My biggest declines.

Someone asked me off board if this was the worst downturn I’ve ever lived through so I thought he and others might benefit from a response. Here are some examples. I rounded off fractions of percentages for easier reading. This is Off Topic so please don’t start a thread! If you feel you must tell me something please write off-board.

On Nov 9, 2021 I hit a high of up 93%. I finished the year at up 40%. Since 1.40 divided by 1.93 equals .72, I had dropped back 28% from my high.

This year, in three weeks, I am at 71% of where I started the year, down 29%.

Just for fun, .71 times the 140% (up 40%), where I finished last year (2021), brings me in at 99% of where I started last year, or basically back to Jan 1, 2021. No big deal! With the drop at the end of last year plus the drop this year, I’ve just given back my gains from last year. The year before that (2020), was the big year where I was up 233%, and more than tripled my portfolio.

Where am I from last year’s high on Nov 9th. Well .72 times .71 equals .51 of where I started last year, so I’m down roughly 49% from my all time high last year. (Actually a little less, 48.7%, but I’ve been rounding). But if you think about it, that high last year of up 93% was way over the top anyway, piled on to up 233% the year before. :grinning:

Let’s compare with some previous downturns:

In November, 2008 I was down 69% from the beginning of the year (at 31% of what I started with). Now that was scary! And if you counted that 2007’s close was down 8% from its high, I was actually down 71.5% from that 2007 high. That means I had only 28.5% of what I had had at the moment of that high.

I finished 2008 down 62.5%, for the year, at 37.5% of where I started the year. The next year, in 2009, I was up 111%. It still didn’t get me back to the start of 2008, but I sure felt better.

This current decline is nothing compared to 2008! And for good reason!

And here’s the miracle! The ten years from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2009 was referred to as “The Lost Decade for the Stock Market.” You can even Google it. The markets went nowhere. The S&P was down 1% after 10 years. And my portfolio was up 568% in those same 10 years, in spite of 2008 !!! It compounded to 668% of where I started. It had more than sextupled and almost septupled. I wondered what they were talking about: “The Lost Decade?”

Here’s another example : In 2019 I went from up 77% in July to up 10% in Oct.
1.10 divided by 1.77 equals .62 so I was down 38% from my top. Not that different from the down 49% that I am down from last year’s top now.

I finished 2019 up 28% by the way.

And another example: In 2020 I was up 34% on Feb 19 and down 16% on Mar 16 (Covid). That was a fall of 37% in less than a month. I finished the year up 233% for the year, at 333% of where I started, more than tripling in a year. Even though I had been down 16% in mid-March.

Past results are no guarantee for the future, and I’m not recommending anything to anyone, just giving you some of my past figures.