MDB Beats

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17443397-mongodb-inc-announces-f…

ASC 606:

Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Total Revenue of $85.5 million, up 71% Year-over-Year

Full Year Fiscal 2019 Total Revenue of $267.0 million, up 61% Year-over-Year

MongoDB Atlas Revenue 32% of Total Q4 Revenue, up over 400% Year-over-Year

ASC 605:

Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Total Revenue of $83.1 million, up 85% Year-over-Year

Full Year Fiscal 2019 Total Revenue of $253.8 million, up 64% Year-over-Year

MongoDB Atlas Revenue 34% of Total Q4 Revenue, up over 400% Year-over-Year

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Lovely stuff and up over 10% so far after hours.

WOW!!!

Here’s my favorite part:

MongoDB Atlas Revenue 34% of Total Q4 Revenue, up over 400% Year-over-Year

Where just 3 months ago…

MongoDB Atlas Revenue 22% of Total Q3 Revenue, up over 300% Year-over-Year

Talk about acceleration!!!

Up over 14% after hours…looking forward to tomorrow. :grin:

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Close to 20% up! Missed the boat today with GH (for now), but very happy that MDB delivered again and is my 2nd biggest position.

  • Paul -
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Ittycheria added, “MongoDB Atlas, our fully managed global, multi-cloud database service, achieved a major milestone in the fourth quarter, surpassing $100 million in annualized revenue run rate less than three years from launch. At approximately one third of our revenue, MongoDB Atlas’ tremendous growth highlights its compelling value to enable customers to focus on innovation and offload the operational burden of database management.”

$100M annualized >400% growth rate. Accelerating. Ted Theodore Logan says “whoah!”.

This is where Mongo shrugs their shoulders at Amazon DocumentDB and looks at Open Source in the rear view. Atlas is taking over the world.

Darth

Amazon has had Amazon Elasticsearch for over two years and it’s not slowing them too much either.

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Beautiful quarter - Atlas 400% growth and 1/3 of revenue. They are doing exactly what they need to do.

At my employer, we are just starting to use Mongo in most new projects. We are converting our pilots and promises and little one-offs into real projects, with real revenue that Mongo will recognize - in the next 5 years. At large enterprises, these are slow processes, but once started they are really hard to reverse. Oracle is already going from 100% of our new projects 2 years ago to 50% this year - and I expect that to stabilize around 25% in a few years.

Just to iterate my view, MDB has won the generic NoSql db wars - only they can shoot themselves in the foot. Otherwise they are going to win for 20 years, and that’s how long I’ll be holding.

I have to admit that I’m a bit concerned that even though I have other winners like TTD and TWLO, MDB is growing too much - they are getting close to 50% of my portfolio if they hold this ~20% gain tomorrow. Good problem to have :slight_smile:

If you aren’t in, I think any time is a good time to buy because of the long time horizon. But do expect big drops also. As long as they occur on news - like the Amazon DocumentDB thing, they will probably be great buying opportunities. The only drop I’ll worry about is one based on a reduction in revenue growth, not related to over all tech spend.

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Well, here is hoping MDB’s rise raises our other stocks.

I have no MDB. . . .

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Very impressive top line growth.

The 71% or 85% revenue growth, depending on if you are using the asc 606 or 605 number, is somewhat misleading.

The gross margin slipped by 5%.

I’m guessing as more of their business is Atlas:

*charge more for managing the cloud database service, increasing revenue
*have to pay for the cloud database service and management costs, decreasing gross margins

net result was a 58% growth in gross profit, still great, about what they have been growing.

Should get more detail on the conference call.

Jim

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Thanks SteppenWulf for bringing this stock to the board. Your boots on the ground analysis is priceless.
MDB is my largest position and although I contemplated top slicing some shares given the market’s recent reaction to even good earnings reports, I am glad I didn’t. Looking forward to more of your updates and holding MDB for years to come.

Rob

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NAt my employer, we are just starting to use Mongo in most new projects. We are converting our pilots and promises and little one-offs into real projects, with real revenue that Mongo will recognize - in the next 5 years. At large enterprises, these are slow processes, but once started they are really hard to reverse. Oracle is already going from 100% of our new projects 2 years ago to 50% this year - and I expect that to stabilize around 25% in a few years.

I figured I’d add just another random data point since I’ve talked in the past about my market observations regarding Mongo and MongoDB. I find it of special interest because SteppenWulf and I seem to live in similar worlds (leading edge appdev, with a good bit of fintech), but we still seem to have very different observations. (For example, our set of posts where he was seeing containers as a fading technology that had failed to live up the hype, but I was seeing containers/Kubernetes just exploding in popularity.) I don’t chalk this up to either of us being right or wrong, just having a very different sample of customers we are observing.

In my little corner of the world, MongoDB is still non-existent. Cassandra still is leading in my world as far as NoSQL style databases, with a surprisingly large minority of Couchbase. But I’d say the actual majority are people trying other non-traditional “databases” like Elastic Search, Kafka/KSQL, Neo4J, and various flavors of HDFS. But despite that statement, I’m starting to believe the hype around Mongo market momentum. None of my projects have considered MongoDB, but I am starting to see it being considered in other parts of my customer’s organziations. To me, it sort of feels like the real bleeding edge people don’t think highly of MongoDB, but the corporate types are starting to think of it as the most manageable and general purpose of the NoSQL world. (In my world, everyone wants to use Cassandra, but it seems equally true that no one actually wants to be responsible for operating Cassandra. I’ve been asked “do you know a good hosted Cassandra service” a lot. It goes to show you how interesting Atlas is as a business model.)

I find it interesting that Steppenwulf says that 50% of his new projects are still Oracle. I haven’t seen a new Oracle project in a really long time. Five years? Even the people I know with a lot of Oracle middleware are moving as much stuff to open source databases as they can. I still see Oracle a lot, there are lots of databases we integrate to that are old Oracle databases. And I spend a good bit of time replacing/augmenting Oracle systems. But new systems? 0% Oracle. Every new project is either open source SQL like Postgres, NoSQL, or something entirely different.

In any case, this was just one more observation since I know a number of you aren’t in tech.

I still think those declaring victory for Mongo are ahead of themselves: I see a lot of fragmentation in the market, especially if you consider non-traditional databases. But I’m starting to be convinced that Mongo has a lot of momentum in the enterprise space.

–CH

P.S.
Just as a disclaimer/reminder:

  • I’ve used MongoDB professionally (at a previous job), although I’m more of an developer-type than DBA-type
  • I like MongoDB in general, although I don’t think it’s ideal for all circumstances.
  • I have no position in MDB at the moment, long or short.
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Thanks Conehead.
As a non-tech guy I like to hear all opinions. Because MDB is my largest position, I welcome all input from you in the field. For now, I’ll follow the money, and watch closely for any slowing in growth.

Rob

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Thanks for the great post Conehead, yours and others in industry are much appreciated!

From the CC-

Continuation of strong developer adoption in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019. The total number of MongoDB downloads from our website alone is now more than 60 million.

We have seen adoption accelerate with more than 20 million downloads in the last 12 months, an increase from the more than 12 million downloads in fiscal year 2018.

Nearly 1.2 million developers have registered for MongoDB University, the company’s online training and certification program.

This is painting a picture of mass adoption don’t you think? Not to mention the overall great qtr they had. I know it’s still in the early stages but so far it looks very promising!

It would be very interesting to see a discussion where you SW, Mugi’s and anyone else with that inside knowledge about this topic.

Chris.

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* I like MongoDB in general, although I don’t think it’s ideal for all circumstances.

That would be too much to expect of any product. The relevant issue is whether MongoDB is or not the leading NoSQL database out there.

MDB has become my largest high tech position by almost doubling in four months.

Denny Schlesinger

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great to see MDB delivers… again…
against all FUD and nay-sayers…

Saul - still there is time to get back on to this rocket!

@Conehead - I agree it is great to get multiple views. From my perspective, it seems like you are more on the bleeding edge, while I’m on the “leading edge of large enterprise”.

When I say 50% of new projects are on Oracle, I mean both Oracle and MySql which Oracle owns, and which we have support contracts for.

The 50% Oracle is so high because there are an awful lot of dinosaur groups at the bank, that won’t be off SQL until forced to be, which is why I expect the long term percentage to be 25% Oracle, 75% Mongo for new projects in the next few years. In my groups, which are FinTech and Innovation Lab, we are around to 90% Mongo this year. That is amazing since it has taken us 3 years to go from POC and small one-off projects with exceptional approval to real standardized procurement and compliance approval for Mongo for major projects. We’re no longer aspiring to 40% - we are hitting over 80%

Now that Mongo is a standardized product with procurement and compliance support, we’ll also start seeing migration of old Oracle data stores to Mongo, from time to time, as app need to be upgraded, which will also be a mover of revenue from Oracle to Mongo.

On to another point, there is still no interest in containers at my bank, but I see a number of competitors experimenting or standardizing on containers. Again, from my point of view, we are well past the peak in terms of the hype cycle, but I could easily see containers take over the microservices space - but I know just as many people who hate them as love them. I am looking forward to how that works out with Pivotal this evening. I still think they have are the big dog in the PAAS cloud tools space, but they need to get to the mid-market, and I’ve been disappointed in their sales effort in the last couple of earnings calls. As far as I can see, they are doing fine in the container space - not a clear winner in containers yet, but my colleagues using containers are using PKS and like it - not sure how that translates into the broader market.

Looking for a blowout from PVTL!

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I’ve used MongoDB professionally (at a previous job), although I’m more of an developer-type than DBA-type

Cone:

Did you use the AICD 4.0 or later version or prior versions?

What do you attribute the Cassandra predominance you are seeing…force of habit by user groups or is there some reason that database managers feel it is superior to Mongo and why?

If it is the former…this would suggest, in time and with more marketing, Mongo can still win the hearts of the more pragmatic consumer.

Also, what are the typical use cases your teams would work on? Does the AICD open up the optionality more? Unfortunately, MDB did not specifically address the demand side for AICD itself…which appears to be a pretty sizable moat to get across for other non-SQL databases from a competitive advantage perspective.

Thanks in advance.

Duma

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Cone:

Did you use the AICD 4.0 or later version or prior versions?

You mean version MongoDB 4.0 and multi-document transactions (aka ACID, although I dislike that term here because it’s vague about which parts are ACID)?

When I worked with MongoDB professionally at my last job, I was using MongoDB 3.x (3.2 IIRC). So, I obviously didn’t use multi-document transactions. Would we have used the feature if it had been available? Probably not. I generally feel that you should avoid them if you at all can. When you are using multi-document transactions it probably means you are using MongoDB in a way you shouldn’t. It’s good that MongoDB has that feature, because there’s an exception to every rule, but I imagine that 90% of the time people are using multi-document transactions because they haven’t unlearned enough Oracle yet.

For what I’m doing now, as I mention later in this post, we have very simple access patterns. We want raw speed and don’t care about transactions, document APIs, or anything fancy. The top ten features we care about are speed, speed, speed, speed, speed, speed, speed, speed, uptime (aka reliable speed), and manageability (aka predictable speed). Transactions are not conducive to speed or predictability.

What do you attribute the Cassandra predominance you are seeing…force of habit by user groups or is there some reason that database managers feel it is superior to Mongo and why?

Several factors.

  • Lack of a good fit for documents. Most of what we are doing is very simple stuff. What is often referred to as key/value lookups. While MongoDB can do this too, it does mean that a lot of the interesting flexibility of MongoDB’s document oriented model is wasted. (As opposed to my last job, where the flexibility of the document model was the main reason MongoDB was chosen.)

  • Raw speed. For the access patterns I’m talking about Cassandra was tested to be much faster than MongoDB. Sure, some of this might have changed over time with new product versions, but these kinds of things tend to live on in folklore and our experts placed their bets on Cassandra. People’s arms were twisted into using Couchbase because of corporate relationships, and the performance testing has been quite good there too so people are fine with it.

  • Momentum. You can call this “force of habit” if you like, but it has a real impact. If you use Cassandra in my world, there is lots of supported software, lots of expertise, and lots of documentation. The MongoDB related software does exist, but it’s less supported, there aren’t nearly as many people you can go to for help, and there are some limitations just because “the road is less paved”.

Also, what are the typical use cases your teams would work on?

I don’t want to talk too much more about it, as I like to be pseudo-anonymous on TMF. There are too many opinions I share here when talking about stocks that I’d want to be officially professionally neutral about when talking technology to a client.

But, in general, high end stuff. I recognize that my views are somewhat skewed because of that.

If it is the [force of habit]…this would suggest, in time and with more marketing, Mongo can still win the hearts of the more pragmatic consumer.

So now we enter the area of pure speculation. In my heart of hearts, I’m a little skeptical that:

  • Cassandra is really that much faster.
  • Even if it is, that everyone really needs that absolute fastest performance.

For us, I don’t think it’s really “marketing” that will win the day for Mongo. But will someone come along and say “our corporate direction is Mongo, either make it work with Mongo or we’ll take our million dollars elsewhere”? I’m thinking probably yes, if Mongo’s momentum continues, at some point someone will say this to us. (Similar to what happened for us with Couchbase.) And then we will really get to see whether the performance difference is real or folklore.

Does the AICD open up the optionality more?

Nope. As an end user I’m much more excited about Atlas than any of the features in 4.0. As mentioned in my earlier post, it seems a significant portion of my clients would like to stop worrying about database management. And, unlike a lot of other things, the interfaces to a database are well defined enough that I think the SLAs would work.

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When you are using multi-document transactions it probably means you are using MongoDB in a way you shouldn’t. It’s good that MongoDB has that feature, because there’s an exception to every rule, but I imagine that 90% of the time people are using multi-document transactions because they haven’t unlearned enough Oracle yet.

Does the AICD open up the optionality more?

Nope.

That is a little disappointing because they spent around 3 years and $millions pulling off that engineering feat.

Their stated objective being that there shouldn’t be practically any use case that 4.0 ACID could not handle inclusive of many relational database needs.

The corollary is that the higher hanging fruit of converting legacy databases to MongoDB would be an evolution based on a company’s needs to update.

So from your perspective, are we all stuck with the legacy ORCL database for another 40 years? If not, then what replaces it if not a MongoDB like product?

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So now we enter the area of pure speculation. In my heart of hearts, I’m a little skeptical that:

* Cassandra is really that much faster.
* Even if it is, that everyone really needs that absolute fastest performance.

This may be a nit on an investing board, but “Cassandra is really that much faster” is certain cases. There are benchmark comparisons available. E.G. "https://www.datastax.com/nosql-databases/benchmarks-cassandr…

Update speed is a use case that favors Cassandra. This is fundamental to the “eventually consistent” architecture. You are correct, not everybody needs that speed. I’ve used Cassandra and can attest that updates are insanely fast.

Long MDB - still a big believer in Atlas.

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Sometimes getting into the technical weeds chokes your investment perspective. Do the Casandera capabilities pass the “so what test”? I did it on PVTL, was not a pleasant experience.