Looks Like $7500 EV Credit is Going Bye Bye

Musk has now made it clear that he believes the “woke mind virus” is a bigger threat to humanity than climate change.

Musk even laid out a scenario where removing the tax credit would hurt Tesla, but he believes it would hurt other automakers more – removing some of the competition. That’s a direct contradiction to what Musk has said many times in the past, which is to encourage the entire auto industry to go electric.

Elon is willing to slow down the entire US EV industry as long as Tesla can come out on top in the next few years.

Well it appears Elon is an evil JC rather than the savior of the world. Big surprise…NOT

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So, Musk’s calculation is that. while TFG wants to burn down the EV industry, Musk’s brand is so strong people will buy his cars anyway, at any price. subsidy, or not, and he’ll make money, regardless if other companies buy carbon credits from Tesla, or not.

Where have I seen this mentality before? oh, yeah.

RS store manager “our prices are 40% higher than the competition”

RS President Bernie Appel “we do people a favor when we sell them our stuff”.

RS store manager “we are not competitive anymore”.

Bernie Appel “I’ve been in this business forty years. I know everything”

Steve

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Aside from market distortions caused by subsidies, IIRC, Tesla is the only company here that makes a profit from selling an EV. It makes a lot of sense for him to oppose government subsidies that boost his competitors.

DB2

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Your left off part of the sentence.

It makes a lot of sense for him to oppose government subsidies that boost his competitors … now that he has used them to get to scale, boost his business, and become profitable.

Clearly he is happy to have had the advantage, now wishes to take it away from others. I would happily change my mind if he voluntarily returned the subsidies that buyers got to the Federal coffers so that everyone would be operating on a level playing field. Tesla is profitable, right? What better way to use the profits than to repay the government(s) which have been so generous to him?

Ha ha ha. Ho ho ho. Hee hee. I crack myself up.

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Is it ‘equitable’? No, but he’s not paid to be a social worker. Tesla had/has the first mover advantage. Interest rates for car loans used to be cheaper as well. Tesla is not unionized and, IIRC, that puts the company at a disadvantage when at the IRA government trough. Tesla wasn’t included at the White House EV summit under the current administration. Et cetera.

Competition makes the world go round…

DB2

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Remove all oil subsidies as well.

Delete Delete Delete.

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Along with those for renewables (which are much larger, both in absolute terms and in dollars per energy produced).

Here are the 2022 numbers by energy type (subsidies and total energy produced) courtesy of the EIA:

         Million$/TrillionBTU   Million $    Trillion BTU
Solar           4.153             7,522        1,811
Geothermal      1.665               353          212
Wind            0.947             3,592        3,791
Coal            0.072               873       12,033
Biomass         0.060               312        5,171
Nuclear         0.048               390        8,065
Oil & Nat Gas   0.033             2,304       68,804

The subsidy dollar per energy generated is 13x for wind and 57x for solar.
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/pdf/subsidy.pdf

DB2

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Not counting the military force expended to keep the Middle East as stable as it can be, the foreign aid given to Israel to make sure it doesn’t get swamped, the implicit nuclear insurance guarantees so that industry doesn’t have to pay actual ones, etc. etc.

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Well, we discussed that back in August in this thread: Pulling the plug - #48 by DrBob2

Albaby came up with a WAG of $23 billion be year. Add that to the $2 billion in subsidies for gas and oil and you get $25 billion for our 69 trillion BTU. That’s $0.36 billion per trillion BTU.

Solar subsidies are $7.5 billion for 1.8 trillion BTU. That works out to $4.2 billion per trillion BTU, which is almost 12x the subsidies for gas and oil.

Add that to the $2 billion in subsidies for gas and oil and you get $25 billion for our 69 trillion BTU. That’s $0.36 billion per trillion BTU.

Solar subsidies are $7.5 billion for 1.8 trillion BTU. That works out to $4.2 billion per trillion BTU, which is almost 12x the subsidies for gas and oil.

Irrelevant to this discussion, I would say.

Also not relevant to “Remove all oil subsidies as well.”

DB2

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Now US legacy automakers crawl on their hands & knees to Trump.
Whining:“100% tariff isn’t enough. We NEED the tax credit too!”
https://insideevs.com/news/741977/auto-industry-trump-trump-credits/
Auto Industry Urges Trump: ‘Preserve The Tax Credits’

the country’s top auto industry lobbying group wrote a letter to President-elect Donald Trump. It had a clear message: Don’t mess with the electric vehicle tax credits.

But the urgency of that letter is palpable. Automakers want to continue manufacturing EVs and remain competitive with the rest of the world, especially China.

Currently the only way legacy auto makers remain competitive with China is to keep the Chinese EVs out of the US market space with draconian tariffs.

I believe BYD will be coming to the USA in 2 or 3 years. First, BYD has to establish its world wide presence in other markets first.

So it’s not enough to make Chinese EVs cost 40% to 60% to 80% (depending on which day TFG speaks) more? Currently, that should work.

Maybe the ‘whiners’ don’t believe the tariffs will happen…

Pete

Oh, the tariffs will happen. An outright ban on Chinese “connected car” technology, the stuff that lets the OEM update a car’s software remotely, for instance, is also under active consideration right now, before the even more China-hostile regime takes over.

The problem is, the USian companies that have invested Billions in EV technology and facilities, would need to write all that off, if EVs were prohibitively more expensive than ICE vehicles.

I forget right now, how many Billions Ford is sinking into an assembly plant and battery plant in Tennessee, and another battery plant in Michigan.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/09/23/blueoval-city-groundbreaking.html

Last spring, VW broke ground on a $2B plant to build Scout EVs, and Billions more invested in Rivian to obtain Rivian’s software suite.

Hyundai just started up production at it’s newly built EV plant in the US. That plant cost $7.59B.

If EVs become unsaleable here, all that investment goes to money heaven.

Steve

Some of Chinese factories in the cities they reside in are paid for, but what is shipped overseas does not include the factory costs or is sold at a loss. It is called dumping. It has long been illegal globally. The tariff in that regard will be legitimate.

I will begin my mea culpa next in another thread.

fwiw, I was watching a piece on Ford’s retrenchment in Europe this evening.

The piece mentioned that, when the German government stopped it’s EV subsidies, EV sales fell 37%. The government, as of this fall, has been considering re-instituting EV subsidies of some sort.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-end-e-vehicle-subsidy-programme-2023-12-16/

Ford’s problems are greater than that, as they are loading up their cars with gimmicks that many people care not one whit about, and escalating prices beyond what people are willing to pay. And their quality sux too. Ford leads the world in warranty claims expense, as a percent of sales.

Steve