Life expectancy

As investors, the most important consideration is not the national average life expectancy, but how long we (and our spouse) expect to live. That number changes with the starting age. It tells us how long (on average) we need our assets to last.

https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/i…

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/11/12/2020-24…

Of course, this is an average which should be adjusted for known factors.

At age 68, the table says that I have a life expectancy of 20.4 years. However, I was diagnosed with Stage 1 bilateral ER+ invasive ductal carcinoma in 2013. Although I was treated with a bilateral mastectomy and an aromatase inhibitor for 5 years, there is data which shows that the survivors of ER+ breast cancer decline in a linear fashion up to 20 years (and probably beyond) with only 10% surviving at 20 years. Also, both my parents died around age 70. So, even though I’m much more fit than most women my age, eat and exercise to keep fit, I’d be surprised if I live more than 10 years from now.

On the other hand, a woman in my fitness class (same age) still water skis and has a mother over 100 years old. The table would tell her that she also has a life expectancy of 20.4 years.

Since METAR is an investment board, each of us has to determine our risk/ reward balance given our life expectancy. I get the feeling that many investors may take unnecessary risks because they like watching the numbers go up, even though they probably won’t spend all that money in their life.

Wendy

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Since METAR is an investment board, each of us has to determine our risk/ reward balance given our life expectancy. I get the feeling that many investors may take unnecessary risks because they like watching the numbers go up, even though they probably won’t spend all that money in their life.

If you’re in the Top 5% of the income/wealth pyramid (as I expect many METARs are), you shouldn’t be using the average life expectancy table Wendy posted.

Not this:
https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/i…

At age 65, people in the Top 5% of income/wealth live 4 or 5 years longer than the median. Make your adjustments for cancer or an extreme health/fitness regime from that benchmark.

http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/health/

intercst

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…and beyond making prudent plans to have enough funds to live as habitual until your life is done, from time to time it is useful to discuss (as I have seen often on this board) spending some time money and effort on our more and more injured world of both humans and nature.

Tikkun Olam, “World Repair”, can be an extraordinarily powerful and healthful guide into retiring well and living longer.

david fb

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At age 65, people in the Top 5% of income/wealth live 4 or 5 years longer than the median.

But wait, what if you take a lot of brisk walks (20+ over non-walkers) AND are in the top 5%?

Mike

mschmit asks,

<<At age 65, people in the Top 5% of income/wealth live 4 or 5 years longer than the median.>>

But wait, what if you take a lot of brisk walks (20+ over non-walkers) AND are in the top 5%?

I’m sure there’s some correlation between wealth and health/fitness. The folks who purchase a Peloton machine are in an up-market demographic.

But sure, wealth and a brisk walk is likely to be a path to immortality.

intercst

Since METAR is an investment board, each of us has to determine our risk/ reward balance given our life expectancy.

To get a better grip on life expectancy, needs to be more detailed. This link is better but still not great. Doesn’t take into account family history of longevity. I’d expect life insurance companies to have better data as to what adds/subtracts years.

https://www.johnhancock.com/life-insurance/life-expectancy-c…

According to this, my life expectancy is 95 (currently 57). Sounds unreal but all my grandparents made it to mid/late 90s. Parents still alive and mid 80s. Have a healthy lifestyle and no medical problems. Of course tomorrow I could be killed in an auto accident by a distracted, texting teen.

JLC

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" Of course tomorrow I could be killed in an auto accident by a distracted, texting teen."

I like cycling, but I haven’t gone on an extended ride on roads for a couple of years, been riding
paved rail trails, but mostly trail riding on a “mountain” bike ( no moutains here ). Cycling
is a great activity because it’s a great workout without the pounding of running.

There is a beautiful local ride up a Peninsula that is hilly and has great views
of Bays in each direction, and is loaded with vineyards, cherry and apple trees, andsoon
the apple and cherry trees will be blooming. On a blue sky day, it’s like pedaling inside a real life picture. I’m thinking of risking it when the trees start blooming, but there are so many distracted drivers on the road here, it is definitely a roll of the dice.

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As investors, the most important consideration is not the national average life expectancy, but how long we (and our spouse) expect to live.

Why limit yourself? You might live to 120 and beyond. Way back when I wondered if I’d see 2000. I did!

After one stops having an income stream from a job or a business one needs an income stream from one’s assets, in my case my portfolio. I split my port between growth and income, sufficient income to cover ordinary expenses and a bit more. The rest (most if it) goes for growth. With income and a good cash reserve one can ignore the volatility inherent in growth stocks.

The Captain

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distracted drivers on the road

The retired California highway patrolman who taught me how to survive while riding motorcycles began and ended every training session with these words:

“Always remember that They are All trying to KILL YOU and your only chance of survival is reflexive defensive riding at the core of every riding decision you make.”

He saved my life by pounding that in so deep that even when joy and bliss might have overcome judgement – they didn’t. “They” came very very close to killing me two times, but all I lost was a few feet of skin.

david fb

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To get a better grip on life expectancy, needs to be more detailed…

WORD! My risk of a shorter life span has just increased. Well, the risk was always there, apparently…just masked by healthy lifestyle and the ASCVD 10 year risk assessment.

https://discussion.fool.com/another-appropriate-podcast-35104475…

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Here’s another calculator that asks for more information.
https://www.livingto100.com/calculator

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I split my port between growth and income, sufficient income to cover ordinary expenses and a bit more. The rest (most if it) goes for growth. With income and a good cash reserve one can ignore the volatility inherent in growth stocks.

The Captain

Hmmm… great minds…

Our picture here is a mirror of what you’re doing. Ensure the (A) cash stream side, and let the (B) side of the picture run its at-times volatile course.

Right now, we’re down on the volatility picture along with everyone else, but the (A) side is fine and well.

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PucksFool,

Here’s another calculator that asks for more information.
https://www.livingto100.com/calculator

Sobering news – my life expectancy is 97.

That last question has quite an effect. I have one aunt that made it to 100 – that pushed my life expectancy from 88 to 97. Absent that, the men in my family seem to die in their 70’s, women late 80’s.

intercst

“Always remember that They are All trying to KILL YOU and your only chance of survival is reflexive defensive riding at the core of every riding decision you make.”

great advice !

Here’s another calculator that asks for more information.
https://www.livingto100.com/calculator

Are they kidding??? This calculator said 97 for me. That makes little sense. And their questions were generally badly formed. And zero questions about income!

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