Musk's Mea Culpa

https://insideevs.com/news/781539/elon-musk-doge-regrets/

  • Elon Musk’s political stint hurt Tesla’s image and coincided with a sharp global sales drop.
  • Tesla is losing market share around the world, and Elon’s time at DOGE is partly to blame.
  • Tesla hopes its cheaper Standard models and the Cybercab will help it on the sales charts.

*if he could do it again, he wouldn’t do DOGE. *

“Instead of doing DOGE, I would have, basically, built … worked on my companies,” Musk said.

He went on to say that “They wouldn’t have been burning the cars” if he hadn’t made things political.
duh

So it appears that Musk will return to running his businesses.

The article attempts to link Tesla sales decline to Musk’s political activities.
I believe that only one factor.
IMO Tesla in 2025 faced increased competition from other EV manufacturers. I believe it was inevitable that Tesla market share would decline. Also all manufacturers have been effected by the reduced adoption of EVs within the USA and ending of tax credit.

BEV market share dropped to 5.1% following EV tax credit expiration, while EV incentives remain high

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Attempts? Is there anything more clear than owners of Teslas driving around with bumper stickers apologizing for owning the car? As one who bought electric and wouldn’t even consider at Tesla, “attempts”?

Sure. And sometimes you drive the customers right up to the other product. See: Bud Light’s hiring of a transgender “influencer” to boost sales, or New Coke’s reformulation. Musk cratered Tesla’s image of environmentally friendly faster than my dog spotting a dropped cookie, and did nothing to convince the red-hat hard core to embrace EVs.

Yes, Tesla’s market share was bound to decline with the arrival of increased competitive offerings. But he has handed them the market, rather than fighting for it. Better products (and worse), different price points, updated styling, and, of course, his political animus has driven customers into the arms of his competitors. It’s hard to see how he undoes the damage (although memories are short, so in a couple years, if he does everything right, maybe it’s OK). Tip: the Cybertruck ain’t it.

Oh, here’s one: do you think the EV tax incentive is coming back in the next 3 years, given that the head politician has taken massive contributions from big oil?

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YES!

Market share is widely misunderstood! In a steady market like toothpaste it is a reliable indicator but in a nascent sub-market it is not. Let’s create a simple scenario.

Year Tesla Other EVs ICE Total Tesla EV share
2020 10 0 0 10 100.00%
2021 900 100 0 1,000 90.00%
Year Tesla Other EVs ICE Total Tesla CAR share
2020 10 0 9,990 10,000 0.10%
2021 900 100 9,000 10,000 9.00%

The Captain

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Just a couple years ago, the Tesla bull narrative was that Tesla had a several year lead on the competition, and so other companies would never be able to catch up. That made some sense, but Tesla didn’t press their advantage. They didn’t introduce the affordable mass market car which had been part of their master plans–that’s the segment where they are really taking it on the chin.

The roadster II is stuck in limbo. The older models are in desperate need of a refresh. Everybody except Tesla is jumping in the electric delivery van market–which seems to be an ideal use for EVs.

The bet now seems to be on Optimus and cybercab. We’ve talked about Optimus enough elsewhere. We can get a sense where Tesla is with cybercab by looking at where they are in the permitting process. Which is to say, Tesla hasn’t applied for AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction. Waymo by contrast in process or recieved AV permits in something like 20 cities.

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Of course. Here’s the kicker though: The EV market is growing. Not as fast as many expected, but still pretty rapidly. However, Tesla revenues, deliveries, and margins are declining even in a rapidly growing market. All of those are bad trends.

That said, Tesla is still in pretty good shape for a car company. But it is a pale shadow of where it was projected to be.

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Or could have been if Boy Genius Trillionaire had just stuck to what he’s good at, instead of what he’s not.

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November sales figures are in:

Tesla model sales are down BUT are still #1 [22800]& 2 [8200] in top sales.
#3 Chevrolet Equinox EV is coming up fast [6720] but still lags.
#4 Ford Mustang Mach E [3180] heavily hit by ending of tax credit.
The rest have sold 2150 units and under.

The base Chevrolet Equinox is $5k cheaper than Tesla standard RWD & $10k cheaper than Tesla premium RWD Model Y but heavier, less range, less power, less cargo space & has an inferior bumper to bumper warranty.
The next step up of the Chevrolet Equinox FWD is equal in pricing with the premium RWD Tesla Y.

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