I recently mentioned in another thread that I didn’t think there was an off-ramp for Putin; that there is no diplomatic settlement he would accept. Then I read this report which follows the nightly Russian news–aka Kremlin propaganda show:
It is a short and insightful read, basically noting the differences in the Kremlin messaging over the past 3 weeks, some good and some bad. The conclusion:
To be sure, these are contradictory signals and messages coming from the Kremlin through the state news broadcasts. They are alternately reassuring and alarming: The optimist might be gratified by mention of peace talks and fewer uses of the term “Nazi”, but the pessimist is right to be alarmed that Putin appears to be more isolated than ever and making decisions on his own — even as he toys with his WMD.
But whether the viewer is an optimist or a pessimist, it is at least clear that things are changing inside the Kremlin, that Putin is anxious, that he’s changing tactics, and he’s preparing his domestic audience for those changes. To figure out whether that means more war or some kind of peace — stay tuned.
Clearly the war is not going according to plan for Russia. The problem today is that total defeat like was inflicted on NAZI Germany and Imperial Japan is too risky an option with a nuclear capable enemy. The alternative for both sides is to let the war wind down in such a way that all sides can save some amount of face.
For the West:
1.- no offensive weapons for Ukraine
2.- defensive weapons to bleed Russia (public and private)
3.- use Ukrainians as cannon fodder
Better than the nuclear alternative.
The Captain
MAD might still be in effect but that does not stop conventional war. Continental scale gerrymandering is a cherished European tradition. The European Union was an attempt to stop the game but Russia was not invited hence it must fail.
A nice thing about democracies is they are a graceful way to ease out someone, and bring in a new guy, who is not married to the previous doctrine, to “clean up the predecessor’s mess”. LBJ could have run again in 68, but backed out gracefully. Even the Soviet regime had a degree of consensus and accountability. Khrushchev and Gorbachev survived being party secretary and retired.
When it’s a dictator setting doctrine, as you say, there is no graceful off-ramp. They tend to end up like Mussolini or Ceausescu.
The folks with a buck of popcorn watching this show, I know I am over trivializing but damn are we all comfortable in comparison, with some sanity are hoping the Russians do their own truly dirty work. That we do not have to end Putin the hard way.
This play has an ending. How bad it is varies between only Putin gets slaughtered or there is WW III.