Newbie to Saul’s world, ditto the gratitude and compliments given by others for the guidance, knowledge, oft humor, and especially the camaraderie of the participants and posters. I feel a new rejuvenation to the arc of my investments…
From past post reading, I know many of you will await a lockup period expiration for IPO stocks as the price often drops with insiders are finally able to cash out. Could someone enlighten me as to the mechanics of their executing on this, perhaps specifically in relation to MongoDB?
Jack
From past post reading, I know many of you will await a lockup period expiration for IPO stocks as the price often drops with insiders are finally able to cash out. Could someone enlighten me as to the mechanics of their executing on this, perhaps specifically in relation to MongoDB?
Jack
There is no telling what insiders will do. The price drop is pure speculation. If they sell, and they will sell some shares, it all depends on how fast they sell. I don’t expect them to drop huge numbers of shares on the market as that would depress the price for them. More likely is an orderly selling of just enough shares that the market can absorb without crashing the price.
Currently the average daily volume is 380,000 shares. Insiders have around 39 million shares. They could liquidate their holding over four years by selling 38,000 shares daily
4 years * 250 trading days * 38,000 = 38,000,000
Institutions hold 95.75% of the float which leads me to believe that there is a market for the insider shares
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mdb/institutional-holdings
Denny Schlesinger
5 Likes
Jack,
Here are some thoughts I offered regarding this: http://discussion.fool.com/share-lockup-periods-mongodb-33034550…
You’ll see I’m not an expert on this. I think it makes sense to wait until things settle after the lockup period expires, at least before taking anything more than a “starter” position, at least for me. (Did I add enough qualifiers there? Ha)
Bear
Insides are sell some of their shares,
Volume today, at noon, is over 2.5 million. As mentioned, average daily volume is 380,000.
Price down about 2%.
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Seems like the market is absorbing this volume at a slight 2% discount.
A good sign.
Freddy
1 Like
As I just commented on NPI, this is not an ordinary expiration day. more than 10x normal volume. These are insiders running out the door.
Lets see where it goes and what we have when things settle out some more. Does not give one confidence however since it appears insiders are running out far faster than is the normal way of these expiration events.
This said, the star price has not collapsed despite the volume.
I did sell at my Mongo and bought back NVDA with a nice non-taxable profit in that I was able to acquire more NVDA shares than I had sold. I just could not hold a stock like Mongo when a company like NVDA was under FUD attacks. Appears that being sensible does pay.
We shall see where Mongo goes and reassess. One thing we do know is that Mongo appears to be by far the predominant NoSQL database. Mongo also, on the other hand, is very nascent in not just product but also business model. Much less mature than most companies going public. Thus, perhaps, why insiders are running out.
Tinker
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We shall see where Mongo goes and reassess. One thing we do know is that Mongo appears to be by far the predominant NoSQL database. Mongo also, on the other hand, is very nascent in not just product but also business model. Much less mature than most companies going public. Thus, perhaps, why insiders are running out.
Tinker
Do we interperate this as young employee investors who are $20,000 invested cashing out at $200,000 or people $20,000 invested getting out at $38,000? One is running away the other is overwhelmed by success?
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