Mexico Declares Recession…

Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is defined as a recession. Mexico down due to parts shortages (such as semiconductors), and probably shutdowns due to Covid. Reduced travel? People not flying? Higher energy costs.


I live in Guanajuato State, which is a pretty good proxy for all of Mexico – mining, tourism, by some measures biggest auto and related (mostly electronic and specialized mechanisms) manufacturing center across all international brands operating in the Americas, and also big agriculture for export (you eaten any broccoli recently?).

We are DEFINITELY in something like depression/recession, but more severe as to un- and under- employment than as to household income. The first response to the pandemic and layoff was do it yourself construction and remodeling on their very small homes. The second and later response in my local pueblo to endless covid sickness and deaths and business shut downs was the migration of about half of all the more intelligent, disciplined, and ethical men aged 16 - 30 to the USA to take illegal jobs.

They are now sending money home – first to pay of the (usually long time familiar coyotes or loans taken out to pay coyotes in advance) then second and eternally to Madre or any of the smarter and tougher aunties and grandmothers. If married or a father they send a separate bundle to wife or mom of child or mother’s mother. I lack the social skills, but I expect it would be easy to discover the expected money to be sent home for any given man (and a few women) who have gone al Norte.

David fb