This week 8 of 30 indicators are “BEARish” (two more than last week).
“Modern Family”: Three(IBB,XRT,IWM) continue flashing “BEARish” and zero “Bullish” signals.
Three of five PO’s are “Bullish”.
NO new signal expected next week.
Three of five MAC(10M) are “Bullish”
New “BEARish” signals are expected next week, one MAC is negative but not yet timed out.
All of five DBE(99d,5M) are “Bullish”.
No “BEARish” signals possible for the next 44d.
**Family Titles Index Symbol Roles: leading indicators for how much follow through the major indices might experience**
| Mid Blend | Russell 1000EW | **EQAL** - gauge the health of many Large-Mid companies within the U.S.
| *"Grandpa"* | Russell 2000 | **IWM** *- gauge the health of many Small-Micro companies within the U.S.*
| *"Tran"* | Transportation | **IYT** *- measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand*
| *"Grandma"* | Retail | **XRT** *- measure strength economy and consumer confidence*
| *"Prodigal Son"* | Regional Bank | **KRE** *- measure the health of financial system in the U.S.*
| *"Big Brother"* | BioTech | **IBB** *- highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing*
| *"Sister"* | SemiConductor | **SMH** *- innovation: a major player technology trends*
The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”. Intermedate-Term Trend indicators give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
My signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
“BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
“Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages.
“Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages.
“Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages.
“Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
“Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
Our own Mish, in several recent National TV appearances, believes that we are caught in a trading range that could expand and last for some time. The S&P 500 could be building a solid floor (4200) and a hard to break through ceiling (4700) and we may find ourselves oscillating between these two numbers for a while until there is some catalyst one way or the other to break through these ranges…
If you are a follower to Mish or our ETF Complete, you may have noticed the exposure to energy and agricultural commodities. Do not get too wrapped up in, and be very selective, in technology issues or small-cap stocks which right now are in bear phases.
trading range that could expand and last for some time. The S&P 500 could be building a solid floor (4200) and a hard to break through ceiling (4700) and we may find ourselves oscillating between these two numbers for a while
Isn’t that often the precedent of an extended bear market after a long bull? Not a one time big crash all the way down from the top into the abyss but first months of essentially going sideways (very prominent 2007 and 2008)?
Isn’t that often the precedent of an extended bear market after a long bull? Not a one time big crash all the way down from the top into the abyss but first months of essentially going sideways (very prominent 2007 and 2008)?
Guessing it could go either way.
The most obvious example of sideways action for the last 10 months or so are the Equal-weighted indices like EQAL.
Sideways doesn’t matter.
What matters is going down.
Going down, not just normal volatility.
It is known that you don’t want to be on a hair trigger to get out. That’s why my simple signal to get out is 4 consecutive weeks of the S&P 500 being below it’s 43 week SMA.
“believes that we are caught in a trading range that could expand and last for some time. The S&P 500 could be building a solid floor (4200) and a hard to break through ceiling (4700) and we may find ourselves oscillating between these two numbers for a while until there is some catalyst one way or the other to break through these ranges…”
“Guessing it could go either way.”
Nothing personal, but this is so profound that anyone could say it at any time, and they’d be right.
“believes that we are caught in a trading range that could expand and last for some time. The S&P 500 could be building a solid floor (4200) and a hard to break through ceiling (4700) and we may find ourselves oscillating between these two numbers for a while until there is some catalyst one way or the other to break through these ranges…”
Elan
“Guessing it could go either way.”
Nothing personal, but this is so profound that anyone could say it at any time, and they’d be right.
Rayvt Sideways doesn’t matter. What matters is going down. Going down, not just normal volatility.
It is known that you don’t want to be on a hair trigger to get out.
As to historic periods when S&P was stuck in a “Trading range” was not the concern. This is about the correlation of your screen ETF or Stock with a momentum ranking.
“Sideways does matter” for MI screens because that can be a problem depending on your trading frequency. Why do we choose Daily, Weekly, Monthly or Longer periods between updates for different MI screens? Because whipsaw is bad.