Market Trend Indicators

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
1

This week 4 of 30 indicators are “BEARish” (two more than last week).
“Modern Family”: Two(IBB,XRT) continues flashing “BEARish” and one(IWM) new “BEARish” signal.

Four of five PO’s are “Bullish”.
One new signal possible next week.

All of five MAC(10M) are “Bullish”
No BEARish signal expected next week but three of five MAC’s are negative.

All of five DBE(99d,5M) are “Bullish”.
No “BEARish” signals possible for the next 54d.

 **21-Jan-2022      |     PO's        PO's     |  MAC(10m)    MAC(10m)   |  DBE(99,105)  DBE(99,105)   |  Other_MAC  Other_MAC   |    Buy&Hold**
       =====            =====       =====        =====      =====         =====         =====        =====      =====          =====
 **Status Summary     |    Status    LastD_Chg   |   Status    LastD_Chg   |    Status       LastD_Chg   |  Last_MAC   LastD_Chg   |  Last_Chg(TTM)**
SP600 (IJR) Daily    **|**   BEARish   2022-01-07  **|** Bullish    2020-08-11  **|**   Bullish      2020-08-10  **|**  BEARish   2021-12-22  **|**    2020-11-19
SP400 (MDY) Daily    **|**   Bullish   2022-01-04  **|** Bullish    2020-07-27  **|**   Bullish      2021-10-20  **|**  BEARish   2022-01-20  **|**    2020-11-11
SP500EW (RSP) Daily  **|**   Bullish   2020-06-19  **|** Bullish    2020-07-21  **|**   Bullish      2020-09-02  **|**  Bullish   2021-10-20  **|**    2020-10-06
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily  **|**   Bullish   2020-06-26  **|** Bullish    2020-06-02  **|**   Bullish      2019-03-15  **|**  BEARish   2022-01-20  **|**    2020-05-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily   **|**   Bullish   2020-06-15  **|** Bullish    2020-06-01  **|**   Bullish      2019-03-13  **|**  Bullish   2021-10-21  **|**    2020-05-22
**Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) =  |**     1        **20%     |**     0      **0%       |**      0        **0%       |**     3       **20.0%     |** 
       -----            -----       -----        -----      -----         -----         -----        -----      -----          -----
 **Price Derivatives   |  PPO(Inter)    PPO(Slo)  |  (TP,SMA)  SMA(TP,210)  |  %Off_Hi(99)  Since_Hi(99)  |   Last_MAC    Last_MAC  |     Last_Price**
SP600 (IJR) Daily    **|**      -2.4%       -1.3%  **|**    -5.4%       111.80  **|**       -6.5%            51  **|**  (TP,50d)       -7.0%  **|**        104.80
SP400 (MDY) Daily    **|**      -0.8%        0.6%  **|**    -4.3%       497.57  **|**       -4.9%            51  **|**  (TP,50d)       -6.6%  **|**        472.30
SP500EW (RSP) Daily  **|**       2.3%        2.8%  **|**     0.3%       153.52  **|**       -1.9%            11  **|**  (TP,50d)       -3.5%  **|**        153.09
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily  **|**       2.9%        3.7%  **|**    -1.9%       100.60  **|**       -3.6%            12  **|**  (TP,50d)       -6.2%  **|**         97.91
SP500 (.SPx) Daily   **|**       5.6%        6.1%  **|**     0.5%      4408.45  **|**       -3.2%            12  **|**  (TP,50d)       -5.1%  **|**       4397.94
       -----            -----       -----        -----      -----         -----         -----        -----      -----          -----

More TMF detail: Market Trend Indicators ( Intermediate-Term )
https://discussion.fool.com/foolish-workshop-100136.aspx?mid=350…
https://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2021-347…
https://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2020-343…
https://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2019-341…
http://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2018-3294…
http://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2017-3254…
http://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2016-3206…
http://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2015-3156…
http://discussion.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-mi-screen…

GD_

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2 
  21-Jan-2022        |  Market Index  |  Market Index  |  ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily
 Family Titles:   |  Large Blend   |    Mid Blend   |   *"Grandpa"       "Tran"        "Grandma"   "Prodigal Son"  "Big Brother"    "Sister"*
 Index: (daily)      |      SP500     |    R1000EW     |      R2000     Transportation     Retail     Regional Bank      BioTech     SemiConductor
 **Symbol:      |      .SPX      |      EQAL      |      IWM             IYT           XRT             KRE            IBB            SMH**
                                
 **Status:(3)      |      Watch     |    Bullish     |    BEARish         Watch         BEARish         Bullish        BEARish        Bullish**
LastD_Change         |   2022-01-20   |   2021-12-30   |   2022-01-19     2022-01-21     2022-01-13     2022-01-07      2021-11-24     2021-10-22
Since_Change         |        1       |       22       |        2             0               8             14              58             91
Signals/Yr           |        3       |        6       |        6             7               8             6               6              6
%Bullish/Yr          |      95%       |      81%       |      69%             60%           67%             74%            45%            83%
Status MAC(50)       |   Resistance   |    Support     |   Resistance     Resistance     Resistance       Support       Resistance      Support
Status MAC(200)      |    Support     |    Support     |   Resistance       Support      Resistance       Support       Resistance      Support
 
Slope(50)            |       0%       |      -2%       |      -12%            -2%           -23%            3%            -12%            -3%
Slope(200)           |      14%       |       5%       |      -1%             1%            -4%             10%            -5%            26%
Last Price           |    4397.94     |      44.17     |     196.99         256.83          77.38         71.61           128.68         271.75
50-DMA               |    4665.53     |      46.55     |     221.31         270.29          91.73         72.66           148.84         303.10
200-DMA              |    4429.14     |      45.83     |     223.44         263.05          93.67         68.63           157.93         269.15
DMAC(50,200)         |      5.3%      |      1.6%      |      -1.0%          2.8%           -2.1%          5.9%           -5.8%          12.6%
 
%Off_52wH            |      -8.3%     |      -8.1%     |     -18.8%         -8.3%          -25.7%           NEW           -27.0%         -14.2%
LastD_52wH           |   2022-01-03   |   2021-11-15   |   2021-11-08     2022-01-04     2021-11-16     2022-01-14      2021-08-09     2021-12-27
Since_52wH           |       18       |       67       |       74             17             66             7              165             25
New_52wH/Yr          |       67       |       35       |       12             30             19             27              5              30
      ---                   ---              ---              ---             ---           ---             ---            ---            ---

 **Family Titles      Index              Symbol  Roles: leading indicators for how much follow through the major indices might experience**
|    Mid Blend     |  Russell 1000EW  |   **EQAL** - gauge the health of many Large-Mid companies within the U.S.
|   *"Grandpa"* |  Russell 2000    |   **IWM** *- gauge the health of many Small-Micro companies within the U.S.*
|   *"Tran"* |  Transportation  |   **IYT** *- measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand*
|   *"Grandma"* |  Retail          |   **XRT** *- measure strength economy and consumer confidence*
|  *"Prodigal Son"* |  Regional Bank   |   **KRE** *- measure the health of financial system in the U.S.*
|  *"Big Brother"* |  BioTech         |   **IBB** *- highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing*
|   *"Sister"* |  SemiConductor   |   **SMH** *- innovation: a major player technology trends*

The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”.
Intermedate-Term Trend indicators give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
My signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).

  • “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
  • “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages.
  • “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages.
  • “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages.
  • “Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
  • “Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)

GD_

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3

Doing something to search for bearish trends conformation (avoid trading).
I like the Invesco Russell 1000 Equal-Weighted ETF instead of S&P 500 for this.
This market index price moved below the 42wk-DMA for the first time since 2020-07-10.

 **EQAL     EQAL     EQAL     EQAL         EQAL       Typical    43Wk     10Wk     20Wk     20Wk       Status      Status      Status      Status**
 **Price -  Price -  Price -  Price -                   Price -    SMA      SMA    HC/LC -  HC/LC -    MAC(TP,43)  MAC(TP,10)    HC(20)      LC(20)**
 **Date       Open     High     Low     Close       Volume         TP     (TP,43)  (TP,10)  HC(20)   LC(20)      TP Below    TP Below     new HC      New LC**
              2020-12-31     38.95    39.06    38.39    38.99          414,893   38.813   31.772   36.890   39.100   30.811
              2021-01-08     39.11    40.43    38.14    40.28          244,177   39.617   32.085   37.587   40.430   30.811                            2021-01-08
              2021-01-15     39.85    40.97    39.85    40.45          269,239   40.423   32.507   38.258   40.970   30.811                            2021-01-15
              2021-01-22     40.83    41.00    40.20    40.50          308,464   40.567   32.914   38.734   41.000   30.811                            2021-01-22
              2021-01-29     40.45    40.82    38.98    38.98          202,162   39.593   33.288   39.042   41.000   30.811
              2021-02-05     39.47    41.13    39.19    41.03          122,781   40.450   33.624   39.337   41.130   30.811                            2021-02-05
              2021-02-12     41.25    42.08    41.25    42.04          147,134   41.790   33.978   39.702   42.080   31.710                            2021-02-12  2021-02-12
              2021-02-19     42.26    42.36    41.49    42.00          138,462   41.947   34.333   40.046   42.357   31.850                            2021-02-19  2021-02-19
              2021-02-26     41.86    42.66    40.87    41.21          619,579   41.580   34.648   40.333   42.660   31.850                            2021-02-26
              2021-03-05     41.83    42.34    40.49    42.04        2,310,812   41.623   34.955   40.640   42.660   31.850
              2021-03-12     42.06    43.63    42.06    43.63          383,133   43.107   35.315   41.070   43.630   31.850                            2021-03-12
              2021-03-19     43.76    44.08    42.62    42.97        2,046,472   43.223   35.643   41.430   44.080   32.495                            2021-03-19  2021-03-19
              2021-03-26     42.93    43.18    41.40    43.15          234,886   42.577   35.925   41.646   44.080   34.985                                        2021-03-26
              2021-04-01     42.95    43.50    42.65    43.47          155,414   43.207   36.179   41.910   44.080   36.090                                        2021-04-01
              2021-04-09     43.84    43.93    43.40    43.71          278,894   43.680   36.456   42.318   44.080   36.710                                        2021-04-09
              2021-04-16     43.64    44.57    43.63    44.51          521,011   44.235   36.761   42.697   44.566   37.180                            2021-04-16  2021-04-16
              2021-04-23     44.47    44.79    43.73    44.70          548,485   44.407   37.090   42.959   44.790   37.910                            2021-04-23  2021-04-23
              2021-04-30     44.70    45.30    44.70    44.79          271,369   44.930   37.424   43.257   45.300   37.910                            2021-04-30
              2021-05-07     45.00    45.62    44.48    45.60          218,121   45.232   37.760   43.622   45.620   37.910                            2021-05-07
              2021-05-14     45.74    45.90    43.89    45.17          217,011   44.987   38.076   43.958   45.900   38.140                            2021-05-14  2021-05-14
              2021-05-21     45.11    45.37    44.08    45.11          104,580   44.853   38.372   44.133   45.900   38.140
              2021-05-28     45.35    45.67    44.99    45.57          119,924   45.409   38.680   44.352   45.900   38.980                                        2021-05-28
              2021-06-04     45.93    46.20    45.60    46.17          148,138   45.990   38.987   44.693   46.200   38.980                            2021-06-04
              2021-06-11     46.19    46.48    46.08    46.48          157,221   46.346   39.286   45.007   46.480   38.980                            2021-06-11
              2021-06-18     46.52    46.52    44.60    44.61          196,724   45.243   39.568   45.163   46.520   39.190                            2021-06-18  2021-06-18
              2021-06-25     44.72    45.98    44.72    45.97          121,067   45.557   39.848   45.295   46.520   40.490                                        2021-06-25
              2021-07-02     46.04    46.18    45.58    45.96          201,541   45.906   40.144   45.445   46.520   40.490
              2021-07-09     45.89    45.89    44.67    45.83          104,169   45.463   40.446   45.499   46.520   40.490                2021-07-09
              2021-07-16     45.75    45.87    44.40    44.42          146,108   44.897   40.723   45.465   46.520   40.490                2021-07-16
              2021-07-23     43.96    45.19    43.45    45.16        1,337,475   44.600   41.027   45.426   46.520   41.400                2021-07-23              2021-07-23
              2021-07-30     45.17    45.83    44.95    45.49           89,608   45.423   41.333   45.483   46.520   41.400                2021-07-30
              2021-08-06     45.67    45.90    45.06    45.63        1,331,451   45.530   41.609   45.496   46.520   41.400
              2021-08-13     45.56    46.12    45.44    45.95           92,889   45.836   41.886   45.480   46.520   42.650                                        2021-08-13
              2021-08-20     45.83    45.83    44.57    45.14          152,220   45.180   42.147   45.364   46.520   43.400                2021-08-20              2021-08-20
              2021-08-27     45.42    46.44    45.42    46.40          145,880   46.087   42.459   45.448   46.520   43.450                                        2021-08-27
              2021-09-03     46.46    46.87    46.24    46.68          120,440   46.596   42.759   45.552   46.869   43.450                            2021-09-03
              2021-09-10     46.62    46.62    45.59    45.61           81,498   45.940   42.994   45.555   46.869   43.450
              2021-09-17     45.90    46.01    45.30    45.48          111,418   45.598   43.206   45.569   46.869   43.450
              2021-09-24     44.50    45.75    44.07    45.51          181,204   45.110   43.383   45.590   46.869   43.450                2021-09-24
              2021-10-01     45.58    45.98    44.62    45.23          168,243   45.275   43.549   45.658   46.869   43.450                2021-10-01
              2021-10-08     45.27    46.00    44.51    45.59          198,304   45.367   43.708   45.652   46.869   43.450                2021-10-08
              2021-10-15     45.69    46.88    45.32    46.52          150,782   46.238   43.883   45.723   46.880   43.450                            2021-10-15
              2021-10-22     46.37    47.33    46.28    47.18          158,549   46.930   44.078   45.832   47.330   43.450                            2021-10-22
              2021-10-29     47.33    47.52    46.45    46.85          148,122   46.938   44.267   46.008   47.515   43.450                            2021-10-29
              2021-11-05     47.01    48.17    47.00    48.00          181,934   47.725   44.456   46.172   48.174   43.450                            2021-11-05
              2021-11-12     48.24    48.24    47.42    47.94          137,243   47.867   44.629   46.299   48.240   43.450                            2021-11-12
              2021-11-19     48.03    48.15    46.91    46.94          194,531   47.332   44.786   46.438   48.240   43.450
              2021-11-26     47.11    47.38    45.78    46.16          143,663   46.440   44.945   46.522   48.240   43.450                2021-11-26
              2021-12-03     46.60    46.60    44.22    44.95        1,470,437   45.257   45.057   46.537   48.240   43.450                2021-12-03
              2021-12-10     45.21    46.74    45.14    46.29           90,988   46.057   45.156   46.615   48.240   44.069                2021-12-10              2021-12-10
              2021-12-17     46.00    46.65    45.34    45.95        1,399,419   45.980   45.250   46.676   48.240   44.069                2021-12-17
              2021-12-23     45.21    46.85    44.71    46.76          111,774   46.106   45.355   46.663   48.240   44.069                2021-12-23
              2021-12-31     46.80    47.61    46.66    47.34          114,442   47.203   45.485   46.690   48.240   44.069
              2022-01-07     47.47    47.89    46.60    46.85          266,678   47.113   45.578   46.708   48.240   44.069
              2022-01-14     46.69    47.46    46.01    46.82          256,921   46.762   45.661   46.612   48.240   44.069
              2022-01-21     46.54    46.54    44.11    44.17          165,708   44.940   45.716   46.319   48.240   44.069    2022-01-21  2022-01-21
 
**CountIF(1Yr)** 22-Jan-2021                                                                                                               1          14          21          17
**CountIF(2Yr)** 24-Jan-2020                                                                                                              18          29          34          33
**CountIF(3Yr)** 25-Jan-2019                                                                                                              28          42          50          41
**CountIF(4Yr)** 26-Jan-2018                                                                                                              43          67          61          57
**CountIF(5Yr)** 27-Jan-2017                                                                                                              43          75          82          71

GD_

3 Likes