Andrew Rice writing for New York magazine, Nov. 18:
Last winter, the federal government released the results of its semi-annual reading and math tests of fourth- and eighth-graders, assessments that are considered the most authoritative measure of the state of learning in American elementary and middle schools. In nearly every category, the scores had plunged to levels unseen for decades—or ever. On reading tests, 40 percent of fourth-graders and one-third of eighth-graders performed below “basic,” the lowest threshold. A separate assessment of 12th-graders conducted this past spring—the first since schools were shuttered by the COVID pandemic—yielded similarly crushing results…. [end quote]
Sounds alarming, but the data I found does not show any “plunge”. It shows the top 25% are scoring about the same, and the bottom 75% are falling further behind. These scores are out of 500 points, and so the 10th percentile had 34% correct answers in 1992, and 32% correct answers in 2024. The decline seems gradual.
Trend in fourth-grade NAEP reading average and selected percentile scores
The 12th grade reading scores show a similar trend. Top 25% scores were about the same, and the bottom 75% scores declined slightly (10th percentile correct answers dropped from 50% to 45%).
percentile scores in NAEP reading for twelfth-grade students
How Public Education Failed in the Liberal Enclaves That Care About It Most, Nov 18, 2025
“The students scoring in the 90th percentile — the effortless and self-motivated learners — are still doing about as well on standardized tests, and in some cases better than ever, but the bottom-performing cohort is now doing far worse. “At the tenth percentile, achievement has declined by almost two grade equivalents,” Kane says.”
Lexile Grade Level Charts
“A research study was conducted to describe Lexile ranges for each grade. Data for these national student norms came from a sample of over 3 million students across the United States and the Virgin Islands who were administered tests that reported Lexile measures from 2010 to 2019.”
PROGRESS IN INTERNATIONAL READING LITERACY STUDY (PIRLS)
“Among the education systems reporting paper results in 2021, U.S. 5th-graders’ average score on the PIRLS 2021 reading scale (548) was higher than the average scores of their peers in 24 education systems and lower than the scores of their peers in 3 education systems.”
Out of UC San Diego we find this discouraging report:
Between 2020 and 2025, the number of students whose math skills fall below middle-school level increased nearly thirtyfold, reaching roughly one in eight members of the entering cohort.
The high school math GPA was 3.6 for those incoming students who needed remedial math at UCSD. That’s quite some grade inflation.
Does this include students in private/parochial schools and home schooled students? Does it also include students with IEP (Individualized Education Plans) for students with special learning needs? If so how were their needs addressed for the test?
It includes all admitted new students. The report does discussion two issues. The state has limited the number of out-of-state students. If they are better qualified (not mentioned) then that would increase the percentage of remedial students.
The report spends a fair amount of time discussing the increase in LCFF+ students. These are students from public schools where “more than 75 percent of the school’s total enrollment is composed of students who are identified as either eligible for free or reduced-price meals, or English learners, or foster youth.” They make up about 25% of UCSD enrollees.
Getting back to high school grade inflation, admission to the UC system requires high school Algebra 1, Geometry and Algebra 2 classes. The remedial students had an average math GPA of 3.6 in these courses.
For those interested, the report also discusses problems in reading and writing.
Maybe? However, most immigrant cultures are intense regarding education. Their children will go to school, will study, and will perform. Or else.
Which is why a lot of first-generation immigrant kids win spelling bees and math olympics. Current spelling bee champion is Faizan Zaki (parent from India).
I think it’s probably irrelevant. AI is going to put most of both the illiterate and literate population out of work, and will be able to do math for them.
I suspect that most Americans are also lacking in farming skills today.
There are some cultures/parents in which that occurs.
Is that a common occurrence or outlier happenings?
I would welcome some facts,figures, data regarding that.
No, as your our chart illustrates, immigrant populations as a percentage of the whole were at an all time high in 1990 and has been climbing steadily ever since - all while this metric was improving for most of this century and has a correlated drop during Covid.
