On Oct 27, 2023 at 12:44 pm pacific (3:44pm eastern) I sent this text regarding the DJIA: “32326.20 I call bottom Oct 27 2023, day is not over 12:44pm [PDT] Bottom? was 5 min ago.”
I went all in, I mean ALL in.
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Interesting.
Can you tell us something regarding your reasoning and expectations?
david fb
You have to be a short term trader. The Feds did exactly as expected today and markets recovered a bit. But I think everyone is waiting for the Feds to cut interest rates. And that is probably a few months away.
Maybe before the election.
Until then we expect market volatility. Not much price movement–except when companies miss their earnings numbers. Ups and downs trading over a narrow price range.
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I generally like to bet on Red.
Andy
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Red is almost a 50% chance, oh, 50% that is what my portfolio went up today. When I saw the bottom I bought options and got lucky. My biggest one day in 30 years.
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I had been watching Parker Hannifin with interest for months, as it slowly fell about 50 points. Today, it released it’s quarterly report, and flew over 30 points.
I have no idea if it has bottomed, or if it will start to rot off again in a few days.
Steve
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Well at least you realized it was luck. My friend used to play Pai Gow and it was great, until it wasn’t.
Andy
Wow. Congratulations! I am too old for that now. Hmmm. Just watched this and it is suitable to post here as a salutation:
d fb
Luck, 30 years of experience mostly during the big moves, a few hundred hours of research and hundreds of spreadsheets.
This is not like the great recession as some thought, we are gong back to the activity of prepandemic plus inflation. Yesterday i said my portfolio was up 50% yesterday, I took some profits and still my portfolio has now double, in two days. I was waiting to this drop this close the elections. The last time I posted anything was in February. I wrote In February this is how it would happen. No one belived me then either but I am use to that.
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I appreciate your posts Know so keeping posting. But I do have a jaundiced eye for people who think they can predict anything. Most of the time they are incorrect and keep trying to get it right time and time again. But I do appreciate it when they try. But let’s see how good you are. I will track your prognostications and let’s see how good you are. Just a friendly trial.
Andy
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Thank you, I have a lot of hours into this and only get active during volatile times . Bank of America has had record quarters and yet record low P/E ratio so it was a no brainer. My charts had an alarm for when the dow went to what I calculated would be the last bottom before the elections. It hist it the 27th then it went down more that same day. I sold all stock and bought all options, very heavy in BAC. Nov 3 $27 strike went up from $.055 and I calculated it would hit 1.30 and put in a sell order for that which it hit this morning. It is now at 1.42 and climbing, I still have lots of others with later expiration dates so I am ok but being the expiration date today for the $27 call I thought I would play it safe. The portfolio has doubled in two days, have taken some profits to be safe but see the peak at around July to Oct 2024. There will be some headaches on the way so play safe. Thanks again flyerboys.
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Andy that is where we all are. We are tired of waiting it out for a bottom. Not that tired but we no longer have view of a downward market.
…and so it was in the beginning it will be in the end…
Unless we were to talk about the book of Revelations.
That is a wide prognostication.
Andy
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Sounds good Andy, March of 2007 I made calls to friends saying the market was going to take a huge, maybe 50% drop, Hence the name Know2soon I closed out and bought in March of 2009 but I could have waited 6 months to sell off, I did get back on the phones in mid 2008 and saved some people money and when they got back in in March, one friend made enough to by a new Firebird and still had more than his original investment. I did not do much in 2018 and 2019 then saw the market was ready to drop and the end of 2019, it just needed a catalyst.
I herd bout China and Covid and I went short with options that expired the end of Feb, 2soon again. 2021 I knew we were in a bubble, New years 2021 I sold everything and went short, I got that one, Sept 29 2022 I argued with friends that this was the bottom an it was, remember the run up? Then in February I posted to Fool we were days from a over 5% drop, got that one and at the same time I said things would smooth out in Feb 2024 and be at a record high before the elections. I have an unfair advantage, my business is 2 months ahead of the Market and I see trends before Wall Street reacts. They often may know but like to pump and dump like in Jan 2020 or do the reverse like they just did in Oct.
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Are you in the Banking or lending sector?
Andy