May the Odds Be Forever On Your Side

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
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Recently Saul posted that he had made a mistake in selling ZoomInfo Tech; which, if I am being brutally honest here - sounds to me more like a university in Florida than a high flying, High Growth company. If I read his post right - he says that fact that ZI has held up better in the Great Stock Sell-Off than most other companies. Note that as usual I might have garbled/mucked all that up and there was some other reason that Saul thought he made a mistake in selling ZI. Which brought two distinct thoughts to my always cluttered mind:

  1. Saul makes mistakes just like the rest of us mere mortals - just not as many, and by way of comparison his never appear to be via unforced error. In other words - even when he makes a mistake he never shoots himself in the foot. At least thats been my general observation as a fan his from afar.

  2. Thinking on his comments on ZI through, I wondered how ZI’s performance YTD might stack up against other growth companies that I am interested to some degree or other.

Here are the YTD Comparative Performance Rankings.

Note) I am a well known data garbler so, just to be safe, you might want to check the numbers for yourself.

A) TOP 20

1.) PLAN: -5.8%

2.) CRWD: -7.6

3.) BROS: -7.9

4.) ZI…: -20.7

5.) DOCS: -20.8

6.) NARI: -22.6

7.) BILL: -26.2

8.) DDOG: -27.5

9.) NCNO: -31.1

  1. FROG: -31.1

  2. AMD.: -31.9

  3. NET.: -33.3

  4. MELI: -33.8

  5. OKTA: -34.4

  6. TSLA: -36.1

  7. BL…: -36.2

  8. HUBS: -36.5

  9. ZS…: -37.2

  10. S…: -37.9

  11. UPST: -38.2

Note: If one might consider Cathy Woods ARKK as a sort of barometer on Growth in general: Her score YTD is -46.9%

B) Bottom 10

1.) ASAN: -54.0%

2.) ROKU: -56.0

3.) CFLT: -57.0

4.) GLBE: -57.3

5.) SE…: -60.7

6.) MNDY: -61.4

7.) FUBO: -62.0

8.) SHOP: -62.4

9.) RBLX: -62.8

  1. AMPL: -70.8

BONUS: Biggest Loser: AFRM: -72.0%

So what does all this tell us?

Nothing…nothing at all.

All the Best,

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HI,
So what does all this tell us?

i think saul trying to fall less during downtrend that give comfort end of day feeling like “I fallen less” compare to others. usually ddog gives that feeling but unfortunately it’s also falling same as others.

may be the stock raised lot(story with fundamentals ex:upst, affrm) due to the popularity falling more.
the stocks did not raise during 2020like ayx,ntnx,plan falling less.

my be we get bigger returns at least initial recovery in upst,mndy,ampl.

looks like best strategy in red days be in stocks that fall less and green days be in stocks like upst.

but as you always said it’s lot of work :slight_smile:

thanks,
venu

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Hi Venu:

I took it all in with four potential but totally haphazard pathways:

  1. The companies that have fallen less simply have much further to fall.

  2. Some of the the companies that have fallen the most could have better gains with a recovery.

  3. None of it makes any calculated nor formulaic sense and its all a crapshoot just now.

  4. Maybe it all means something but an investor could’t possibly arrive at any solid conclusions
    without weighing any number of additional metrics.

Note 1: I tend to think better mid-morning after breakfast and a little exercise; although, even then things can be a little jumbled up there.

Note 2: One of my favorite Churchil1 quotes goes something like this: “To ensure a happy marriage its best not to see or speak to your spouse before noon.” Given the maulings the portfolio has taken over the last few weeks I am taking that same attitude with it. Seems reasonable.

All the Best,

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