Life expectancy nearly doubled in the last century. That is a wonderful achievement and we are not likely to repeat that. Reasons are an end to smoking but also antibiotics, and clean water to drink. Plus much better health care.
Covid was a blow to those numbers. But also drug deaths from fentanyl, and too many suicides (often from depression and difficulty finding a good job when your plant closes).
Technology marches on. Better treatments for cancer and heart problems are coming along.
I think we expect more progress. But of course if we live to be 120, we might need more than knee replacements. Hope they make some progress on quality of life for those in that age group.
We’re pretty close to being able to offer folks the ability to upload your consciousness into the “cloud” and achieve immortality.
It won’t be long after that, that Private Equity will be offering the ability to download your consciousness into the body of a 20-year-old kidnapped from some third world country.
I think if you exclude infant and child mortality (i.e. what is the life expectancy of a 10 year old, it would be about 50-60 years old 100 years ago and in the 80s today. So much of the increase is from better medical care for infants, reduction in childhood deaths (disease and accidents)
All of us will probably reach 90. Both parents and my sisters barring any accidents.
My mother’s father is interesting. The mitochondria on the mother’s side is excellent into mid 90s. The father’s side for the rest of it is just as good or better. We have little knowledge of that scientifically but his family was relatively disease free. I will take it.
I will add my mother’s grandparents died younger. They were heavy smokers and drinkers. Not necessarily addicts but the culture had them drinking at 10 am with the workers they employed.
Smoking in some of our stats is the worst thing. I think that is because of lung cancer and ONLY assigning one cause of death for those stats. Drinking is a major contributor.
They do speak of the days when families lost all their children to diptheria. Now we have DPT shots. But don’t forget water borne diseases like cholera and typhoid. Killed many adults often rapidly. Chlorination of drinking water is from abt 1908.
Note that the automobile took horse manure out of the neighborhood.
A couple years ago The Lancet published an article on the growing impact of pollution on mortality. They estimated 6 million deaths annually - one in 6 - impacted by pollution. I guess that is one countervailing factor that will reduce life expectancy worldwide at an accelerating rate.
The report, released Thursday, found that life expectancy at birth was 78.4 years in 2023. That’s a significant rise — nearly a full year — from the life expectancy of 77.5 years in 2022.
“The increase we had this year — the 0.9 year — that’s unheard of prior to the pandemic,” said Ken Kochanek, a statistician at the National Center for Health Statistics who co-authored the report.
“Life expectancy in the United States never goes up or down any more than one- or two-tenths,” he said. “But then when Covid happened, you had this gigantic drop, and now we have a gigantic drop in Covid. So, you have this gigantic increase in life expectancy.”
Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and former Google engineer, predicts that humans will reach “longevity escape velocity” between 2029 and 2035:
What is longevity escape velocity?
This is the point when life expectancy increases by more than a year for each year that passes. This means that aging will not increase the annual chance of dying for people who are diligent about healthy habits and using new therapies.
How will we get there?
Kurzweil believes that AI will help simulate biological processes, which will lead to advancements in medicine. He also believes that medical advancement is speeding up, as evidenced by the rapid development of the COVID vaccine.
What will it mean?
Kurzweil believes that once we reach longevity escape velocity, we will be able to get back more years than we lose to aging. This doesn’t guarantee immortality, but it will reduce the likelihood of dying from year to year.
Nonsense. That vast majority of “life expectancy” gains have been because of the dramatic increase in children surviving childhood disease. A century ago people had huge families because they knew some would die in childhood. (Well, that and lack of contraception.)
At the turn of the 20th century life expectancy of a 50 year old was 20 years, so: age 70.
Now the life expectancy of a 50 year old is 28 years, so: age 78.
Meanwhile “average life expectancy has gone from 47 years to … now it’s 77. So of the “30 years increase, 23 are due to improvements in infant mortality.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but now that infant (and child) mortality has been mostly eliminated, you can’t go to that well again. It’s done. One time improvement (with exceptionally minor changes for the better) yet to come.
The fountain of youth will kill you. We have seen snake oil salesmen selling the fountain of youth side would could first record history.
Nothing will change.
I am concerned a very good friend using minerals etc…to live longer and shore up his health has in turn cased two or three organs to fail. He has stage 4 kidney disease. I do not know if it is both kidneys with kidney disease hence 2 or 3 organs. He lost his gallbladder a decade ago.
Yes, antibiotics and vaccines made a big difference.
I just finished reading a book on the Farmingham Study begun in 1948 after deaths from childhood diseases fell by 85% making heart disease the leading cause of death. Farmingham identified high blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol as major factors. Heart attack rates peaked in 1970 in the US. That improvement also contributes.
And i would not ignore the improvements to health from clean water eliminating deaths from cholera and typhoid–big killers in the 19th century. Also sewers. It was the age of wells and outhouses. And lets not forget the automobiles. In the age of the horse there was manure on every street. And piles of it not far away. And probably lots of flies.
And i would not discount future technology. DNA and crysper have much potential for improvements to health. And AI has great potential in drug development and maybe subtle differences in treatments and outcomes.
Technology marches on, sometimes with much success.
I have some calcium but no plaque. By taking a statin from 49 years old on up I have stopped the process of having a heart attack or strokes in older age.
My mitochondria is good for 94 years of age plus. My mother’s mother lived to 98. Her family commonly made it to 94. My grandfather’s family commonly made it to 94 as well. The paternal side makes it to their late 80s. Neither side has much cancer. Meaning our DNA on both sides of the family is good at repairing itself.
If I immigrate or live part time in the EU I might gain 5 years. Immigrants to the US average 5 extra years of life.
Yes, book shows statins come directly from the Framingham study. But use has probably plateaued. They are offered to almost everyone these days.
Regional differences in heart risk was recognized early on. It is attributed to diet, mostly fat and cholesterol. Wine drinking, Mediteranean diet etc help. But even meat has differences. Marbled feedlot beef in the US is post WWII and quite different from beef in Europe that tends to be grass fed and leaner.