Prognostication

Well, its cheap anyway.

My guess, reading everything I can get my hands on, Putin has three main goals. (Not that these are worthy, or worth what has been paid, but that they are the goals he had)

One, bring Ukraine into the Russian sphere if influence and keep it there.

Two, related to one, insure Ukraine never ever even thinks about joining NATO.

Three, destroying completely the AZOV battalion and liquidating anyone who supports it.

This third one is likely why the negotiations are moving so slowly. Russia has finally sealed the circle around Maripol and Russian troops have entered the city center. I do not know if there are other core groups that Russia has defined as Nazis (Note: This is Russia’s definition not mine) if there are we should see a pivot toward them within a week. 10 days maximum.

If AZOV battalion was the main Nazi objective and Ukraine already agreeing not to join NATO, then we can expect some significant movement in the negotiations. If there are other major Nazi infestations (Per Putin’s belief) then negotiations will drag on as they are surrounded and liquidated.

The thing to watch for is the Russian propaganda. It is difficult as a lot is hipe directed at Russians and not us. Or what is directed at us is devoid of information.

Cheers
Qazulight

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The thing to watch for is the Russian propaganda. It is difficult as a lot is hype directed at Russians and not us. Or what is directed at us is devoid of information.

Cheers
Qazulight

Another thing to watch for will be the situation of looking after a pressure cooker on high heat, if and when it appears that Vlad has Ukraine, it has been ‘subsumed’.

They, and the rest of Europe, are not going to just roll over, lie down, and die. Their taste of freedom will not be forgotten. Events of 1938 and 1939 are well entrenched in European minds over there.

Vlad must be unplugged. It is imperative. He’s the only one who thinks what he’s doing today is a good idea.

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destroying completely the AZOV battalion and liquidating anyone who supports it.

Even with a door to door purge, that seems exceedingly unlikely in a city that used to have enough structures to house over 400,000 people.

I think it fair to say that AZOV clearly has Nazi affiliations. We don’t need Russian propaganda on that one - their own members lay claim to such - even down to their use of the Wolfsangel to identify their unit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Probably was a mistake on the part of Ukraine to give them free reign in the disputed regions prior to these hostilities.

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The thing to watch for is the Russian propaganda.

I tend to keep a skeptical eye on propaganda issued from the Pentagon, corporate owned media & US government justifying regime change agenda in less powerful nations.

Probably was a mistake on the part of Ukraine to give them free reign in the disputed regions prior to these hostilities.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/16/ukrainians-got-secret-cia-trai…
Ukrainian troops got a crash course in modern guerrilla warfare from the Central Intelligence Agency following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea — training that US officials believe is helping Ukraine hold off the Kremlin now.

CIA paramilitary officers with the Special Activities Division began secretly training Ukrainian forces in sniping, anti-tank warfare and surveillance evasion shortly after the 2014 incursion, Yahoo News reported Wednesday.

https://www.israel365news.com/267404/new-evidence-reveals-ci…
In 2015 Interior Minister Arsen Avakov announced that the Azov Regiment would be among the first units to be trained by United States Army troops in their Operation Fearless Guardian training mission. The six-month training was carried out by paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade Support Battalion and funded under the Congress-approved Global Contingency Security Fund.

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/americas-collusion…
America’s Collusion With Neo-Nazis
The Nation wrote in 2018:
“This did not begin under President Trump but under President George W. Bush, when then Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko’s “Orange Revolution” began rehabilitating Ukraine’s wartime killers of Jews, and it grew under President Obama, who, along with Vice President Joseph Biden, were deeply complicit in the Maidan coup and what followed.
The previous 40-year experience taught that Cold War can corrupt even American democracy—politically, economically, morally.”

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Russian troops have entered the city center.

A commenter located in Greece said that Chechen troops have entered the city center and are “mopping up” hinting mass murder.

The Captain

2 Likes

Another thing to watch for will be the situation of looking after a pressure cooker on high heat, if and when it appears that Vlad has Ukraine, it has been ‘subsumed’.

They, and the rest of Europe, are not going to just roll over, lie down, and die. Their taste of freedom will not be forgotten. Events of 1938 and 1939 are well entrenched in European minds over there.

Vlad must be unplugged. It is imperative. He’s the only one who thinks what he’s doing today is a good idea.

I agree with the first part of your assessment. It is very likely that Ukraine will not see peace and prosperity in our lifetimes. However, Putin is unlikely to occupy Ukraine or any other country long term. Russia has a GDP of 1.6 trillion. It would take 25 percent growth to reach Italy. While it is convenient for leaders to think that subdued territory will be productive and add to wealth, this is generally not the case. (See Iraq war profit and loss statement) Additionally, the Russian economy will shrink this year, by a lot. Worse, over the coming years the oil money will dry up. The oil will not, but the money will.

Finally, Russia has a serious demographic problem. Getting young men killed instead of sending them home to make babies is suicide. Putin will get as far out of Ukraine as he can. Also, and this is probably wild wishful thinking, Zelenskyy may have a lot more freedom to move politically once the AZOV battalion is liquidated. As such a decent partnership with Russia may be possible, especially if Putin decides to retire and take one of his yachts on a world
tour or something.

Cheers
Qazulight

1 Like

A commenter located in Greece said that Chechen troops have entered the city center and are “mopping up” hinting mass murder.

The Captain

God almighty… I get the feeling we’re standing around, mouths agape, like we’re watching a movie. “It’s not really real. It can’t be.”

It needs to stop.

The thing to watch for is the Russian propaganda.
I tend to keep a skeptical eye on propaganda issued from the Pentagon, corporate owned media & US government justifying regime change agenda in less powerful nations.

I do to, but it is useful to listen to the news to see which narrative is sticking.

Cheers
Qazulight

A commenter located in Greece said that Chechen troops have entered the city center and are “mopping up” hinting mass murder.

Captain,

I never expected less than a blood bath. All of the combatants will be killed, the lucky ones will be shot, the unlucky tortured. Many civilians suspected of being supporters of the AZOV battalion will also be tortured or killed or both.

This is what I meant by “liquidated”

Qazulight

Russia has a serious demographic problem. Getting young men killed instead of sending them home to make babies is suicide.

I wonder if Ukrainian demographics is any better than Russia’s?
Also is Putin’s push into the Ukraine partially driven by Russian demographics? Must be done now or not at all?

I wonder if Ukrainian demographics is any better than Russia’s?
Also is Putin’s push into the Ukraine partially driven by Russian demographics? Must be done now or not at all?

If anything, it is worse. It
might even be worse than the graphs as so many young people were economic refugees before the war started.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2019/

Ukraine

https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/

Russia

Cheers
Qazulight

1 Like

I wonder if Ukrainian demographics is any better than Russia’s?

Nope.

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/01/27/what-if-they-had-a-w…
Ukraine is disappearing, for two reasons. It has one of the world’s lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world’s highest rates of out-migration…

Nine million have work abroad, according to the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine, and 3.2 million have full-time jobs in other countries. There are only 21 million Ukrainians between the ages of 20 and 55, which suggests that more than two-fifths of prime working-age Ukrainians earn their living elsewhere. I do not know whether this estimate includes half a million Ukrainian prostitutes working abroad since independence, according to one scholarly estimate…

Remittances from overseas workers already comprise 11% of Ukraine’s GDP, according to the World Bank, by far the highest proportion in Eastern Europe with the exception of tiny Moldova.

DB2

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Russian troops have entered the city center.

A commenter located in Greece said that Chechen troops have entered the city center and are “mopping up” hinting mass murder.

The Captain


In Serbia this is what brought NATO in with the US. While not a direct confrontation with Russia, the US may get into destroying these efforts.

I think Putin wont stop at all. I mean he wont stop at all in Ukraine or in the Baltic states etc....or Poland. I think Putin's mental calculous is everything is an unavoidable conflict with the west.

I think the once highly esteemed Putin in the western press for his calculations is simply willing to mass murder till he is stopped.

I do to, but it is useful to listen to the news to see which narrative is sticking.

You almost got the rec, but:

I do to

Should have been:
too
[to?o]
ADVERB
to a higher degree than is desirable, permissible, or possible; excessively.
“he was driving too fast” · [more]

https://www.bing.com/search?q=too&search=&form=QBLH&…