Luck often helps

No, not Andrew Luck. Remember, we’re leaving the NFL alone.

Not Andrew Left.

Just dumb luck. Mine was, I trimmed SHOP 11% yesterday. I just needed to raise some funds to buy some things…I ended up sitting on that money until today, indecisive about what to buy. I went ahead and sold the SHOP shares (mind you, only 11% of my oversized position) at $118, thinking that the valuation was high (in the short term) and my position was plenty big, but maybe I’d get lucky and get a better price sometime to add back. Didn’t really expect it to happen. Wasn’t counting on it. But I got lucky.

I not only added back those shares to get to 100% of my September-end share total (around $108). I also added 18% more SHOP shares on top of that (around $102). I’m now back at a level of SHOP shares owned that I haven’t had since early February.

I’m not going to attack Andrew Left or anyone at Citron. Who knows their mind? They may be profiting off this mightily…but they may also believe the things they say. And honestly, they’re not attacking me – they’re attacking Shopify. Rather than get defensive, I would like to defend Shopify. Rather than fight the attackers, I would fight their arguments.

And honestly, the arguments are weak. So most of the 500k merchants aren’t really robust businesses. Did anyone think they were? Does that change for a minute the revenues that Shopify has brought in? Or the aggregate amounts sold (GMV) by the merchants on their platform? It’s the good ole 80/20 rule, Pareto’s law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

20% of the merchants (or 10% or 5%) account for 80% (or 90% or 95%) of the revenue. That’s a system that holds true almost everywhere in the world.

Citron attacks the 90% but ignores the 10%. But the 10% is what Shopify is banking its business on, and I’m banking close to 20% of my money on.

Don’t be shaken,
Bear

27 Likes

would you share the reason why you trimmed SHOP and not another one of your stocks?

was it based on ‘extended valuation’?

tj

would you share the reason why you trimmed SHOP and not another one of your stocks?

was it based on ‘extended valuation’?

Pretty much. That and the fact that I had so much, I could trim just about 1/10th, and raise enough for a starter position in something new.

Bear