Mexico Declares Recession…

Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is defined as a recession. Mexico down due to parts shortages (such as semiconductors), and probably shutdowns due to Covid. Reduced travel? People not flying? Higher energy costs.


I live in Guanajuato State, which is a pretty good proxy for all of Mexico – mining, tourism, by some measures biggest auto and related (mostly electronic and specialized mechanisms) manufacturing center across all international brands operating in the Americas, and also big agriculture for export (you eaten any broccoli recently?).

We are DEFINITELY in something like depression/recession, but more severe as to un- and under- employment than as to household income. The first response to the pandemic and layoff was do it yourself construction and remodeling on their very small homes. The second and later response in my local pueblo to endless covid sickness and deaths and business shut downs was the migration of about half of all the more intelligent, disciplined, and ethical men aged 16 - 30 to the USA to take illegal jobs.

They are now sending money home – first to pay of the (usually long time familiar coyotes or loans taken out to pay coyotes in advance) then second and eternally to Madre or any of the smarter and tougher aunties and grandmothers. If married or a father they send a separate bundle to wife or mom of child or mother’s mother. I lack the social skills, but I expect it would be easy to discover the expected money to be sent home for any given man (and a few women) who have gone al Norte.

David fb

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Anywhere near you?


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The Shiny media has been playing up the violence in Mexico, ever since the vanload on it’s way for cosmetic surgery was kidnapped a month or two back. Think that might impact tourism?

Of course, people get shot up in Shiny-land every day. There were four shootings in Detroit Saturday, including one fatality from an argument over a place in line at a liquor store. But shootings here are “freeedom”.



It’s not just that people get shot up every day. We are averaging MORE than one mass shooting per day. (4 or more injured or killed.) As of a few days ago, more than 140 incidents so far this year. Today (April 17) is day 107 of the year.

Pointing at gun violence problems in other countries is just an attempt to avoid dealing with our own gun violence problem.


Hi Bob.

Not near where i live, but Cortazar is a suburb of Celaya, long one of the most corrupt and dangerous areas of Guanajuato. I have to go to Celaya every few months because it is where my HIV clinic is. When i go there I do my medical stuff and visit the Costco with eyes wide open and ready to hide. No problems over the last 5 years. Truth is, visiting there reminds me of what it was like visiting friends in various USAian cities back in the 60s and 70s where I learned how to do it.

The gangs are a terrifying problem. An even bigger problem is the instability of the politics around both the dying “dinosaur” political parties and the reformist party of the current egomaniacal president who wants to unconstitutionaly extend his term of office.


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