side for the rest of it is just as good or better. We have little knowledge of that scientifically but his family was relatively disease free. I will take it.
I will add my mother’s grandparents died younger. They were heavy smokers and drinkers. Not necessarily addicts but the culture had them drinking at 10 am with the workers they employed.
Smoking in some of our stats is the worst thing. I think that is because of lung cancer and ONLY assigning one cause of death for those stats. Drinking is a major contributor.
They do speak of the days when families lost all their children to diptheria. Now we have DPT shots. But don’t forget water borne diseases like cholera and typhoid. Killed many adults often rapidly. Chlorination of drinking water is from abt 1908.
Note that the automobile took horse manure out of the neighborhood.
A couple years ago The Lancet published an article on the growing impact of pollution on mortality. They estimated 6 million deaths annually - one in 6 - impacted by pollution. I guess that is one countervailing factor that will reduce life expectancy worldwide at an accelerating rate.