After copious minutes of grueling, detailed research, I have concluded that mitigating risk is a very tricky thing; all the while, discovering some factors that do in fact help to some degree. BUT…You cannot eliminate all risk, particularly in a concentrated portfolio. Having said, here is what my grueling and detailed minutes of the research into Risk Mitigation show:
- Don’t Invest More Than You Can Afford to Lose
This seems so obvious that it goes without saying. Then…why say it here? Well because a fairly large percentage of investors do invest more than they can afford to lose and in a high percentage of the time it’s done through Margin.
- Stay On The Path
If you don’t have an investing plan - then take the time to think one up: thereafter, stay on the plan path. Again - this is simple stuff but straying off the path often leads to disaster.
- Don’t Wander Off Alone
We all do it. We search for investments and sometimes find ones that are off the general highways and byways of the land. One could argue that one of the things that made the Fool so successful was that it created a place to travel in groups. Traveling in groups is safer.
4). Make Noise Along the Way
It’s a verifiable, proven fact that making noise is a proven mitigator of risk. Participating frequently along the way helps: don’t be afraid to state your opinions - or - politely and in good faith as a fair broker question the opinions of others.
- Stay Alert
What this means is that it’s a must to review Quarterly reports, News and Press Releases from your investments. Keep your eyes open and note the terrain and vegetation around you. Simple as that.
- Don’t Rundoff - First You Better Think
Think before you act. Just because folks are screaming that the sky is falling doesn’t necessarily mean it’s so. Look at it this way:
You can read one such study your very own self here:
It’s all there for those who have ears…well…eyes to read I suppose.
Despite all the potential for Bear/Human conflict in Yellowstone there have only been 8 recorded Fatalities from Bear attacks in Yellowstone National Park.
Common Characteristics of Fatal Bear Attacks:
- Geographic location.
All 8 fatalities occurred in just
3 geographic areas of the park. Four of the fa-
talities occurred within or near Hayden Valley,
2 within or near Pelican Valley, and 2 within or
near the Old Faithful development complex.
- Time of Year
All 8 fatalities occurred from
June to October, with 3 occurring in August.
August is a period when bears are hyperphagic
and increase diurnal activity as they intensify
their search for food to gain weight for hiberna-
tion
- Time of Day
Most attacks that occur at night
are likely motivated by bears seeking access to
human foods or are predatory (Herrero 1989,
2002). Half of the fatal bear attacks in YNP
occurred in late evening/early morning time
periods (2200–0500 hours), and half occurred
during the day.
- Gender of People Killed by Bears
Six of the 8
people killed by bears in YNP were adult men
and 2 were adult women. The data from YNP
are consistent with those of Smith and Herrero
(2018), who reported that in Alaska, USA, bears
attacked adult men considerably more often
than women, and children comprised only a
small proportion of attacks.
- Group Size of People Killed by Bears
Of the 8
people killed by bears in both front country
and backcountry areas combined, 5 were alone
when attacked, 2 were in parties of 2 people,
and 1 incident involved a party of 3. The av-
erage group size for all bear-caused fatalities
combined was 1.5 (±0.8 SD) people per party.
The average group size for the 6 fatalities that
occurred in backcountry areas was 1.3 (±0.5 SD)
No groups larger than 3 people had a member
killed by a bear in the park.
- Fatal Attacks in On-Trail vs Off-Trail areas
The danger of surprise encounters with grizzly
bears decreases if bears know where to expect
people (Herrero 2002). Because most hikers
in YNP stay on designated trails (Coleman et
al. 2013), bears are less likely to anticipate en-
counters with people who are traveling off-trail
and, therefore, more likely to react with defen-
sive aggression to off-trail encounters
In a survey of backcoun-
try recreationists in YNP, off-trail travelers
observed grizzlies 3–4 times more frequently
than on-trail travelers
- Use of Bear Spray
Bear spray has proven effective
at stopping aggressive behavior by bears during
surprise encounters and in reducing the length
and severity of attacks when they occur
- Circumstances of Attacks
Of the 8 fatal bear
attacks, 3 involved surprise encounters, 1 in-
volved a bear seeking human foods, and 1 ap-
peared predatory (Table 2). In 3 incidents there
were no witnesses, and available evidence did not
allow the exact cause of attack to be determined.
Seeking human foods was ruled out in those 3 in-
cidents. In 2 of the fatal surprise encounters, the
bears involved were known to be conditioned
to human foods, which likely contributed to the
proximity and possibly the outcome of those
encounters. In 1 of the 3 incidents where the pri-
mary cause of the attack could not be determined,
the bear may have been provoked by the victim, a
photographer who may have approached within
the bear’s defensible personal space for a photo-
graph and/or mimicked elk (Cervus canadensis)
vocalizations to get the bear’s attention. Imitating
the sounds of prey may attract bears and cause
attack.
- Role of Food-Conditioned Behavior
Bears conditioned to human foods or
garbage are often involved in fatal attacks in
424 Human–Wildlife Interactions 16(3)
national parks (Herrero 1970a, 1970b, 1976,
1989; Gniadek and Kendall 1998; Herrero and
Higgins 2003). In 3 of 8 fatalities, the bears had
known histories of feeding on human food or
garbage. However, attempting to obtain human
foods was considered the primary motivation
in only 1 of those 3 attacks and a secondary fac-
tor in 2 incidents. In 5 fatalities, the bears in-
volved were not known to be conditioned to
human foods (NPS 1984, 1986; Frey et al. 2011,
2012; Wilmot et al. 2016). The first 3 fatal bear
attacks in YNP (the 1916, 1942, and 1972 inci-
dents) all involved bears that were conditioned
to anthropogenic foods, which likely contribut-
ed to the circumstances and outcomes of those
fatal encounters.
…
- Frequency and Risk of Fatal Bear Attacks
During the 147-year period from 1872 to
2018, there were 183,464,899 recreational vis-
its to YNP, and 7 people were killed by grizzly
bears (~1 fatality every 21 years). Therefore, the
per capita risk of being killed by a grizzly bear
was 1 fatality for every 26,209,271 visits
Note: There is an additional victim whereby authorities could not determine conclusively that the cause of death - despite high probability; was due to a bear attack.
There were no known black bear-caused hu-
man fatalities in YNP from 1872 to 2018.
In com-
bination, all these studies indicate that regard-
less of frequent opportunity, and despite their
ferocious reputations, bears, grizzly or black,
rarely kill people.
The risk of fatal grizzly bear attack was not
equal between different types of recreational
activities (hiking or camping) and broadscale
geographic regions (front country or back-
country) of the park. For visitors frequenting
front country areas (developments and road
corridors) from 1872 to 2018, there was 1 bear-
caused fatality for every 91,732,450 visits. No
visitors were killed by bears in >37,664,417
overnight stays in designated roadside camp-
grounds from 1930 to 2018. From 1972 to 2018,
permitted visitors recorded 1,975,917 overnight
stays in backcountry campsites and dispersed
camping zones, and 1 permitted visitor was
killed while in their campsite. The risk of fatal
grizzly bear attack for recreationists camping
in designated backcountry campsites or dis-
persed camping zones was 1 fatality for every
1,975,917 overnight stays. One person camping
illegally without a permit was also killed by a
grizzly. From 1992 to 2018, park visitors spent
an estimated 6,394,944 recreation days hiking
in backcountry bear habitat in the park, and 3
backcountry recreationists were killed by griz-
zlies while hiking during that time period. The
risk of fatal grizzly bear attack for backcountry
recreationists traveling on foot was 1 fatality for
every 2,131,648 backcountry recreation days.
Another method to measure the risk of fatal
bear attack is the number of bear encounters
that occur per fatality. From 1991 to 2018, 1,851
encounters between backcountry recreationists
and grizzly bears were recorded, and 3 people
were killed by grizzlies during that period for
a calculated fatality rate of 1 fatality per 617
reported grizzly bear encounters. I believe that
estimate is biased high because incidents re-
sulting in fatalities are much more likely to be
reported or discovered than non-injurious or
benign encounters.
Comparing the number of people killed by
grizzly bears in YNP to the number of people
dying in the park from other causes provides
perspective on the risk of fatal bear attack.
During the 147-year period from 1872 to 2018,
7 people were killed by grizzly bears inside
YNP. During the same time period, 121 people
in YNP died by drowning, 39 by falling off of
cliffs, 26 by suicide, 22 in airplane crashes, 21
from thermal burns (after falling into boiling
thermal pools), and 19 in horse-related acci-
dents
- Trends In Fatal Bear Attacks
Although fatal bear attacks in YNP are rare,
there has been an increase in the frequency in
recent years, with 3 (all by grizzly bears) oc-
curring in the 8-year period from 2011 to 2018,
whereas there had been only 5 fatal bear attacks
(4 grizzlies, 1 unknown species) in YNP during
the previous 139 years (1872 to 2010).
- Management Responses to Fatal Bear Attacks
When bears in YNP injure or kill someone
without consuming the body, after reacting with
typical defensive aggression during surprise en-
counters, park managers generally do not take
any action against the bear. However, in inci-
dents where bears both kill and consume people,
even in defensive reactions to surprise encoun-
ters, YNP managers generally kill the bears in-
volved (White 2016). Park managers killed the
bears responsible for 5 of the 8 fatalities that oc-
curred in YNP. In 1 additional incident, the bear
would have been killed, but capture attempts
were not successful. The objective of killing
bears involved in the killing and consumption
of people is not for punishment or retribution; it
is to prevent them from killing and consuming
other park visitors in the future.
All the Best,
BDH Investing