Putin mulls recognizing separatist eastern Ukrainian regions as independent
Russian President Vladimir Putin convened top officials Monday to consider recognizing the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West.
The publicly staged, pre-recorded meeting of the presidential Security Council came amid a spike in skirmishes in eastern Ukraine that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on Ukraine.
Recognize the provinces as an independent country, sign a mutual defense pact, move in the Russian army to âprotect against foreign aggressionâ, and cast Ukraine as the instigator if it fights back. Then declare âMission accomplishedâ.
Would the west trigger sanctions in the absence of a full invasion and overthrow of Ukraine? I think not.
Would the west trigger sanctions in the absence of a full invasion and overthrow of Ukraine? I think not.
The Russians had a claim that was legit on Crimea. It was Putinâs authoritarian long term stance that triggered Obama/Bidenâs and the westâs sanctions.
This would trigger sanctions. I think they will be full blown.
There is a calculous the west is making over energy for Europe and facing off with authoritarian regimes. Very much like the cold war, but against the rise of fascism. This wont be let go. In the Congress members to the right will demand sanctions. Members to the left will demand them equally. Western capitals will toe a very strong line. Even Berlin is very much recalculating.
None of them are naive enough to believe Putin stops there. Or stops with the Ukraine.
It is not exactly that Putin is mentally ill. That would be unfair to say because people suffer generally with mental illness and should not be stigmatized. Putin has a problem he is expressing. It is a demeaning of human life and his worth. But truthfully the best category for Putin is criminal. He has no relationship with reasonable management of a government.
Putinâs statement last night snippet from the NYT.
His phone calls with the German and French leaders came after an extraordinary session of the Russian Security Council at which Mr. Putin accused the United States and its allies of using Ukraine âas an instrument of confrontationâ with Russia. He said it posed âa serious, very big threat to us.â
I totally agree with Putin. We are in the west looking for an end to Putin. Not an end to Russia, there is no âusâ in this.
We are aggressively challenging the runt. And we should more aggressively challenge him rule.
The toughest thing we can do is turn off the dollar exchange with Russian banks and if need be their intermediatory banks.
Frankly we want to cut off China as well. Piece by piece we will be.
Just rereading the above, it took Putin a while but he did figure it out. LOL
<Would the west trigger sanctions in the absence of a full invasion and overthrow of Ukraine? I think not.>
There are a lot of moving pieces in this puzzle so itâs hard to say.
If Russia takes Crimea and the Donbas region, are they likely to stop? Or would this be a springboard for eating Ukraine a little at a time? Russia can afford to be patient. A large part of its army has been moved west since China and Russia signed a historic cooperation pact a few weeks ago so Russia doesnât have to defend its eastern flank.
Putin is not stupid or insane. He is acting rationally from the point of view of many historical empire-builders who âunifiedâ independent regions by force to build a large empire. Step by step, Putin wants to rebuild the USSR and its sphere of infuence. That sphere includes several NATO members. He already asked for NATO to be rolled back to its 1997 borders. https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukrainâŚ
The Europeans are far more sensitive to the dangers of blitzkrieg than the U.S. Plenty of living witnesses survive who experienced the invasion of smaller countries by Hitlerâs forces. There is a tug of war between appeasers (who want cheap energy prices and peace) and defenders (who are willing to impose harsh sanctions and even war if Putin invades NATO).
True to his Soviet background, Putin already has a list of Ukranians to be removed (permanently, in the Russian style). A repeat of the 2014 anti-Russian demonstrations in Kyiv would be met with lethal force, not with cops armed with clubs. Stalin said, âDeath solves all problems. No man, no problem.â I believe that Putin is playing a careful game but, at heart, he is just as ruthless as Stalin. But Putin is a kleptocrat, not an ideologue.
I donât know whether the west would impose sanctions if Russia was invited to âprotectâ the âindependentâ Donbas region. Thatâs why Putin is likely to do it. Driving a wedge in NATO.
Putin is not stupid or insane. He is acting rationally from the point of view of many historical empire-builders who âunifiedâ independent regions by force to build a large empire. Step by step, Putin wants to rebuild the USSR and its sphere of infuence. That sphere includes several NATO members. He already asked for NATO to be rolled back to its 1997 borders.
Wendy,
Plenty of people would agree with you.
I do not.
The definition of insanity is doing the wrong thing over and over again and not learning from it. It is also the definition of stupid.
The democracies have moved on. We live in a higher order of human organization. Far from prefect but many magnitudes away from the stupidity we are seeing Putin unfurl.
Lady's bet Putin loses his life eventually in the process?
Lady's, gentleman's bet.
Putin mulls recognizing separatist eastern Ukrainian regions as independent
Russian President Vladimir Putin convened top officials Monday to consider recognizing the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West.
If this is what transpires, I think it would instructive if all the signing of the agreements take place in the same room, in the same building, in Munich where Chamberlain agreed to carve up Czechoslovakia, and secured âpeace for our timeâ a mere 84 years ago.
Whoever signs for the west, they need to carry a black umbrella, the ultimate defensive tool.
Image would be complete if they can just find a DC-3 that carries the umbrella carrier back to his home base and shows him/her deplaning.
Would the west trigger sanctions in the absence of a full invasion and overthrow of Ukraine? I think not.
I also think not, but I think âthe westâ ought to trigger full everything unless the Russian ârecognitionâ of the eastern separatist provinces is not merely a military police occupation, and includes a process for internationally supervised plebiscites.
Russia most likely would not accept anything like that, even though they would have a reasonable chance of winning, as they want this to be the beginning of a zipper movement that gives them much more Black Sea coastline.
why Putin is likely to do it. Driving a wedge in NATO
All of the troop movements etc has been classic Political Theater to make as many people in NATO and Ukraine and etc feel deeply relieved that the bear only wants to eat a couple of provinces. The cost has been quite low as troops need to be exercised anyways, and so may as well make the exercises involve turning the troops into âextrasâ for the show Putin has been putting on.
(US) responds with sanctions after Putin recognizes breakaway Ukraine regions
The White House said Biden would soon issue an executive order âthat will prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or inâ the two Ukrainian regions under the control of Russian-backed separatists, Donetsk and Luhansk.
The order âwill also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine,â White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. She added that the U.S. âwill also soon announce additional measures related to todayâs blatant violation of Russiaâs international commitments.â
âTo be clear: these measures are separate from and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with Allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine,â Psaki said.
Extremely limited wrist slap for taking another slice out of Ukraine. The rope sellers will say âUkraine has not had effective control over those provinces for eight years, so Putin is just recognizing the facts on the groundâ.
Putin can declare âmission accomplishedâ, puffing himself up, telling his citizens he put one over on the west, then pull back and wait until the US has a more pliable leader that canât, or wonât, pull together a untied front against Putinâs ambitions.
As others have suggested, Ukraine is being fitted up with a Czechoslovakia suit.
Russia most likely would not accept anything like that, even though they would have a reasonable chance of winning, as they want this to be the beginning of a zipper movement that gives them much more Black Sea coastline.
david fb
The Black Sea. Iâve looked at that. And, via time lapse YouTubes, transited the two very narrow passages from the Black Sea to the Med, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.
Incredibly cramped, and making any ships sailing the narrow channels sitting ducks to offensive forces. I would never consider sailing a heavy man of war thru the tight squeeze(s).
The Black Sea does give Russia good free access to the countries lining its shores, but little else.
(They do have a key naval base at Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, FWIW.)
Those two observations would be a useful reason why Putin was so keen on getting a dedicated port for Ruskiesâ ships in the coast of Syria.
The Black Sea does give Russia good free access to the countries lining its shores, but little else.
Besides a promise to never admit Ukraine to NATO, Putin was also demanding that NATO pull out of Romania and Bulgaria. Romania and Bulgaria occupy the Black Sea coast from Ukraine to Turkey.
Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.
Whoever signs for the west, they need to carry a black umbrella, the ultimate defensive tool.
Image would be complete if they can just find a DC-3 that carries the umbrella carrier back to his home base and shows him/her deplaning.
Well, if we are going to do it up right, the actor doing Chamberlain will have to wave the BOAC airline ticket to go meet with Herr Hitler? Of course the aircraft wasnât a DC-3 though I suppose it could have been as they were being produced at the time.
Chamberlainâs Munich plane ticket which he used to secure âpeace in our timeâ a year before Second World War began is up for auction
Wartime Prime Minister waved the ticket before boarding a plane to Munich Is expected to be sold for ÂŁ15,000 by London auction house Spink and Son Travelled to Germany on September 29, 1938, for a meeting with Adolf Hitler Held crisis talks with the Fuhrer following their invasion of Czechoslovakia Fearing war, Chamberlain agreed to the occupation in return for peace A year later he was forced to announce that Britain was at war By WILLS ROBINSON
PUBLISHED: 12:38 EST, 4 July 2014 | UPDATED: 14:21 EST, 4 July 2014
Of interest only to me I suppose but my first logged flights as aircrew were on Dakotaâs flying from Winterpeg during basic aircrew Radar navigation training. There was no cabin heat until the engines got turned on so they issued us old RN/RCN bomber suits of the type worn by aircrew who flew in open cockpits looking for subs or the Bismarck).
The Europeans are far more sensitive to the dangers of blitzkrieg than the U.S. Plenty of living witnesses survive who experienced the invasion of smaller countries by Hitlerâs forces.
That is true for the Western Front countries, but it is not true for the Eastern Front countries who suffered much more from Stalin than Hitler (with the exception of Jews who suffered on both Fronts from Hitler).
All those countries that ended up behind the Iron Curtain suffered more from Stalin than Hitler (with the exception of Jews).
These countries that were under the boot of Russians during and after WWII will fight for their lives to never be under the Russian boot again.
Ukraine is at the top of the list. Belarus wishes they were free of Russia and could join EU.
Incredibly cramped, and making any ships sailing the narrow channels sitting ducks to offensive forces. I would never consider sailing a heavy man of war thru the tight squeeze(s).
There exists some sort of pact that allows/disallows warships to transit the straits.
It is funny how countries stretch and overstretch.
US of course is #1 Best Super at this. Trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives wasted for nothing, not to mention millions of foreigners, who donât count, obviously. All they had to do after 9/11 was find, fix and finish bin Laden and assorted Islamic goons. Instead they took a nice detour into Iraq, and stayed in Afghanistan 10 years after he was killed - in Pakistan.
Russia is re-engaging in the same game, in Syria. Crimea and Donetsk are in its backyard, but Syria is not. Not to mention the thousands of Russian mercenaries in Africa. No shortage of hard men in Russia, it seems.
China with its Belt and Road initiative. Cautious, low-key, but driven nonetheless. The dragon is a heavy animal who needs a lot of runway to start its flight. But once airborne, itâs impossible to battle against. Taiwan is already toast. Africa is Chinaâs new hinterland and nothing the West can do about it.
The Ukraine drama is a small provocation by Russia, daring the West to do something about it. If we had any leaders with cojones, they would land US troops in harmâs way in Ukraine and give the Russians a bloody nose in the East Ukraine. Just to call Putinâs bluff. But of course the putative leader of one party is Putinâs lady dog and that of the other is senile. So no hope of any true leadership.