Has the Market Reached Capitulation Yet?

[tjscott0]

I would say no even though the odds for a .5% interest rate hike are higher. Job growth continues and the belief in a soft landing is fading. And obviously inflation wasn’t a short term phenomenon. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank gas not reduced Powell’s ardor to continue the interest rate hike.
Mr Market has not yet severely impacted my returns. +.44% for 3 years, -3.7% for 1 year, and -3.2% YTD.
The S&P 500 was down 18.9% in 2022 but is up .91% in 2023. But to hear the wailing and rending of clothing from some of opinion makers- a depression is nigh.

I suppose the wealthy can no longer obtain near zero rate loans on their portfolios but I expect they still spend. And I have been quite surprised that consumer spending is still strong amongst those that live paycheck to paycheck and will be paying 20% interest on their credit card balances. Methinks it will only when that cadre quit spending will corporate profits then decline and Mr Market tanks.
Will Powell get his timing right? We’ll see. Volcker eased up too soon and had to reapply increasing interest hikes. I suspect that experience is on Powell’s mind.

[FCorelli]

Do you have an idea of how long it will take to reach this point?

Whenever I read about capitulation the source always refers to the “VIX” as a way to measure it. It should be 40+. The past 14 months through all these sharp “up” and sharp “down” gyrations it hasn’t gotten anywhere near 40 and that includes the last 2 days which featured talk of “bank failures!”

[WendyBG]

Nowhere near capitulation!

The markets have been in an “everything bubble.” Look at previous bubbles to see what capitulation looks like.

Shiller PE Ratio

Wendy

[Leap1]

There is no such thing as capitulation in this bear market. There are just some much better entries into equities. Perhaps carefully chosen bond entries but that is not my direction in life.